E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Maliana

FBS-MOP-19019B
PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS
WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION
AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI
CONTRACT MPW-CS-200029
PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

POPULATION ESTIMATIONS FOR MALIANA
November 14, 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2. TERRITORY CONTEXT
3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS
5. MALIANA
6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS
MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER SUPPLY AND
SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 2
1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
1. INTRODUCTION
This presentation concerns the assignment for “Preparation of Master Plans for
Municipal Capitals Water Supply and Sanitation, Ainaro, Maliana and Suai”.
This project will be closed in June 2021, only 9 months, started last October.
This is a preliminary analysis of the proposed geographical limits for the municipal
capitals, as well as the as well as the corresponding population evolution until the year
2040
The presented results are estimations, not projections, since one does not have the
necessary baseline data to elaborate projections at suco and aldeia levels.
MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

SUPPLY AND SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 4
1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

• The built occupation combines:
a) Several low density nucleus Both structured and linked by
‘streets’, roads, and paths.
b) House sprawl areas

On the planning side, the concept of urban areas currently utilized in Timor-Leste is the
one use by Population Statistics, including (Census Report, 2010):
• “All district capitals were considered as urban areas. The boundaries of the district
capitals are the ones provided in the built up areas.
• “Areas which had following characteristics qualified as urban, which means that they:
a) have a population of about 2,000 people or more;
b) have less than 50 per cent of its population employed in agricultural/fishing
activities and the remaining people employed in the modern sector;
c) have electricity and piped water,
d) have access to schools, medical care and recreational facilities.”

HOWEVER:
• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oAinaro: 3.366 inhabitants;
oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;
oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.
• Even knowing the limits of the enumeration sections, it does not follow that the water
supply areas should be coincident with the limits of capitals, since urban expansion
happens, and water needs do not stop at the administrative limits.

1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION
CRITERIA
The criteria adopted for the definition of urban boundaries were based on the
criteria of continuity and contiguity of housing and urban equipment.
The proposed urban areas consider currently SMASA water supplied areas
Given the above context:
i) What are the criteria for establishing
water supply areas’ boundaries?
ii) Who defines those criteria?

POLITICAL AND URBAN
iii) How far must one go to include, within
PLANNING DECISIONS
the boundaries to be established, the
identified water needs that exist on the
territory?
1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION
ESTIMATIONS
Population data:
Baseline data for estimations.

• Census 2004
• Census 2010
• Census 2015
• Suco’s population registered in 2020, at village (aldeia)
level, shared by Suco leaders
This is the baseline data for population estimations

ESTIMATIONS
AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

GROWTH RATES
SOURCE
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040
UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-

1.94 1.85 1.69 1.46 1.30
LESTE (2100) - AVERAGE
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE
1.68 1.59 1.62 1.58 1.50
(2050) - HIGH
1.60 1.37 1.30 1.25 1.18
(2050) -MEDDIUM
1.51 1.14 0.98 0.89 0.81
(2050) -LOW
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR AINARO
0.47 0.32 0.64 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

0.25 -0.04 0.15 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

1.02 0.96 0.81 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)

ESTIMATIONS
Four scenarios were considered to estimate population’s volume evolution until 2040:
Scenario 1:
Population evolution was calculated applying the annual growth rates considered in
DGE projections for Maliana municipality level. As DGE projections are available
only until 2030, it was assumed that the last annual growth rate considered in DGE
projections (2029-2030) would keep constant until 2040.
Scenario 1I:
As an alternative scenario, it was considered that the growth rates from 2030 to
2040 would go on growing, following the same tendency registered for the period
2028-2029-2030 of DGE’s projections. This scenario results are different from
scenario 1 ones only after 2030.

ESTIMATIONS
Scenario III:
Since growth rates at municipality level can be different and can be expected to be lower
than the growth rates registered in the urban areas of municipality capitals, a third
scenario was considered applying a higher growth rate, based on the average annual
growth rate registered for the study area for the whole period 2004 to 2020. It was
considered the average annual growth rate registered for study area sucos aggregate,
between 2004 and 2020, which was 3,20%. Then it was assumed that, for the period
2020-2040, the population would grow at a constant annual rate that is a half (1,60%) of
the above annual growth rate registered for the period 2004-2020.
This is an optimistic scenario.

ESTIMATIONS
Scenario IV:
Since the differences between the results obtained from scenarios I/II to scenario III are
significant, mainly because DGE projections to Bobonaro municipality seem to be very
low having in account the population growth rates observed between 2004 and 2020, it
was considered a fourth scenario.
This fourth scenario resulted from the application of the growth rates of DGE projections
to Bobonaro municipality based on 2010 Census results (1,23% to 1,37%), which are
much higher than the DGE projections to Bobonaro municipality based on 2015 Census
results (-0,05% to 0,48%). Both DGE projections are done until 2030.
In this fourth scenario we assumed that the last DGE growth rates (1,37% in 2029, and
also 1,37% in 2030) would keep constant until 2040.
This is an intermediate scenario between scenarios I/II and scenario III, although more
close to scenario III.

1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
4. MALIANA
Scenario 1:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario I

Water
Supply
Study Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
24 415 24 405 24 393 24 382 24 374 24 369 24 374 24 395 24 432

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
20 Aldeias 24 485 24 549 24 614 24 679 24 744 24 810 24 875 24 941 25 007
2038 2039 2040
25 073 25 139 25 205

4. MALIANA
Scenario II:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario II

Water
Supply
Study Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
24 415 24 405 24 393 24 382 24 374 24 369 24 374 24 395 24 432

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
20 Aldeias 24 485 25 549 24 628 24 725 24 844 24 989 25 168 25 387 25 656
2038 2039 2040
25 989 26 400 26 909

4. MALIANA
Scenario III:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario III

Water
Supply
Study Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
24 415 24 806 25 203 25 606 26 016 26 432 26 855 27 285 27 721

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
20 Aldeias 28 165 28 616 29 073 29 539 30 011 30 492 30 979 31 475 31 979
2038 2039 2040
32 491 33 010 33 539

4. MALIANA
Scenario IV:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario IV

Water
Supply
Study Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
24 415 24 723 25 037 25 357 25 684 26 021 26 364 26 717 27 081

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
20 Aldeias 27 452 27 828 28 209 28 596 28 987 29 384 29 787 30 195 30 609
2038 2039 2040
31 028 31 453 31 884

4. MALIANA
Population estimation
33539
33010
32491
31979 31884
31475 31453
30979 31028
30492 30609
30011 30195
29539 29787
29384
29073 28987
28616 28596
28165 28209
27721 27828
27285 27452
268552671727081 26909
2643226364 26400
2601626021 25989
25606 25684 25656
25203 25357 25168 25387 2513925205
2480625037
24723 24549 24628
24614 24725
24679 24844
24744 2481024875249412500725073
24989
24415244052439324382243742436924374243952443224485
24415
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV

4. MALIANA
MALIANA – ADMINISTRATIVE POST AND MALIANA WATER SUPPLY STUDY AREA:

SUCOS SUCOS
(SOURCE: DGE, 2019a)

4. MALIANA
HOLSA SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED LAHOMEA SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED

 Bilicou  Aculaca
 Lolo’oa  Guanuha’na
 Oplegul  Lahomea
 Solugolo  Maliana
 Tas (SOURCE: DGE, 2019a)

4. MALIANA
ODOMAU SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED RAIFUN SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED
 Raimaten  Raifun Vila

 Rocon
(SOURCE: DGE, 2019a)

4. MALIANA
RITABOU SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED TAPO MEMO SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED

 Corluli  Samelau  Lepguen (north area)
 Diruaben  Timatan
 Moleana  Uat
 Ritabou (SOURCE: DGE, 2019a)

4. MALIANA
EXISTING WATER SUPPLY AREA
Bobonaro water supply

area divided into four
zones:
• Zone A
• Zone B
• Zone C
• Zone D

4. MALIANA
PROPOSED MALIANA WATER SUPPLY AREA
Area ≈ 15,6 km2
Pop. Density
Scenario (Inhab./km2)
2040
I 1 616
II 1 725
III 2 150
IV 2 044

1. INTRODUCTION
5. MALIANA
OBRIGADU BARAK

E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Maliana

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Maliana

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

FBS-MOP-19019B

PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

November 14, 2023

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;

oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

ii) Who defines those criteria?

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

Baseline data for estimations.

This is the baseline data for population estimations

AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

Population evolution estimation – Scenario I

24 415 24 405 24 393 24 382 24 374 24 369 24 374 24 395 24 432

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario II

24 415 24 405 24 393 24 382 24 374 24 369 24 374 24 395 24 432

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario III

24 415 24 806 25 203 25 606 26 016 26 432 26 855 27 285 27 721

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario IV

24 415 24 723 25 037 25 357 25 684 26 021 26 364 26 717 27 081

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MALIANA – ADMINISTRATIVE POST AND MALIANA WATER SUPPLY STUDY AREA:

(SOURCE: DGE, 2019a)

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

HOLSA SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED LAHOMEA SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

ODOMAU SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED RAIFUN SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED

 Raimaten  Raifun Vila

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER