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Lecture 3 Utility Theory
Lecture 3 Utility Theory
Khurshid Ahmad,
Chair of Computer Science
Trinity College, Dublin, IRELAND
13-15th Feb. 2013
Utility Theory and Beyond
Lecture available on
www.cs.tcd.ie/Khurshid.Ahmad/Teaching/Behavioural_Finance/Utility
_Theory_Beyond.pdf
Prices Change and Traded
Volumes Fluctuate
There is a realisation that the various stakeholders in
financial markets across the world that we do not
understand fully how prices of financial instruments
change with time.
Anders Ekholm and Daniel Pasternack (2007). Overconfidence and Investor Size. European
Financial Management, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2007, 82–98
Prices Change and Traded
Volumes Fluctuate
Anders Ekholm and Daniel Pasternack (2007). Overconfidence and Investor Size. European
Financial Management, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2007, 82–98
Notes on Bounded Rationality
http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/operationalResearch/pdf/working%20paper%20OR64.pdf
Utility Theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_utility_hypothesis
Extended Utility Theory
Daniel Kahneman& Amos Tversky. (1979) Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Econometrica, Vol. 47 (No. 2) (Mar., 1979), pp. 263-292
Expected Utility Theory
Risk Averse
Rational Utility
beings
are risk
averse
Quantity
Irrational Behaviour of Otherwise
Rational Agents (1936)
Keynes, John Maynard (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
London: Macmillan (reprinted 2007)
Irrational Behaviour of Otherwise
Rational Agents (2008)
Tetlock, Paul C. (2008). Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the StockMarket. Journal of Finance.
Paul C. Tetlock , Saar-Tsechansky, Mytal, and Mackskassy, Sofus (2005). More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms’
Fundamentals. (http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty/Paul.Tetlock/papers/TSM_More_Than_Words_09_06.pdf)
Utility Theory
There are
risk- Risk Averse Risk Neutral
averse
people
and there
Utility
are risk-
seekers Risk Seeker
and there
are some
who are
risk
neutral Quantity
Utility Theory and After
Stuart Mill
(1806-1876)
Maynard Keynes
(1883-1946)
Stuart Mill
(1806-1876)
Maynard Keynes
(1883-1946)
Barberis, Nicholas., Huang Ming., and Santos, Tano. (2001). Prospect Theory
and Asset Prices. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol CXVI (Iss. 1)
(available at http://web.cenet.org.cn/upfile/881.pdf
Utility Theory and After
Barberis, Nicholas., Huang Ming., and Santos, Tano. (2001). Prospect Theory
and Asset Prices. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol CXVI (Iss. 1)
(available at http://web.cenet.org.cn/upfile/881.pdf
Utility Theory and After