Professional Documents
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CH 02
CH 02
Financial
Management
Alan Shapiro & Peter Moles
Adapted by Dr. Jayanta Kumar Seal
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
CHAPTER 2
The Determination of
Exchange Rates
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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CHAPTER OVERVIEW:
CHAPTER OVERVIEW:
2.1 SETTING THE EQUILIBRIUM SPOT
EXCHANGE RATE
2.2 EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASSET
MARKET MODEL OF EXCHANGE RATES
2.3 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF CENTRAL BANK
INTERVENTION
2.4 THE EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
B. When Americans purchase German
goods:
1. Foreign currency demand derived from the
demand for foreign country’s goods, services, and
financial assets,
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Demand for € in the U.S.
$/€
D
$1.20/€
$1.10/€
$1.00/€
Qty
At higher exchange rates, Americans demand fewer euros and
vice versa.
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
2. Foreign currency supply
a. derived from the foreign country’s demand for
local goods.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Supply of € in the U.S.
$/€
$1.20/€
S
$1.10/€
$1.00/€
Qty
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The $/€ Equilibrium Rate
$/€ Equilibrium
D
S
$1.10
Qty
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Equilibrium Exchange Rates
C. How exchange rates change:
1. Increased demand
as more foreign goods are demanded, more
of the foreign currency is demanded at each
possible exchange rate.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Equilibrium Exchange Rates
3. Home currency depreciation
b. conversely,
the foreign currency’s value has
appreciated against the
home currency.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The US$ Depreciates when
$/€ D’
D
$1.20/€
S
$1.10/€
Q1 Q2
Qty
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Computing a currency appreciation:
= (e1 - e0)/e0
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Computing a currency depreciation:
= (e0 - e1)/e1
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
Seal
Equilibrium Exchange Rates
D. Factors affecting exchange rates:
1. Inflation rates.
2. Interest rates.
3. GNP growth rates.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations and the Asset Market
Model of Exchange Rates
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
C. The nature of money and currency values:
1. Asset market model
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
2. Soundness of a nation’s economic policies
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
3. Expectations and central bank behavior
exchange rates are also influenced by
expectations of central bank behavior.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
D. Central bank reputations and currency
values:
1. Central bank
the nation’s official monetary authority.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
2. Price stability and central bank independence
when the bank limits its focus to price
stability, it is more likely to succeed in its
goal.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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Expectations
3. Currency board
‒ exists where there is no central bank
‒ instead the board issues notes
‒ has no discretionary monetary policy.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Fundamentals of
Central Bank Interventions
2.3 HOW REAL EXCHANGE RATES AFFECT
RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS
A. Appreciation:
– Domestic prices increase
relative to foreign prices.
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Fundamentals of Central Bank
Interventions
B. Currency depreciation:
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Fundamentals of Central Bank
Interventions
C. Foreign exchange market intervention
Mechanics of intervention
Sterilized vs unsterilized intervention
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Fundamentals of Central Bank
Interventions
D. The effects of foreign exchange market
intervention:
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Equilibrium Approach
2.4 THE EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO
EXCHANGE RATES
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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The Equilibrium Approach
B. The equilibrium theory of exchange
rates and its implications:
“International Financial Management” by Alan Shapiro and Peter Moles adapted by Jayanta
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