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Fidelity Investment Managers: All-Terrain Investing: November 2010
Fidelity Investment Managers: All-Terrain Investing: November 2010
Fidelity Investment Managers: All-Terrain Investing: November 2010
November 2010
Where are we in the economic cycle? What are the issues of the day? Where next? What are the implications for asset allocation?
Inflation
Rate hikes
Overheat
COMMODITIES STOCKS`
Stagflation
CASH
Reflation
Rate cuts
Recovery
Jan 2001
July 2008 May 2010
Mar 2003
Mar 2009
Mar 2004
Aug 2009
July 2007
...
July 2008
May 2010
Source: Fidelity as at September 2010. For illustrative purposes only. This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
Source: Fidelity as at September 2010. For illustrative purposes only. This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
RECOVERY
OVERHEAT
REFLATION
STAGFLATION
INFLATION FALLS
Global Growth Scorecard and G7 real GDP growth Global Growth Scorecard level
4
3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Growth Scorecard G7 real GDP growth YOY% (RHS)
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6
GDP %
Source: Datastream, global growth scorecard to Q3 2010, G7 GDP to Q1 2010. Note: the Lead Indicator (global growth score) is a diffusion index taking into account central banks stance, OECD leading indicators, business confidence and consensus GDP forecasts. It is pushed forward 6 months on this chart. This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
OECD Lead Indicator and Stocks vs. Bonds 160 140 Equity/Bonds Ratio 120 100 80 60 Odd years have been upswings Even years have been downswings 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 OECD lead indicator%
50
98
99
00
-20
OECD lead indicator, 6m % change Equity/Bonds Ratio (MSCI AC World index vs. JPM Global Government Bond index)
Source: Datastream, Equity/Bonds ratio to 09/09/2010, OECD Lead Indicator to 15/06/2010. Note: This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
All years
Even years
Odd years
Global Stocks
p.a.
Source: Datastream, MSCI AC World Index (Total Return) to 31/05/2010. Note: This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
no inflation threat
In the next 12 months, where do you see the inflation rate heading?
A. Upwards B. Not much change C. Downwards
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3% drop
5% drop
8% drop
4% drop
2% drop
Core CPI
Source: Datastream. Output Gap to Q3 2010, US Core CPI to Q2 2010. OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Core CPI: Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy.
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6 5 4
6 5 4
3
2 1 0
Mar-04
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-06 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-02 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-09 Sep-10 Mar-01
3
2 1 0
Mar-09
Mar-02 Mar-10
12
13
Neutral
Overweight
Bonds
Cash
Source: Fidelity as at end September 2010. The current allocation is referred to Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund. Neutral: same weight as benchmark. Benchmark:10.0% DJ - UBS Commodity Ind TR; 15.0% FTSE All Share (NUK); 10.0% GBP 1W LIBID; 40.0% BofA ML Ster Lg Cap (NUK); 20.0% MSCI AC Wrld Ind (NUK); 5.0% EPRA/NAREIT Dev (G)
14
Comparing recent markets with 2003-04 110 Indexes rebased with peak to 100 100 90 80 70 S&P around 2003 110 Indexes rebased with peak to 100 100 90 80 70 S&P rebased now
60
50
60
50
40
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
40
Source: Datastream. S&P 500 to 09/09/2010, data rebased to have the maximum index level at 100. S&P 500 in 2003 has been graphically shifted to have its maximum at 100.
15
Source: Fidelity as at September 2010. For illustrative purposes only. This represents the opinion of the portfolio manager.
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RECOVERY
OVERHEAT
REFLATION
STAGFLATION
INFLATION FALLS
risks of double-dip rising but inflation is not a risk defensively positioned for now but will look for buying opportunities as additional stimulus takes effect flexible multi-asset approach ideal in a world of short, volatile economic cycles
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Recovery
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Cash
Overheat
Stagflation
Reflation
Recovery
Overheat
Reflation
2007
2008
2009
2010
Bonds
Commodities
Real Estate
Equities
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Fund 22.6% Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund Sector 4.5% IMA Cautious Managed Sector Average
1 year Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund Quartile rank % peer group beaten 9.4% 2 69%
Source of performance: Morningstar from 01.02.2007 To 30.09.2010 on bid-bid basis with net income reinvested. Fund launched 22.01.2007. Peer group is IMA Cautious Managed sector.
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3 year risk/return of OBSR rated funds in the IMA Cautious Managed Sector
25 20 15 Return (%) 10
JPM Cautious Ttl Rtn Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Henderson MM Dist Jupiter Merlin Income Portfolio M&G Cautious Multi Asset Henderson MM Inc & Growth Inv. Perp Distribution Investec Cautious Mngd Threadneedle Equity and Bond Aviva Inv FoF Cautious
5 0 -5
14
16
Source: Morningstar Workstation. Basis: bid-bid, net income reinvested at UK basic rate of tax to 30.09.10. Note, Thames River Cautious Mngd, Thames River Distribution and SWIP MM Diversity have OBSR ratings but do not appear since they do not have 3 year performance records.
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In summary
Volatility will remain, so diversification across a range of asset classes is key; but its essential to adjust the asset allocation across the economic cycle
Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund has proven performance through the cycle since launch over three years ago 97% of competitors beaten
Morningstar RatingTM
Source of performance: Morningstar from 01.02.07 to 30.09.10 on bid-bid basis with net income reinvested. Fund launched 22.01.07. Peer group is IMA Cautious Managed sector. Copyright 2010 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Morningstar Rating as of 30.09.10 in the Sterling Cautious Balanced Category.
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Compliance information
This presentation is for Investment Professionals only, and should not be relied upon by private investors Annualised growth rates, total return, sector median performance and ranks Data Source - 2010 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and(3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
FIL Limited, established in Bermuda, and its subsidiaries are commonly referred to as Fidelity Investment Managers. Fidelity, Fidelity Investment Managers, and the globe logo are trademarks of FIL Limited.
Due to the greater possibility of default, an investment in corporate bonds is generally less secure than an investment in Government bonds. Default risk is based on the issuer's ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. No statements or representations made in this document are legally binding on Fidelity or the recipient. Issued by FIL Investments International, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. SSO2499/0411
23 FIDELITY INVESTMENT MANAGERS
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
42.2%
5.0%
13.8%
26.5 %
28.6 %
35.7 %
24.9 %
14.3 %
4.8 %
23.1%
2
3 4 5 6
22.8%
9.5% 7.3% 5.8% -6.0%
4.7%
-1.3% -4.3% -14.3 -17.4%
9.6%
3.8% -4.3% -7.1% -27.3%
20.3 %
11.8 % 11.5 % 4.0 % 3.5 %
8.2 %
7.5 % 6.8 % 4.3 % 1.8 %
29.0 %
23.0 % 16.6 % 8.3 % 4.6 %
5.8 %
4.6 % 4.5 % 0.7 % -10.5 %
7.7 %
5.5 % 5.3 % 3.3 % -8.5 %
4.3 %
-8.4 % -10.9 % -17.4 % -27.6 %
16.4%
11.4% 5.9% 3.7% 0.6%
10.5%
7.8% 5.6% 3.4% 0.3%
20.6%
19.2% 10.4% 6.4% 0.7%
Bonds
Cash
Global Stocks
Commodities
Property
Multi-Asset Mix
Source: Morningstar and Fidelity from 01.01.00 to 30.09.10. Data shows ranking of annual returns for each asset class and the multi-asset mix. Cash GBP 1W LIBID, Global Stocks MSCI World - TOT RETURN IND (), Property - FTSE EPRA/NAREIT DEVELOPED $ - TOT RETURN IND (~ ), Commodities - DJ UBS-Future Commodity Ind TR - RETURN IND. (OFCL)( ), Bonds - ML broad market IND TR (). Multi-Asset Mix = Fidelity MASF Benchmark (difference: bonds: ML BROAD MARKET () - TOT RETURN IND, in place of ML Sterling Lrg Cap Index).
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25
Under-weight Over-weight
10.0 15.0 20.0 -5.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 0.0 5.0
6.2.07 16.3.07 30.3.07 18.4.07 9.5.07 22.6.07 12.7.07 22.8.07 20.9.07 22.10.07 5.11.07 9.11.07 12.12.07 10.1.08 24.1.08 19.2.08 18.3.08 11.4.08 15.5.08 22.5.08 20.6.08 14.7.08 24.7.08 7.8.08 25.9.08 3.10.08 14.10.08 14.11.08 19.12.08 31.12.08 14.1.09 17.2.09 27.3.09 30.4.09 7.5.09 4.6.09 9.7.09 18.8.09 24.9.09 16.10.09 23.11.09 15.12.09 31.01.10 05.02.10 10.03.10 27.04.10 14.05.10 28.05.10
Under-weight
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0
Under-weight
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0
Over-weight
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Growth assets
Store of value
Over-weight
Sterling Cash
Commodities
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Asset class
UK Bonds
Property
8.0
5%
10%
35%
10%
40%
Benchmark weight
Trade dates
6.2.07 16.3.07 30.3.07 18.4.07 9.5.07 22.6.07 12.7.07 22.8.07 20.9.07 22.10.07 5.11.07 9.11.07 12.12.07 10.1.08 24.1.08 19.2.08 18.3.08 11.4.08 15.5.08 22.5.08 20.6.08 14.7.08 24.7.08 7.8.08 25.9.08 3.10.08 14.10.08 14.11.08 19.12.08 31.12.08 14.1.09 17.2.09 27.3.09 30.4.09 7.5.09 4.6.09 9.7.09 18.8.09 24.9.09 16.10.09 23.11.09 15.12.09 31.01.10 05.02.10 10.03.10 27.04.10 14.05.10 28.05.10
6.2.07 16.3.07 30.3.07 18.4.07 9.5.07 22.6.07 12.7.07 22.8.07 20.9.07 22.10.07 5.11.07 9.11.07 12.12.07 10.1.08 24.1.08 19.2.08 18.3.08 11.4.08 15.5.08 22.5.08 20.6.08 14.7.08 24.7.08 7.8.08 25.9.08 3.10.08 14.10.08 14.11.08 19.12.08 31.12.08 14.1.09 17.2.09 27.3.09 30.4.09 7.5.09 4.6.09 9.7.09 18.8.09 24.9.09 16.10.09 23.11.09 15.12.09 31.01.10 05.02.10 10.03.10 27.04.10 14.05.10 28.05.10
Trad e date s
Trade dates
Guidance range
25-45%
30-50%
0-20%
0-15%
0-20%
Fund 22.6% Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund Sector 4.5% IMA Cautious Managed Sector Average
Feb-09
Phase: Reflation
Aug-09
Feb-10
Mar 09Aug 09
Aug-10
Phase: Overheat Aug 09May 10 Phase: Reflation May 10-Sep 10
Phase: Recovery
Jul 08Mar 09
1.1% 0.5%
-0.6% -6.2%
-6.3% -14.1%
15.5% 16.2%
9.3% 6.5%
5.0% 5.2%
Source of performance: Morningstar from 01.02.07 to 30.09.10 on bid-bid basis with net income reinvested. Fund launched 22.01.07. Peer group is IMA Cautious Managed sector. Note: This definition of the economic cycle phases represents the opinion of the portfolio manager, based on his proprietary research as at October 2010.
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