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Factor Momentum Everywhere JPM Quant 19
Factor Momentum Everywhere JPM Quant 19
com
Q UAN TI TATI V E S TR
ATEG
FOURTH
IEF
EDITION
201
AC TO R INVE S T
S:
9
IN G
Factor Momentum
Everywhere
T arun GupTa a n d B ryan K e l l y
Factor Momentum
Everywhere
T G
arun B K upTa a n d rya n elly
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P
T a r u n G u p Ta rice momentum is most com- factor momentum and stock momentum
is a managing director at monly understood as a phenom- are correlated, they are also complementary.
AQR Capital Management enon in which assets that recently Factor momentum earns an economically
LLC in Greenwich, CT.
tarun.gupta@aqr.com
enjoyed high (low) returns relative large and statistically significant alpha after
to others are more likely to experience high controlling for stock momentum. Nor does
Bryan Kelly (low) returns in the future. It is customarily factor momentum displace stock
is a vice president at AQR implemented as a cross-sectional trading momentum. Because of stock
Capital Management LLC strategy among individual stocks ( Jegadeesh momentum’s especially strong hedging
in Greenwich, CT, and benefit with respect to value, we find a
professor of finance at Yale
and Titman 1993; Asness 1994) or long-
School of Management in only equity portfolios (Moskowitz and significant benefit to combining factor
New Haven, CT. Grinblatt 1999; Lewellen 2002). It has an momentum, stock momentum, and value
bryan.kelly@aqr.com impressive and robust track record of risk- in the same portfolio.1
adjusted per- formance (Asness et al. 2014; In recent decades, academic literature
Geczy and Samonov 2016). and industry practice have accumulated
Grouping stocks based on relative dozens of factors that help explain the co-
cross- section performance has led many to movement and average returns among indi-
inter- pret momentum as a strategy that vidual stocks. We build and analyze a large
isolates predominantly idiosyncratic collection of 65 such characteristic-based
momentum (e.g., Grundy and Martin fac- tors that are widely studied in the
2001; Chaves 2016). In this article, we academic literature. From this dataset, we
document robust momentum behavior establish factor momentum as a robust and
among the common factors that are pervasive phenomenon based on the
responsible for a large fraction of the following facts.
covariation among stocks. A portfolio Serial correlation in returns is the
strategy that buys the recent top- basic statistical phenomenon underlying
performing factors and sells poor- momentum and is thus the launching point
performing factors (i.e., that exploits factor for our analysis. First, we show that indi-
momentum) achieves sig- nificant vidual factors exhibit robust time-series
investment performance above and beyond momentum (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen
traditional stock momentum. On a 2012), a performance persistence phenom-
standalone basis, our factor momentum enon by which an asset’s own recent return
1
This is especially true when value is con-
strategy outperforms stock momentum, structed following the HML-Devil refinement of
industry momentum, value, and other com- Asness and Frazzini (2013).
monly studied investment factors in terms
of Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, although
Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue The Journal of Portfolio Management 1
2019
(in an absolute sense rather than relative to a peer one-month horizon, and this short-horizon persistence
group) predicts its future returns. Persistence in factor is unexplained by UMD. We find that there are
returns is strong and ubiquitous. The average monthly benefits to longer formation periods as well, though
AR(1) coefficient across all factors is 0.11; it is positive the perfor- mance of TSFM becomes more similar to
for 59 of our 65 factors and is significantly positive in UMD when the formation window is extended to
49 cases. Second, we demonstrate that individual include the most recent 12 months.
factors can indeed be successfully timed based on their An important differentiating feature of TSFM is
own past performance. A time-series momentum its behavioral stability with respect to look-back
trading strategy that scales exposure to a given factor window. TSFM exhibits positive momentum whether
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in proportion with its own past one-month return it is based on prior one-month, one-year, or even five-
generates excess perfor- mance over and above the year per- formance. This contrasts starkly with
raw factor. This individual time-series momentum stock-based momentum strategies. For both short
alpha (i.e., after controlling for a passive investment in (one month) and long (beyond two years) formation
the factor) is positive for 61 of the 65 factors and is windows, stocks in fact exhibit reversals as opposed to
statistically significant for 47 of them. momentum (De Bondt and Thaler 1985; Jegadeesh
The annualized information ratio of this strategy is 1990).
0.33 on average over all 65 factors. TSFM is an average of time-series momentum
Third, a combined strategy that averages one- strategies on individual factors. A natural alternative
month time-series momentum of all factors earns an strategy is to construct factor momentum relative to
annual Sharpe ratio of 0.84, exceeding the the performance of the other factors in the cross
performance of any individual factor’s time-series section, as in the Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)
momentum. We refer to this combined portfolio of approach. We refer to this as cross-section factor momentum
individual factor timing strategies as time-series factor (CSFM). We find that CSFM and TSFM share a
momentum (TSFM). It performs similarly well with correlation above 0.90 for any formation window, and
longer formation windows. For example, the the standalone average returns and Sharpe ratios of
strategy’s Sharpe ratio is CSFM and TSFM are very similar. However, when we
0.70 when based on previous 12-month factor regress TSFM returns on CSFM, we find positive and
perfor- mance and remains at 0.72 with a five-year highly significant TSFM alphas, yet CSFM has
look-back window. TSFM is strongest with a one- generally negative (and signifi- cant) alphas when
month look back, although we continue to find controlling for TSFM. Their high correlation and
positive and signifi- cant performance with longer opposing alphas reveal that TSFM and CSFM are
nonoverlapping windows as well (i.e., based on fundamentally the same phenomenon but that the
momentum over 2-12 or 13-60 months prior to time-series approach provides a purer measure of
formation). expected factor returns than does the cross-sectional
The TSFM strategy is largely unexplained by method.
other well-known sources of excess returns. It has two We also investigate the turnover and transaction
natural benchmarks for comparison. One is the equal- costs of factor momentum. Our conclusions regarding
weighted average of the 65 raw factors, which itself has its outperformance are unchanged when we look at
an impressive annual Sharpe ratio of 1.07. TSFM earns Sharpe ratios net of transaction costs. The net
large and significant alphas relative to this, indicating standalone Sharpe ratios of TSFM and CSFM
that the performance of TSFM arises from beneficial continue to exceed those of stock momentum,
timing and is not simply picking up static factor per- industry momentum, short-term reversal, and the
formance. The second natural benchmark is the tradi- Fama–French factors.
tional stock-level momentum strategy using the 2-12 Our last empirical finding is that factor
formation strategy of Asness (1994), which we refer to momentum is a global phenomenon. We demonstrate
as UMD (up minus down) henceforth. UMD has an its robustness in international equity markets with
annual Sharpe ratio of 0.56 in our sample. In spanning magnitudes on par with our US findings. We find
regressions, UMD partially explains the performance similar outperformance of TSFM over international
of TSFM, particularly when TSFM is based on a versions of UMD, industry momentum, and CSFM.
matched 2-12 formation period (i.e., excluding the Each of our 65 factors represents a large, diversi-
2
mostFactor
recentMomentum
month).Everywhere
Factor momentum, however, is Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue 2019
fied long–short portfolio. These portfolios are (to close
strongest at the
approximation) devoid of idiosyncratic stock-level factor analysis.2 We focus on factors that can be con-
returns, which are washed out by the law of large structed beginning in the 1960s. This excludes, for
numbers. Yet the TSFM strategy that buys (sells) example, Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System–based
factors with high (low) past returns outperforms the analyst research factors, which only become available
traditional stock momentum strategy. In other words, in the late 1980s.
factor momentum captures variation in expected factor We form factors as fol lows. First, we
returns of roughly similar magnitude to that in stock- cross-sectionally winsorize the top and bottom 1% of
level momentum, despite being purged of idiosyncratic raw characteristic values each period. Next, we split
returns by construction. Factor momentum thus iso- the universe into large and small stocks with a cutoff
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lates persistence in the common factors and shows that equal to median NYSE market capitalization (or the
momentum is a more general phenomenon, existing 80th per- centile of market capitalization for
alongside idiosyncratic stock return momentum. international stocks). Within size bins, we divide
We build upon recent work by Avramov et al. further into low/medium/ high characteristic values
(2016) and Arnott et al. (2018) in analyzing according to a 30/40/30 per- centile split. Breakpoints
momentum among factors. Their work focuses only are taken over NYSE stocks for the US sample or all
on cross-section factor momentum and only in the stocks in the international sample. Within these six
United States. Our findings differ from previous work bins, we form value-weighted portfo- lios and then
in establishing that factor momentum is best combine these into an ultimate long–short factor
understood and implemented with a time-series portfolio according to 0.5 (Large High Small
strategy rather than a relative cross- sectional High) 0.5 (Large Low Small Low), reconstituting
approach. Our finding that TSFM explains the portfolios each month.
performance of stock momentum is likewise a new Our factor list includes, among others, a variety
contribution to the literature. We also provide a more of valuation ratios (e.g., earnings/price, book/market);
expansive view of factor momentum, studying a more factor exposures (e.g., betting against beta); size, invest-
comprehensive collection of US equity factors, and we ment, and profitability metrics (e.g., market equity,
are the first to document factor momentum in interna- sales growth, return on equity); idiosyncratic risk
tional equity markets. measures (e.g., stock volatility and skewness); and
The behavior of factor momentum is distinctly liquidity mea- sures (e.g., Amihud illiquidity, share
reminiscent of work by Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen volume, and bid– ask spread).
(2012), who demonstrated that asset class indexes may FACTORS AT A GLANCE
be timed based on their recent past performance.
Aggre- gate commodity, bond, and currency indexes Exhibit 1 lists the variables and basic performance
are rightly viewed as factors within those asset classes, characteristics. We report each factor’s average return,
and as such the results of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Sharpe ratio, and Fama and French (2016) five-factor
Pedersen (2012) can be understood as a manifestation alpha (returns and alphas are in percent per annum).
of factor momentum. Taken together with the The Appendix provides additional details, including a
ubiquity of our equity-based findings of factor factor description and the original articles that
momentum in the time series, in the cross section, and analyzed each factor (we follow these articles as closely
around the world, we conclude that there is indeed as possible when constructing our factor dataset). We
factor momentum
FACTOR SAMPLE everywhere. orient the long–short legs of each factor such that the
predicted sign of the factor’s expected return is
We construct 65 characteristic-based factor positive (according to the paper originally proposing
portfo- lios. Our aim is to cover the expanse of factors each factor). Note that this does not mean that all
proposed in the academic literature that studies the factors have positive average returns in our sample—
cross section of stock returns, subject to constraints. we find that 3 of 65 have nega- tive average returns
We cover the most well-cited and robust factors and when extended through 2017, and
have a substan- tial overlap with recent research on 2
See Harvey, Liu, and Zhu (2016); McLean and Pontiff
high-dimensional (2016); Gu, Kelly, and Xiu (2018); and Kelly, Pruitt, and Su (2018).
ROA
DP
OL
VOLMTRN
SEASONAL
TURNOVER
IVOL
MAXRET
PM
ATOCH
LV
NWCCHG
SHORTIN
LNOACHG
STR
IVG
EN
TMULT
GRPROF
FREECF
NCOACHG
ADVERTCHG
RER
INDMO
ZSCORE
BAB
CP
XRD2AT
AIM
BM
EP
XFIN
SP
NOA
DCAP
DELAY
FSCORE
AD2MV
REVSURP
XRD2S
GS5
ASSETG
ISKEW
ACC
PPACHG
ABNINV
G SUSGR
OSCORE
XRD2MV
QMJ
CASH
SMB
CEGTH
ECONS
LTR
CAPTO
W52H
T
EPSMOM
ISSUE1
ATO
G ROE
ISSUE5
ENTBM
ISSUE5 3.5* 0.46* 2.2*
PMCHG
LVGBM
MOM12
M
ENTBM 3.6* 0.39* –1.0
ENTMULT 4.6* 0.61* 1.4*
EP 5.1* 0.51* 1.3
EPSMOM 0.5 0.08 1.7* Panel B: Sharpe Ratio
FREECF 4.6* 0.63* 3.2* 1.2
NOA
SP
ROA
REVSURP
EP
CP
AD2MV
T MOM12
SEAS
TURNOVER
PPACHG
ENTMUL
XFIN
LNOACHG
PM
DP
XRD2AT
XRD2MV
GRPROF
PMCHG
ATOCH
ONAL
RER
MAXRET
STR
OSCORE
SHO
RTINT
EPSMOM
VO
NCOACHG
ADVERTCHG
GS5
LVG
LMTRN
ISSUE1
ISSUE5
W52H
BAB
ZSCORE
BM
OL
NWCCHG
INDMOM
DCAP
DELAY
IVOL
XRD2S
FREECF
ISKEW
QMJ
ABNINV
LVGBM
ACC
ECONS
LTR
SMB
FSCORE
SUSGR
CAPTO
CEGTH
ATO
IVG
AIM
CASH
ROE
ENTBM
ASSETG
OSCORE 2.4* 0.36* 1.8*
PM –1.6 –0.26 –0.1
PMCHG 0.8 0.16 1.2*
PPACHG 3.3* 0.53* 0.5
Panel C: FF5 Alpha
QMJ 4.2* 0.52* 4.4* 15
RER 1.4* 0.30* 0.9
STR 3.5* 0.34* 2.3
REVSURP 0.2 0.03 1.5*
10
ROA 2.7* 0.41* 1.8*
ROE 1.6 0.23 0.7
SEASONAL 2.4* 0.29* 2.8*
SHORTINT 2.8* 0.48* 3.7* 5
NCOACH
SEASONA
NOA
E
ENTMUL
REVSUR
ATOCHG
AC
SHORTIN
ISKE
ISSUE
LNOACH
G
IV
MAXRE
PPACH
T
1 PM
G ISSUE5
R LVG
V
AD
FSCOR
INDMO
LT
CEGTH
ASSET
PMCHG
AD2M
QM
XRD2M
MOM12
VERTC
HG
ENTB
VOLMTR
TURNOVE
XRD2AT
DCAP
ROA
L
NWCCHG
R
SMB
P IVOL
GRPROF
ABNINV
FREECF
G STR
XFIN
C
W
OSCORE
P ATO
T W52H
XRD2S
G
J
P BM
ZSCORE
G AIM
LVGBM
V BAB
R
CASH
E RER
DP
GS
ECONS
EPSMOM
ROE
M
M
DELA
Note: and signify that a weight estimate is significantly different from zero at the 5% or 1% level,
respectively.
4 Factor Momentum Everywhere Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue 2019
25 are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Mean- Time-Series Factor Momentum
while, the factors with the strongest and most
statistically reliable performance are the best-known The strong autoregressive structure in factor
usual suspects, such as betting against beta, stock returns suggests that it may be possible to time each
momentum, industry momentum, and valuation ratios factor individually based on its own recent
(cash f low/price, sales/ price, and earnings/price). performance. The idea of portfolio timing based on
Although all factors represent large and diversi- the portfolio’s own past return underlies the time-
fied portfolios, they nonetheless possess rather distinct series momentum methodology of Moskowitz, Ooi,
return behavior. More than half of all factor pairs have and Pedersen (2012). We begin by exploring the
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a correlation below 0.25 in absolute value. Principal benefits of portfolio timing by applying a time-series
component (PC) analysis also supports the view that an momentum strategy one factor at a time. We focus on
unusually large amount of the portfolio return one-month holding periods and consider various
variation is factor specific: It takes 19 PCs to explain formation windows of one month up to five years.
90% of the 65-factor correlation structure, 28 to Our strategy dynamically scales one-month returns of
explain 95%, and 46 to explain 99%. the ith factor, fi,t+1, according to
its performance over the past j months
, j ,t 1 s i , j ,t f i ,t ,
f iTSFM
FACTOR MOMENTUM 1
1 j
Factor Persistence si , min max
fi ,t 1 ,2 ,2 (1
j ,t
i , j ,t 1 )
We begin our analysis by investigating the pri-
mary statistical phenomenon underlying momentum: Unpacking Equation 1, we use the scaling term
serial correlation in returns. In Exhibit 2, we report si,j,t to time positions in factor i based on the factor’s
monthly first-order autoregressive coefficients return over the formation period (t j to t). If
(denoted as AR(1)) for each factor portfolio along with formation returns are positive, it buys the factor; if
95% con- fidence intervals. When zero lies outside the negative, it sells the factor. We convert recent returns
confidence interval, it indicates that the estimate is to z-scores by dividing by i,j,t, which is the annualized
statistically sig- nificant at the 5% level (or, factor volatility, over the previous three years (for
equivalently, the t-statistic is greater than 1.96 in short formation windows, j 12) or over the previous
absolute value). 10 years (if j 12), and we cap z-scores at 2.4
The strength and pervasiveness of one-month The benefits of factor timing can be assessed in
own-factor serial correlation is stunning. Of our 65 terms of alpha by regressing the scaled factor on the
fac- tors, 59 have a positive monthly AR(1) raw factor
coefficient, and the coefficient is statistically
significant for 49 of these. For comparison, the fi TSFM
, j ,t
fi , j ie,t
i,j i,
j ,t
monthly AR(1) coefficient for the excess market
return is 0.07 during our sample, which Moskowitz,
Exhibit 3, Panel A, reports the annualized per-
Ooi, and Pedersen (2012) demonstrated is powerful
centage alphas from the time-series strategy with a
enough for implementing a time-series momentum
one- month formation period for each factor, as well
strategy. The average AR(1) coefficient of our factors
as 95% confidence intervals. The performance of
is 0.11, and 50 of them have an AR(1) coef-
time-series momentum in individual factors is
ficient larger than that of the market.3 This is a first
extraordinarily per- vasive. It is positive for 61 out of
indication that it may be possible to time factors
65 factors and statistically significant for 47 of these. To
based
provide a clearer inter- pretation in terms of risk–
on their own past performance.
We believe that own-factor persistence may be even return trade-off, Exhibit 3,
stronger than these results portray because any illiquidity Our findings are robust to other estimation choices for i,j,t,
4
imbalance in a factor will tend to create some negative serial including shorter windows and exponentially weighted moving
correlation, and we are not directly accounting for that here. averages, and to other caps such as 1.
0.25
0.2
It is illegal to make unauthorized copies of this article, forward to an unauthorized user, or to post electronically without Publisher permission.
0.15
0.1
0.05
–0.05
–0.1
GRPRO
PPACH
G
C
E
ENTBM
ZSCOR
ENTMUL
T
AI
AC
EP
ATOCHG
SM
BA
PT
REVSUR
CA
O
NCOACH
LT
AS
SHORTIN
SE
XFI
ADVERTCH
CAS
ON
AL
NWCCH
INDMOM
RE
ABNIN
LNOACH
VOLMTR
NO
N
TURNOVE
G
V
F
P IVG
ISSUE1
DCAP
MAXRET
IVOL
AD2MV
DELAY
XRD2AT
P QMJ
XRD2S
ATO
ISSUE5
MOM12
C
M
T
BM
OSCORE
B
CEGTH
W52H
XRD2MV
PMCHG
N
ISKEW
SUSGR
G
R STR
GS
H
G
ASSETG
ECON
D
FREEC
RO
O
LV
FSCOR
RO
LVGB
P
EPSMO
E
5
G
M
S
M
L
F
E
P
M
A
Panel B, shows Sharpe ratios for each individual factor TSFM earns an annualized average return of
momentum strategy: It exceeds 0.20 for 56 factors and 12.0%. The last bar in Panel A reports the alpha from
is statistically significant for 48 of them. regressing the one-month TSFM return on the
Our overall TSFM strategy combines all equal-weighted average of raw factor returns. The
individual factor time-series momentum strategies equal-weighted portfolio of raw factors is itself an
into a single portfolio. In particular, TSFM aggregates impressive strategy, earning an annualized Sharpe ratio
timed factors (with formation window j) according to of 1.07. Nevertheless, the portfolio of individual factor
momentum strategies generates a highly significant
TSFM j ,t TSFMLong TSFM
j ,t
Short
10.3% alpha (t-statistic of 4.6) after controlling for the
j ,t
average of untimed factors. The last bar in Panel B
where reports the annual Sharpe ratio of the combined factor
momentum portfolio. It is 0.84, exceeding the Sharpe
TSFM ratio of every individual factor momentum strategy.
j ,t
TSFMLong 1{s 0} i ,fj ,t 1
i i , j ,t
and Exhibit 4 explores how TSFM performance
1{s 0} i , j ,t
i i , j ,t changes with alternative implementations. We form
the momentum signal using look-back windows of one
s 1{s 0} i ,fj ,t 1
TSFM
i
month (1-1) up to five years (1-60). We also split out
i , j ,t
j ,t
TSFMShort
1{s 0} i , j ,t
i i , j ,t the 11 months excluding the most recent month (2-12)
s short legs are rescaled to for more direct comparability with UMD and the four
That is, the long and years excluding the most recent year (13-60) to
form a unit leverage ($1 long and $1 short) TSFM compare the role of long-term versus short-term
portfolio. return trends.
–0.4
–0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
16
–4
–2
10
12
14
0
8
AIM AIM
RER RER
ADVERTCHG ADVERTCHG
ABNINV ABNINV
DELAY DELAY
ISKEW ISKEW
SHORTINT SHORTINT
STR CASH
XRD2MV CEGTH
DCAP FSCORE
VOLMTRN LNOACHG
CEGTH NOA
INDMOM ROA
FSCORE VOLMTRN
ROA INDMOM
CASH ATOCHG
W52H PMCHG
XRD2S NCOACHG
TURNOVER ACC
SEASONAL REVSURP
REVSURP NWCCHG
LNOACHG ISSUE5
XRD2AT XRD2MV
NOA IVG
LTR DCAP
ATOCHG SEASONAL
PMCHG PPACHG
ISSUE5 ECONS
OSCORE OSCORE
LVGBM SUSGR
MOM12 STR
ACC PM
ISSUE1 ENTMULT
GRPROF GS5
PPACHG EPSMOM
significant
the overall performance driver, large positive and
shows that although one-month factor momentum is
7.1% per annum with a Sharpe ratio of 0.72. Panel A
With a look-back as long as five years, TSFM earns
PM XFIN
AD2MV CP
CP GRPROF
EP ASSETG
ECONS ISSUE1
NCOACHG XRD2S
SMB CAPTO
SUSGR FREECF
DP TURNOVER
GS5 EP
ENTMULT W52H
IVOL ATO
LVG XRD2AT
NWCCHG LVGBM
FREECF OL
The Journal of Portfolio Management
MAXRET QMJ
QMJ SMB
ATO LTR
XFIN AD2MV
ASSETG MOM12
CAPTO ROE
IVG BM
EPSMOM LVG
BM ENTBM
ROE SP
SP ZSCORE
ENTBM DP
ZSCORE MAXRET
OL BAB
BAB IVOL
TSFM TSFM
7
e x h iBi T 4
Risk-Adjusted TSFM Performance
Panel A: Raw E[R] Panel B: Sharpe Ratio
16 1.2
14
1
12
0.8
10
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8 0.6
6
0.4
4
0.2
2
0 0
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13-60 1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13-60
Months in Formation Period Months in Formation Period
contributions from longer (nonoverlapping) 2-12 and section of all factors. CSFM buys (sells) factors that
13-60 formation windows remain as well, with Sharpe have recently outperformed (underperformed) peers,
ratios of 0.54 and 0.53, respectively. rather than sizing factor exposures based on their own
When we benchmark TSFM against the equal- recent performance. For example, if all factors recently
weighted average factor (EW, shown in Panel C) or appre- ciated, TSFM will take long positions in all of
against the Fama–French f ive-factor model (FF5, them. CSFM, on the other hand, will be long only the
Panel D), the excess performance of TSFM is little relative outperformers and will short those with
affected. For a one-month formation, EW explains less below-median recent returns (despite their recent
than one-sixth of the TSFM average return, and at positivity).5
one year it explains less than one-third. The Fama– Exhibit 5 explores the performance of CSFM
French model explains less than one-tenth of TSFM’s with various look-back windows for portfolio
average return for all formation windows. formation (in analogy with Exhibit 4). The results
show that CSFM and TSFM have similar behavior.
Cross-Section Factor Momentum The Sharpe ratios of CSFM are slightly inferior to
TSFM, and it has slightly smaller alphas with respect
An alternative approach to forming a factor to the CSFM
equal-weighted
cross-sectionally de-means factors’ formation-
momentum strategy is to take positions in factors based window returns but otherwise follows the same construction as
on the recent performance of factors relative to the TSFM.
cross
8 Factor Momentum Everywhere Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue 2019
e x h iBi T 5
Risk-Adjusted CSFM Performance
Panel A: Raw E[R] Panel B: Sharpe Ratio
1.2
15 1
0.8
10
0.6
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0.4
5
0.2
0 0
–0.2
1-1 1-31-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13- 1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13-60
60 Months in Formation Period
Months in Formation Period
Panel D: on FF5
Panel C: on EW Factor
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13-60 1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12 13-60
Months in Formation Period Months in Formation Period
portfolio of raw factors, but their performance patterns returns for each momentum variable, including 1-
are otherwise closely aligned. month and 12-month look-back windows for TSFM
and CSFM, along with the excess market portfolio.
Factor, Stock, and Industry Momentum Two features of this plot stand out. First is the
comparatively steep slope of TSFM. This is consistent
Next, we directly compare various incarnations throughout the sample rather than being driven by a
of the momentum effect against each other, including few good runs. (One-month CSFM shares a similarly
factor momentum (TSFM and CSFM), stock-level steep slope, but the 12-month implementation drops
momentum (UMD), short-term stock reversal (STR), off substantially). Second is the sharp drawdown of
and industry momentum (INDMOM, following UMD, when stock momentum experienced a loss of
Moskowitz and Grinblatt 1999 and Asness, Porter, 31% from March to May 2009 (Daniel and Moskowitz
and Stevens 2000, for which we use a 1-12 formation 2016). INDMOM also experienced a drawdown of
strategy). To make a clearer comparison among 24% over this time. In con- trast, factor momentum
average returns, we rescale all five series to have an ex entirely avoided the momentum crash. Over the same
post annualized volatility of 10%. months, 12-month TSFM and CSFM earned 16% and
Exhibit 6 provides a preliminary visual 15%, respectively (one-month versions of TSFM and
comparison of momentum strategies. It shows the CSFM both earned 18%).
cumulative log
UMD
300 INDMOM
Rm-Rf
250
200
150
100
50
–50
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1991 1996 2001 2006 2012 2017
ex h iBi T 7
Momentum Strategy Return Correlations
CSFM TSFM
Formation
Window UMD STR INDMOM UMD STR INDMOM CSFM & TSFM
1-1 0.10 –0.80 0.22 0.09 –0.80 0.21 0.99
1-3 0.40 –0.59 0.45 0.42 –0.60 0.47 0.99
1-6 0.57 –0.46 0.58 0.57 –0.46 0.59 0.98
1-12 0.76 –0.32 0.79 0.75 –0.35 0.77 0.98
1-36 0.64 –0.27 0.61 0.67 –0.32 0.62 0.95
1-60 0.65 –0.31 0.61 0.67 –0.35 0.60 0.91
2-12 0.77 –0.19 0.78 0.77 –0.22 0.77 0.98
13-60 0.20 –0.06 0.12 0.20 –0.12 0.05 0.85
It is well known that stock momentum is con- momentum from a 2-12 strategy, as well as STR,
centrated in intermediate formation windows of 6 to which captures short-term stock reversals that arise in
12 months. With very short look-backs (one month) a 1-1 strategy. We compare each of these to TSFM and
or at long horizons, stocks experience reversals rather CSFM with a range of formation choices ranging from
than momentum. To gain a basic understanding of 1 month to 60 months and again splitting out 2-12
co-movement in strategies, particularly with respect to and 13-60.
different formation periods, Exhibit 7 reports Exhibit 7 highlights an interesting distinction in
momentum correlations. We include UMD, which the time series dynamics of different momentum
describes stock strategies. When factor momentum is based on an
intermediate
10 Factor Momentum Everywhere Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue 2019
window of 1–12 months, it bears a close correlation more of CSFM’s performance than they do TSFM’s
with UMD (0.76 and 0.75 for TSFM and CSFM, per- formance, and CSFM’s alphas on UMD and
respectively, and similar for 2-12 factor momentum). INDMOM are insignificant for formation windows
Exhibit 7 also illustrates a close similarity between of a year or more. Second, CSFM has negative and
factor momentum and industry momentum. significant alpha relative to TSFM. In other words,
In contrast, with a one-month window, factor although TSFM and CSFM earn similarly high
momentum behavior is strongly opposite to the stock- average returns and are highly correlated, TSFM
based STR strategy (correlation of 0.80 for both harvests factor momentum compensa- tion more
TSFM and CSFM). If factor momentum were simply efficiently than CSFM does.
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12
10
It is illegal to make unauthorized copies of this article, forward to an unauthorized user, or to post electronically without Publisher permission.
8
Annual %
–2
–4
–6
E[R] vs. vs. INDMOM vs. STR vs. CSFM
UMD
Panel B: CSFM Relative Performance
14
12
10
6
Annual %
–2
–4
–6
E[R] vs. UMD vs. INDMOM vs. STR vs.
TSFM
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12
13-60
5
Annual %
4
3
2
1
0
–1
vs. TSFM vs. CSFM
Panel B: INDMOM
8
4
Annual %
–2
–4
vs. TSFM vs. CSFM
Panel C: STR
12
10
8
Annual %
0
vs. TSFM vs.
CSFM
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12
13-60
Note: and signify that a weight estimate is significantly different from zero at the 5% or 1% level,
respectively.
1-1, 2-12, and 13-60 versions of TSFM and CSFM, Column 4 considers the optimal combination of
as well as the 1-12 versions of each. We also include TSFM with UMD and the Fama–French factors. In
UMD, INDMOM, and STR. Finally we investigate this case, 2-12 TSFM takes an exact zero weight and
combinations with the Fama–French five-factor is replaced by a significantly positive weight of 0.10 on
model. Superscripts of single and double asterisks UMD. This combination earns a Sharpe ratio of 1.65
signify that a weight estimate is significantly different (the five Fama–French factors on their own achieve a
from zero at the 5% or 1% level, respectively. tangency Sharpe ratio of 1.09). The same conclusion
The second column reports the standalone emerges if we simultaneously include UMD and STR
Sharpe ratios for each factor. The remaining columns, alongside TSFM (Column 6), where all three enter the
labeled 1 to 7, report tangency portfolio weights tangency portfolio with significantly positive weights.
among various sets of factors. Column 1 shows that Among the Fama–French factors, MKT, conserva-
the ex post efficient combination of 1-1, 2-12, and 13- tive minus aggressive (CMA), and robust minus weak
60 TSFM puts the heaviest weight (0.47) on 1-1 (RMW) are significant contributors to tangency
TSFM but also puts sig- nificantly positive weight on across the board.
2-12 and 13-60 (0.22 and 0.31, respectively). This The diversification benefits from combining
tangency combination achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.07. momentum factors with value factors become more
For CSFM, the tangency portfolio is dominated by a pronounced when using the HML-Devil refinement
weight of 0.67 on the 1-1 component. Column 3 of Asness and Frazzini (2013), which incorporates more
shows that the optimal combination of TSFM and timely price data in its value signal construction and
CSFM takes a highly levered position in TSFM with significantly outperforms the traditional Fama–French
a large negative offsetting position in CSFM. This HML. Exhibit 11 shows that the correlation of UMD
result restates the fact that TSFM and CSFM are highly and HML-Devil is 0.64, whereas UMD is only
correlated but have alphas of opposite signs with 0.18 correlated with Fama–French HML.
respect to one another. Likewise, the
TSFM CSFM
UMD INDMOM 1-1 2-12 13-60 1-12 1-1 2-12 13-60 1-12
UMD – 0.84 0.09 0.77 0.20 0.75 0.10 0.77 0.20 0.76
INDMOM – – 0.21 0.77 0.05 0.77 0.22 0.78 0.12 0.79
HML –0.18 –0.18 0.09 –0.04 –0.01 –0.02 0.09 –0.07 –0.26 –0.05
HML-Devil –0.64 –0.53 0.00 –0.39 –0.2 –0.37 –0.01 –0.41 –0.36 –0.40
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correlation of 1-12 TSFM drops from 0.02 with momentum with that of other price trend factors.7 In
HML to 0.37 with HML-Devil. terms of formation window, STR is the natural stock-
Motivated by the potential for stronger hedging level benchmark for one-month factor momentum,
benefits, Exhibit 12 investigates the impact of and UMD and INDMOM are most natural for
replacing HML with HML-Devil in our tangency comparison with 12-month factor momentum. In
portfolio anal- ysis. Three observations emerge from both cases we see that factor momentum turnover is
this table. First, our central conclusions regarding comparable to, but slightly lower than, its stock-level
factor momentum are unchanged—it remains a strong counterpart. Panel A also shows that, like other
contributor to optimal multifactor portfolios. momentum varieties, factor momentum involves
Second, HML-Devil takes a large and statistically substantially more trading than Fama–French factors.
significant portfolio weight in all cases, in contrast Panel B of Exhibit 13 compares the performance
with the general insignificance of Fama–French of strategies net of transaction costs. Our calculations
HML in Exhibit 10. Third, UMD becomes one of assume costs of 10 bps per unit of turnover (based on
the most important components of the tangency the estimates of Frazzini, Israel, and Moskowitz 2015).
portfolio thanks to the added diversifica- Red bars represent the net annualized Sharpe ratio for
tion benefits of coupling UMD and HML- each strategy, along with the gross Sharpe ratio in blue
Devil.6 In summary, factor momentum and stock for comparison. The main takeaway from the exhibit is
momentum are that although trading costs indeed eat into the perfor-
most effectively used in tandem when devising mance of factor momentum, its net performance con-
optimal
IMPLEMENTABILITY tinues to exceed that of UMD, INDMOM, STR, and
portfolios. the Fama–French factors. For example, the net Sharpe
Momentum strategies are high turnover by ratio of TSFM 1-12 is 0.63, versus 0.70 gross. The next
nature; thus, trading costs are a first-order consider- best net Sharpe ratio among stock-level price trend fac-
ation for understanding the practical usefulness of tors is 0.51 for UMD, and the best among Fama–
factor momentum in portfolio decisions. Panel A of French factors is 0.45 for RMW.
Exhibit 13 compares the average annualized turnover Lastly, Panel B sheds new light on the findings in
of factor Exhibit 9: It reveals that the strong performance of
STR after controlling for factor momentum is
illusory. Even on a standalone basis, the performance
6
Exhibit 12 highlights the benefits of combining value and of short-term reversal is entirely wiped out by
momentum strategies (a point previously emphasized by Asness,
transaction costs.
Moskowitz, and Pedersen 2013). Our factor momentum findings
naturally call for an investigation into an analogous factor value
strategy that times factors based on factor-level value signals (as
Average annualized turnover is defined as the sum of abso-
discussed, for example, by Asness 2016a, 2016b and Asness et al. lute changes in portfolio weights each month, averaged over all
2000). Although an exploration of factor value, and in particular months and multiplied by 12. This describes total two-sided
the benefits of combining it with factor momentum, is beyond the trading volume (both entering and exiting positions) as a fraction
scope of this article, it is a fascinating direction for future of gross asset value.
research.
Note: and signify that a weight estimate is significantly different from zero at the 5% or 1% level,
respectively.
FACTOR MOMENTUM AROUND THE WORLD portfolio that aggregates individual time-series factor
momentum strategies has a Sharpe ratio of 0.73
In this section, we show that each of our main (versus
factor momentum conclusions from the US sample is 0.84 in the United States) and earns an alpha of 6.6%
strongly corroborated in international equity markets. per year after controlling for the equal-weighted port-
We study three international samples. The Europe folio of raw (untimed) factors.
sample includes Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Second, international factor momentum demon-
Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, the strates extraordinarily stable performance regardless
United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, of formation window (shown in the left-most bars of
Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and Israel. The Pacific Exhibit 15). TSFM and CSFM earn essentially the
sample includes Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New same average return whether they use a short look-
Zealand, and Singapore. The broadest international back of one month, all the way through a long look-
sample we consider is global (without the United back of five years. As in the US sample, this is a
States) and combines Europe, Pacific, and Canada. remarkable diver- gence from stock-level continuation
Because of data limitations, we study only 62 of the patterns, where a one-month window gives rise to
original 65 factors in the international sample.8 reversal but a one-year window captures momentum.
First, individual factor returns are highly per- Third, international factor momentum demon-
sistent. The average AR(1) coefficient is 0.10 strates large and significant excess performance after
(versus con- trolling for other varieties of international
0.11 in the United States), is positive for 51 of 62 momentum, including UMD, INDMOM, and STR
fac- tors, and is significant for 30 of these. Exhibit (Exhibit 15). The TSFM alpha versus UMD is
14 shows that the success of individual factor time- significantly positive for all formation windows except
series momentum strategies (one-month formation) 13-60.
work as well for international factors as they do for Fourth, TSFM and CSFM are more than 0.95
the United States. The alpha of momentum-timed cor- related for all formation windows. Yet TSFM
factors versus raw factors is positive for 55 of 61 tends to possess positive alpha relative to CSFM, and
factors and is sig- nificant for 22 of these (versus 61 CSFM earns negative alpha versus TSFM; this finding
of 65 positive in the United States, 47 of those indicates that, as in the US sample, TSFM more
significant).
The
Excluded TSFM
are ADVERTCHG, AD2MV, and AIM. efficiently captures the benefits of factor momentum.
35
Average Annual Turnover
30
25
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20
15
10
A
L
1
1
CS 12
12
B
M
W
1-
1-
CM
ST
SM
M
K
1-
1-
RM
H
M
FM
FM
M
FM
FM
D
TS
IN
TS
CS
1
12
12
B
M
W
1-
1-
CM
ST
SM
M
K
1-
1-
RM
H
M
FM
FM
M
FM
FM
D
TS
CS
IN
TS
CS
Gross
Net
Fifth, the performance of UMD and INDMOM from Exhibit 17 are qualitatively similar to the US
is explained by factor momentum. Exhibit 16 shows that analysis in Exhibit 10. US and international TSFM 1-1
UMD’s alpha is essentially zero, and INDMOM has a share a correlation of 0.62, and the US and
negative alpha after controlling for either TSFM or international 1-12 versions are 0.64 correlated. The ex
CSFM. Sixth, international tangency portfolio post tangency portfolio that combines US and
analysis in Exhibit 17 highlights the additivity of factor international TSFM 1-1 earns an annual Sharpe ratio
momentum to the broader set of investment factors.9 of 0.83; individually, they each earn 0.73.
The conclusions In further (unreported) robustness analyses, we
All momentum variables are based on international equi-
9 find that the majority of the performance of the factor
ties. However, because our data begin earlier than Ken French’s momentum strategy arises from dynamically adjusting
international five-factor data, we use the US Fama–French factors.
18
Time Series Momentum for Individual Factors (global ex. US, one-month formation window)
e x h iBi T 14
Factor Momentum Everywhere
–0.4
–0.2
–10
1.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
15
–5
10
0
5
CFVOL CFVOL
RER RER
CASH SEASONAL
VOLM IVG
TRN ACC
XRD2S NWCCHG
STR CASH
ATOCHG STR
NWCCHG XRD2S
ACC VOLMTRN
IVG REVSURP
DELAY CAPTO
ATO GRPROF
REVSURP DELAY
GRPROF ATOCHG
TUR CEGTH
NOVER PPACHG
PMCHG PMCHG
CEGTH NOA
DCAP DCAP
XRD2AT ATO
SMB OL
LNOACHG
LNOACHG EPSMOM
CAPTO NCOACHG
GS5 GS5
OL ROE
ROE ISKEW
PPACHG TU
XFIN RNOV
NOA ER
XRD2MV SMB
ABNINV SUSGR
OSCORE ABNINV
PM OSCORE
PM
SEASONAL ASSETG
SUSGR XFIN
EPSMOM XRD2AT
NCOACHG ECONS
EP LVGBM
ASSETG XRD2MV
LVGBM ROA
ROA
INDMOM FREECF
ENTMULT CP
MAXRET EP
ISKEW ENTMULT
ECONS BM
W52H ISSUE5
IVOL ZSCORE
LTR LVG
ZSCORE FSCORE
2019
Qu a n t i t a t i v e Special Issue
DP DP
LVG ISSUE1
BM
FREECF ENTBM
FS SP
CORE BAB
SP LTR
W52H
ENTBM IVOL
BAB QMJ
CP INDMOM
MOM12 MAXRET
ISSUE5 MOM12
QMJ TSFM
ISSUE1
TSFM
e x h iBi T 15
Comparison of Momentum Strategies (global ex. US)
Panel A: TSFM Relative Performance
14
12
10
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6
Annual %
–2
–4
–6
vs. INDMOM vs. STR vs. CSFM
E[R] vs.
UMD
Panel B: CSFM Relative Performance
14
12
10
6
Annual %
–2
–4
–6
E[R] vs. UMD vs. INDMOM vs. vs. TSFM
STR
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12
13-60
6
It is illegal to make unauthorized copies of this article, forward to an unauthorized user, or to post electronically without Publisher permission.
4
Annual
2
%
–2
–4
vs. TSFM vs. CSFM
Panel B: INDMOM
8
2
Annual
0
%
–2
–4
–6
vs. TSFM vs. CSFM
Panel C: STR
8
4
Annual
2
%
–2
–4
vs. TSFM vs.
CSFM
1-1 1-3 1-6 1-12 1-36 1-60 2-12
13-60
Note: and signify that a weight estimate is significantly different from zero at the 5% or 1% level,
respectively.
factor weights over time, rather than from taking static complementary with stock momentum, as both enter
long (short) bets on factors that have higher (lower) optimized multifactor portfolios with significant
average returns unconditionally. We also find that the positive weights (particularly when combined with
performance of factor momentum is not dependent on HML-Devil).
using dozens of fine-grained factors. Instead, with a set An interesting aspect of factor momentum is its
of only six broad theme factors,10 we reproduce the stability with respect to the definition of recent per-
same basic factor momentum phenomenon found in formance. Whether the look-back window is as short
the 65 factor dataset. as one month or as long as f ive years, our strategy
identifies large positive momentum among factors.
CONCLUSION This contrasts sharply with stock momentum, which
exhibits reversal with respect to recent one-month
We document robust persistence in the returns performance, momentum at intermediate horizons of
of equity factor portfolios. This persistence is exploit- around one year and again reversal for windows
able with a time-series momentum trading strategy beyond two years.
that scales factor exposures up and down in propor- Factor momentum is a truly global phenom-
tion to their recent performance. Factor timing in enon. It manifests equally strongly outside the
this manner produces economically and statistically United States, both in a large global (excluding the
large excess performance relative to untimed United States) sample and f iner Europe and Pacific
factors. We aggregate individual factor timing region subsamples.
strategies into a combined time-series factor Taken alongside the evidence of time series
momentum strategy that dominates all individual momentum in commodity, bond, and currency factors
timing strategies. TSFM is (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen 2012), our findings of
The six theme factors are valuation, momentum, earnings
10 momentum among equity factors—in the time series,
quality, sustainable growth, management, and risk. Each theme in the cross section, and around the world—support
aggregates a set of closely related subfactors—for example, valuation the conclusion that factor momentum is a pervasive
includes book-to-market, earnings-to-price, and dividend yield. phe- nomenon in financial markets.
e x h iBi T a 1
Factor List
(continued)
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of Selected Papers; JAE Journal of Accounting and Economics; JAR Journal of Accounting Research; JF The Journal of Finance; JFE Journal of
Financial Economics; JFM Journal of Financial Markets; JFQA Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis; JFR Journal of Financial
Research; ROF Review of Finance; RFS The Review of Financial Studies; WP unpublished paper.
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Disclaimer
Gu, S., B. T. Kelly, and D. Xiu. “Empirical Asset Pricing via AQR Capital Management is a global investment management firm,
which may or may not apply similar investment techniques or methods of
Machine Learning.” Working paper, Yale, 2018. analysis as described herein. The views expressed here are those of the
authors and not necessarily those of AQR.
Harvey, C. R., Y. Liu, and H. Zhu. 2016. “... and the Cross-
Section of Expected Returns.” The Review of Financial To order reprints of this article, please contact David Rowe at
Studies 29 (1): 5–68. d.rowe@pageantmedia.com or 646-891-2157.