• Concept of security in 21st Century.

• Power: Balance of Power, Elements of National Power.

• Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision making and
analysis
• National Interest & Sovereignty
 Identify the type of threat.
1. If CPEC does not become a reality as anticipated?
2. Pakistan is 7th worst hit country by Climate Change.
3. If you experience draughts and floods?
4. Pakistan lost 70,000 human losses in War on Terror.
5. If India divert the flow of Pakistani waters?
6. Pakistani society is polarized on ethnic, sectarian, and lingual
lines?
7. Pakistan and Turkey have experienced frequent military
coups?
 Old concept of Security …

 “Security is absence of threat”. Arnold Wolfers

 Absence of military threats from other countries.

 Security in 21st century.

 “Security is about the ability of a state to maintain its

independence, ideology, and functional integrity”.
Barry Buzan

 This concept of security is expansion from Military to

political, economic, societal, environmental security.

 It is security against the soft threats that emanates from within

the country .
 New threats gave this new realization

 1973 oil crisis signified the economic security.

 Massive industrialization caused climate change;

 And climate change caused floods, draught, acid rains, disturb

rain cycle, and disruption in rain pattern.
 New Threats and threat perception
 Ethno-nationalism brings separatist tendencies.

 Rise of NSAs, 9/11 dramatically changed security thinking of

the world.

 Mastung incident, PTC Quetta, Bali Bombing, 7/7, Paris

Attacks, Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks, APS Peshawar and
many more.
 Five Sectors of security by Barry Buzan
Societal Security
 Ethnic divisions is a threat in multi-ethnic societies.

 Sectarian divisions – a threat to social cohesion.

 Migration & Refugees causes demographic Shifts.

 Cultural transformation – Westernization.

 Political Security
 When state sovereignty is not challenged.

 There is no state with in a state.

 Successful power transfer from one govt. to other.

 Security against negative political transformation.

1. India can loose secularism to Hinduism.
2. American nationalism.
 Economic Security
 Maximum self-reliance and least dependence on others.
 State must ensure revenues for state sustenance.
 Preference to industrialization.
 Policies must have compatibility with regional and global
economic rules – WTO, free market economy etc.
 Example – US a super power because of economics or
military power?
 Military Security
 Having legal status of arms – IAEA etc.
 Having ability to defend militarily with sophisticated
Technology, Sufficient troops, state of the art training, and
will to fight.
Environment Security
 How climate change hits economy.
But still has security aspects;
 Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food shortage,
Land erosion, floods, Rains, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.
 Environment weapons like HAARP etc.
National Security Mix in 21st century

 Military Capabilities,
 Economic and technological base,
 Democratic political system,
 Cohesive society,
 Strong allies,
 Borders with friendly states,
 Capitalist economy
 Stable social & welfare system.
Power: Elements of
National Power
 Power

 “Ability to influence other”

 “to get others to do what they otherwise would not”

Joseph Nye
 Types of Power

 Hard power = military power, war, use of force, threat of use

of force.

 Soft power is the ability to attract people to your side without

using force. Cultural, Ideological, and Institutional. Joseph
Nye

 Smart Power combination of hard and soft powers.

USA uses smart power vis-à-vis Pak.
National Power

“The power and capability that a state uses to achieve its

national interests”.

Padelford & Lincoln

Elements of National Power

Tangible elements of National Power

1. Military capability,

2. Economy capability.

3. Geography,

4. Population and man power,

5. Industrial & Agricultural output,

7. Resources;
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water
(Human Resources)
Capital/Labour
 Intangible Elements of National Power

 Stable Political & Economic System

 Scientific & Technological base of Education

 National Morals & National Character;

 Leadership

 International standing

 Internal Cohesion

 Bureaucratic & diplomatic efficiency

Balance of Power

“An even distribution of power”.

 “The equilibrium of the power among states in such a way that

no state has dominance over other”.
 Why Balance of Power is so important ?

 It ensures stability,
 Prevents wars,
 Does not allow a dominant power to impose her will upon other
countries.
“I would hold hands with the devil” if it would help beat the
Germans” US president F.D. Roosevelt
Examples;
KSA + Israel Vs. Iran
 Balance of Power
How Balancing is done in given situation?
Either by reducing the power of the heavier or by increasing the
power of the lighter.

(1) Divide and Rule

 For this purpose third party is necessary that may exercise its
authority with force.
 Employed by nations who want to keep the competitor weak.
US and USSR with Germany after WWII.
 (2) Armaments/Disarmament
 The purpose of armament of a nation is to keep up A by keeping
nation B down.
Example - US efforts to disarm N. Korea and Iran
 For both a quantitative evaluation (arms) is required.
(3) Alliances
 Can add to their own power with the power of other nations.
(Alliance)
Example – Indo-US alliance against China.
 (4) Intervention

 Russian intervention in Georgia 2008 & Ukraine.

 Indian intervention in East Pakistan 1971

 (5) Buffer States
 A buffer state is a small or weak state between two rival great
powers.

 It prevents conflict between them.

 A buffer state is a mutually agreed upon area.

Poland between USSR and Germany

Afghanistan between Britain and Russia
 The “Balancer” (who holds the balance)

 Balancer is a country that help decide who will win or lose?

 Which country can be a balancer B/W;

1. India and China?

2. China and US?
3. Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision
making and analysis
 Foreign Policy
“Strategies that governments use to guide their actions in the
international arena to pursue and protect national interests in given
situations.”

 FP is designed to Project and protect the national interest

abroad.

 Foreign refers to things that exist beyond the territorial

boundaries

 Policy – guideline and approach to achieve the objectives.

 Stages in foreign policy decision making

 1Assessment of the international and domestic political environment.

 2 Goal setting.

 3 Determination of policy options.

 4 Formal decision making process.

 5 Implementation of chosen policy option.

 Factors influencing the Foreign Policy

External Factors;

 A country’s position in international power structure

 Geographic Location

 Alliances
 Internal Factors;

 Military Power

 Economy

 Leadership

 Quality of Diplomacy
Graham Allison’s three models of
Foreign Policy Decision Making;
1- Rational Actor Model

1. Defining & analyze the problem

2. Prioritizing the Goal
3. Developing alternatives
4. Evaluating each alternatives
5. Selecting the best options
6. Execution of decision
2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

 Leadership cannot make decision solely on its own.

 OPM is best for satisfactory decision making.

 Decision making is done by qualified and professional

individuals.
 (3) Bureaucratic Model.
 This model explains the relationship between Bureaucrats and
elite politicians.

 Key individuals in critical positions with great influence.

 They have different priorities.

 They have different organizational positions and commitments:

 The case of Iraq War

US President
George Bush

V. President
Dick Cheney

National Security
Secretary Defense Secretary of State
Advisor
Don. Rumsfield General Colin Powel
Condoleezza Rice
 National Interest
 The goals that states pursue to maximize what they perceive to
be selfishly best for their country.
 The most important national interest is the survival of the state.
 Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished national
interest of every nation

“Political traditions and political cultural context with in which a

nation formulates its foreign policy”.
H. J. Morgenthau
 Types of National Interests

 Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural identity,

guarding against external aggression.

 Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad.

 General: in the field of trade, diplomacy and international law.

 Sovereignty
 Sovereignty: A government has the right, in principle, to do
whatever it wants in its own territory.

 The principle of supreme authority within a territory

 In modern times, sovereignty is almost inextricably bound with

territoriality.

 It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and cannot be transferred –

“Rousseau”
 Questions …

 What are the determinants of foreign Policy of Pakistan?

 Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the Balance of Power in

South Asia vis-à-vis India.

 Analyse the Middle Eastern politics between KSA and Iran

through the prism of balance of power.