Chapter 5 : Probability

History of probability
 The foundations of probability were laid by two French mathematicians of 17 th
century- Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665) in
connection with gambling problems.

 Later on, it was developed by

 Jacob Bernoulli(1654-1705)
 Abraham de moivre (1667-1754)
 Pierre Simon Laplace (1749-1827)

modern probability theory which consists of few assumptions and rules was
developed in 20s and 30s of this century.
 Probability
 The word probability has two basic meanings,

1. a quantitative measure of uncertainty

2. A measure of degree of belief in a particular statement or problem.

There are abundant examples in every day life where probability is used as a degree of belief or
measure of uncertainty.

 What are the chances of rain showers tomorrow?

 What is chance of Pakistan to win the toss in todays match?
 What are the chances X brand of PC will survive 10,000 hours of operation without repair?
 what are the chances of heart attack of a patient?
 Some basic term or concepts
Experiment
means a planned activity or process which yield some results or outcomes.
Random experiments
An experiment which produces different results even though, it is repeated a large number
of times under essentially similar conditions is called random experiment.
Examples:
1. Tossing a coin
2. Throwing a die
3. Drawing a card from 52 cards
4. Measuring the current in a thin copper wire
5. call durations in a day
6. Examining a fuse
 Properties of a random experiment

1. The experiment can be repeated , practically or theoretically any number of time.

2. The experiment always has two or more possible outcomes.

3. The outcome of each repetition is unpredictable in advance.

 Trial
It is single performance of an experiment.
 Outcome
the result obtained from an experiment or a trial is called an outcome.
 Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample
space .
It is denoted as S.
The elements of sample space are called sample points.
Examples of sample space

 Tossing a coin S= {H,T}

 Throwing a die S={ 1,2,3,4,5,6}
 tossing two coin
 Throwing two die
 Event;
An event is an individual outcome or a set of outcomes of a random experiment. Or any subset of a
sample space is an event.
Simple event
Compound event
Exhaustive events
Mutually exclusive events.
Simple event

 An event that contains exactly one sample point is defined

as simple event or elementary event.
 Example
two coins are tossed, the event A={HH} is a simple event.
 Compound event
 An event consists of more than one sample points, is defined as
compound event.
 Example
 1: let B be the event that at least one head appears in tossing two
coins
B={HT,TH,TT}
 Mutually Exclusive events;

 Two events A and B of a single experiment are said to be

mutually exclusive or disjoint events if and only if they cannot
both occur at the same time. That is they have no points in
common.
 Example:
 A product can either be a defective or non defective.
 a student either qualifies or fail
 When a die is rolled , outcomes are mutually exclusive as we get
one and only one of six possible outcomes 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Exhaustive events;

 Events are said to be exhaustive events, when union of

mutually exclusive events is the entire sample space.
 Example:
 Tossing a coin
Equally likely events

 Events are said to be equally likely events, when they have equal chance of occurrence at
each trial.
 Example,
1. Examining three fuse in sequence
2. Tossing a coin
Multiplication rule
 If an experiment consists of two sub-experiments such that one has n 1 outcomes
and other has n2 outcomes, then the combined sample space consists of n1×n2
outcomes.
 Example,
1. if a die and a coin are thrown at the same time the number of possible outcomes
is 2×6 = 12.
Similarly, if an experiment has K possible outcomes in a single trial then in n
trails it will have K x n possible outcomes.
 Example,
1. Tossing a coin twice time , we have 2×2 = 4 possible outcomes.
2. Similarly, if the die is thrown twice, we have 6×6 = 62 = 36 possible outcomes.
Permutation rule
 A permutation is an “arrangement” of n objects in a “specific order”.
 The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called a
permutation. It is written as nPr, and the formula is:

n
Pr = n!/(n-r)!
Combination rule

 A “selection” of distinct objects “without any regard to order” is called a combination.

The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted nCr and is given
by the formula:
n
Cr = n!/r!(n-r)!
Example:
 A bridge hand of any any 13 cards selected from a 52 cards without regards to order.
There are:
 52!/13!*39!
Question:1
(permutation or combination)
 A student club consists of 6 students of which a three
person committee consisting of a president, a secretary,
and a treasure is to be chosen. In how many ways we can
choose this committee?
Question:2
(permutation or combination)
 Now suppose a student has 3 friends among these 6 students and
wants them to be elected at these positions but does not care which
friend is elected at which position. That’s the order does not matter.
In how many ways 3 students can be chosen out of 6 students?
Definition of probability

Classical definition:
 If a random experiment can produce n mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes,
and if m out to these outcomes are considered favorable to the occurrence of a certain
event A, then the probability of the event A, denoted by P(A), is defined as the ratio
P(A) = =
=
Drawback:
It's the simplest definition of probability. However, this definition is not applicable if the
assumption of equally likely does not hold.
Empirical or relative definition of probability

 If a random experiment is repeated a large number of times, say n, under identical

conditions and if an event A is observed to occur m times, then the probability of A is
defined as,

 P(A) =

 As n → ∞, the ratio m/ n becomes stable at its numerical value.

Assumptions of probability

1. For any event A,

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1; the probability of any thing lies between 0 and
1. Negative probability has no meanings.
2. P(S) = 1; the probability of the entire sample space is 1
Questions

Q1:A coin is tossed twice, what is the probability that

i) a head appears on both?
ii) at least one head occurs?
Q2:
Two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that a sum of 8 or more dots occurs (i.e. the
sum of dots on both dice is at least 8.)?
Tree diagram

Example 1
Tree diagram

 Example 2:
an automobile manufacturer provides vehicles equipeed with selected option. Each vehicle is
ordered
 With and without automatic transmission
 With and without air conditioning
 With one of three choices of a stereo system
 One of four exterior colors

tree diagram for possible no. of outcomes.

 Laws of probability
 There are some probability rules, that make a probability problem easier to handle. Sometimes the
probabilities of certain events are known to us and we can use them to calculate the probability of
another event. Some events can be written as the union or intersection of two or more events and
sometimes an event can be split into two or more events.
 For example
1. If a die is thrown twice, we may be interested in finding the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11. ⇒
Now here we have two outcomes 7 or 11, if either one occurs we consider it our favorite outcome. ⇒ We
can consider them as separate events that’s let A denotes the event that a sum of 7 occurs and let B be the
event that a sum of 11 occurs.
2. If a die is thrown twice, we may be interested in finding the probability of getting a 3 on one die and 5
on the other die. (beware here, we are not talking about a total or sum of dots)
⇒ Here again we have two outcomes 3 and 5, if both occurs we consider it our favorite outcome.
⇒ Again we can consider them as separate events that’s let A denotes the event that 3 occurs and let B be
the event that 5 occurs
 Addition law
 This law has two forms:
1. If A and B are any two events then
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)−P(A∩B)
2. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)− P(A∩B)
P(A∩B) = 0
So
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Example.
 Consider a sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,9,15}. A number is chosen at random, what is the
probability that the number is an even number or a prime number? (prime number: a natural
number greater than 1, has no divisor other than itself and 1.)
 Solution:. Let A be event of an even number so A = {2,4,6} and
 B be the event of a prime number so B = {2,3,5}.
 We need P(A or B) = P(A∪B).
 Here P(A) = 3/ 8 and P(B) = 3/ 8.
 P(A∩B) = 1/
 P(A∪B) =P(A) + P(B)−P(A∩B) = 3/ 8 + 3/ 8 − 1 /8 = 5 /8
 Which is the first form of the law of addition in probability, as mentioned above.
Questions

Q1:
A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that the
card is face card or a club ♣ card.
Hint: We know that there are 12 face cards (the cards with faces of King, Queen and Jack) and
13 cards for each suit (diamond ♦, club ♣, heart ♥, spade ♠)
Q2:
A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that the
card is a face card or a club ♣ card.