Lecture 4

Age structured models:

Virtual population analysis, Pope’s cohort
analysis, and fish maturity modelling
 Virtual population analysis (VPA)
• VPA use catch of commercial fisheries to estimate historic fishing mortality and stock
numbers in a cohort of fish
• Uses data of the total fish landings per age group
• The importance of using the VPA is that once history is known it becomes easier to
predict the future catches
• VPA is based on the Exponential Decay Model where the number of survivors in a
cohort is:
Nt+1 = Nt e–(F+M)
• The number of fish dying is:
Nt(1-e–Z)
• Catch (Ct) is the proportion dying due to fishing and can be estimated as Ct = (Ft/Z) Nt
(1 - e–(F+M)) and rearrangement of this equation can allow estimation of the number of
fish, Nt as:

Nt = Ct /[(Ft/Z) (1 - e–(F+M))]
Virtual population analysis (VPA) - contd
• Dividing equation Nt+1 = Nt e–(F+M) by equation Ct=(Ft/Z) Nt (1-e–(F+M))
produces Gulland’s (1965) equation:

Nt+1 /Ct=(Ft+M)e–(Ft+M)/Ft(1-e–[Ft+M])

• The above equation cannot be solved algebraically for F but by using

iterative methods on a computer
• VPA involves working backwards from the most recent year involving the
following steps.
o Inputs required are M, an initial value of F, and the catch (Ct) in numbers for each
year
Virtual population analysis - contd
 Pope’s cohort analysis (PCA)
• Conceptually
identical to VPA,
• Simpler calculation
technique than for
VPA.
• Assumes that all
fish are caught on
one single day
o 1st July when one
half of the year
has elapsed
Pope’s cohort analysis (PCA) - contd
• During first half of year fish suffer only M, so that the number of survivors on first
July becomes:
Nt+0.5 = Nt e–M/2
• Instantaneously after the catch is removed the number of survivors becomes:
Nt+0.5 = Nte–M/2 - Ct.
• The number of survivors then suffers further only M in the second half of the year
so that the number of survivors at the end of the year becomes:
Nt+1 = (Nt e–M/2 - Ct) e–M/2
• Equation Nt+1 = (Nt e–M/2 - Ct) e–M/2 may be rearranged to give:
Nt = (Nt+1eM/2 + Ct) eM/2
• Survival over the year Nt+1/ Nt = e-(M+F) and therefore
Ft = -Ln(Nt+1/ Nt) – M
Comparisons of virtual population analysis
(VPA) and Pope’s cohort analysis
There are 3 steps for both VPA and PCA which involve working
backwards from the most recent year as follows:
• Step 1
o Ct, Ft, and known, M, are substituted in equation Ct = (Ft/Z) Nt (1 - e–(F+M)) to
estimate Nt as follows:
Nt = Ct /[(Ft/Z) (1 - e–(F+M))]
o After step 1 procedures of VPA and PCA differ
 Virtual population analysis (VPA) and Pope’s
cohort analysis - contd
VPA PCA
• Step 2 • Step 2
o Estimation of Ft-1 by o Estimation of Nt using
iteration using equation: equation.
Nt+1 /Ct=(Ft+M)e–(Ft+M)/Ft(1-e–[Ft+M]) Nt = (Nt+1eM/2 + Ct) eM/2
• Step 3 • Step 3 for PCA
o Estimation of Nt-1 using o Estimation of Ft using
equation: equation:
Nt+1 = Nt e–(F+M) Ft = -Ln(Nt+1/ Nt) – M
Modelling fish size at maturity

• One of the measures for managing commercial fish stocks is the use
of minimum size at capture which is based on the size at maturity of
the target fish species.
• The aim of instituting the minimum size limit is to prevent
recruitment overfishing
• This short lecture focuses on how size at maturity for a given fish
population can be estimated
Modelling fish size at maturity - contd
The steps involved in modelling fish size at maturity are as follows:
• Determination of maturity status of individuals in a sample of fish of different size
using either histology or macroscopic staging of gonads or (gonado somatic indices
of fish).
• Computation of the proportion of mature fish by size
• Use of the following logistic regression model to estimate size at maturity
o Pi = 1/[1 + exp(α – β*MLi)]
o Where
Pi =Proportion of mature fish in a length class;
ML = mid of the length bin;
α and β are parameters that determine the shape and location of the sigmoid curve
• This model is similar to the one used for estimating the selectivity of fishing gears
 Modelling fish size at maturity - contd
• The logistic model can be log transformed and rewritten in a linear
form as:
Ln(1/Pi – 1) = α – β*MLi,
Where
α = intercept
β = slope describing the linear relationship.
α and β can be estimated using regression analysis.
• Maturity size is estimated as length corresponding to 50% maturity
using the equation:
ML50% = α/β.
Tutorial 4: Estimation of fish size at maturity
• Saved as a separate file in Microsoft word.