How to Increase the

Exports of Pakistan
Prepared by: Muzzamil Shahzad
Contents
• The economy of Pakistan
• The dept of Pakistan
• The Import bill of Pakistan
• Exports of Pakistan
• Things to do ?
• Conclusion
The Economy of Pakistan
• It is estimated that Pakistan has an economy of worth $300 Billions or
slightly more
• Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9
percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20.
• Consumer price inflation rose from an average of 6.8 percent in FY19
to an average of 10.7 percent in FY20.
• The depreciation of rupee against the dollar has been 13.8 % in FY20
• The policy rate was held at 13.25 percent from July to February but
was subsequently lowered to 7.0 percent over the remainder of FY20
to support dwindling activity
The Trend of Pakistan’s GDP
The dept of Pakistan
• As of August 2020, Total Public Debt and Liabilities of Pakistan is
estimated to be about ₨44.2 trillion/US$270 billion which is 106.8 percent
of gross domestic product (GDP) of Pakistan
• Since July-18, Pakistan has borrowed $23.4 Billion
• Pakistan borrowed $12.4 Billion in the FY-20, which 37% of its annual
budget
• The exports of Pakistan remains around $23 to $24 Billion.
• Similarly, as of March 2020, external Debt of Pakistan is now around
US$112 billion.
The dept of Pakistan
• Pakistan owes US$11.3 billion to Paris Club, US$27 billion to multilateral
donors, US$5.765 billion to International Monetary Fund, and US$12
billion to international bonds such as Eurobond, and sukuk.[4] About 15%
of the external debt which is estimated around US$17.1 billion (6.15% of
GDP) is owed to China due to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The import bill of Pakistan
• The import bill of Pakistan has increased from $15.4 Billion FY-04 to $54.8
Billion, which is annual growth rate of 8.7 %
• A major surge in import bill of $16 billion is due to construction work
underway by CPEC.
• So, for an economy of $300 Billion, ~$55 billion is the import bill is not
vague, but the issue is where the imports are consumed and translated into
downstream products.
• Only 4% of the total imports are convert to export related products and rest
96% is consumed directly as consumer goods.
Exports of Pakistan
• The exports of Pakistan are anticipated to be around $23 to $24 billion
• Textiles and worn clothing: US$4.1 billion (17.1% of total exports)
• Cotton: $3.5 billion (14.9%)
• Knitted or crocheted clothing and accessories: $2.9 billion (12%)
• Clothing accessories: $2.6 billion (10.9%)
• Cereals: $2.4 billion (9.9%)
• Leather/animal gut articles: $662.7 million (2.8%)
• Sugar and manufactured products: $519 million (2.2%)
• Fish and poultry: $422 million (1.8%)
Exports of Pakistan
• Mineral fuels including oil: $499.5 million (2.1%)
• Beverages, spirits, vinegar: $453.1 million (1.9%)
• Salt, sulfur, stone, cement: $445.4 million (1.9%)
• Fish and poultry: $422 million (1.8%)
Now what should we do ?
• Pakistan needs to touch those sectors which are untouched, in which the
downstream petrochemicals shall be worked onto.
• The max impact on Pakistan’s import is of crude oil, which is anticipated to
be around ~$15 Billion. In which $9 Billion are refined imports and $6
billion are crude.
• With old Power plants shutting down in near future, fuel oil production will
go down and will affect the refinery operations in Pakistan.
• Pakistan imported around ~$2.3 Billion worth thermoplastics in the year-
2018
• So, if we set up our own Naphta cracker, Ethylene, Propylene, will be
produced within Pakistan
Now what should we do ?
• It is anticipated that $400/ton Naphtha whereas downstream product is sold
at $1000/ton.
• Reduction in import bill by ~$3 Billion is direct
• Then since being a non-regulatory commodity, cost of construction
components like PVC pipes-, Low- and high-density Polyethylene Tanks,
Household products, fabrication equipment and many other areas where
plastics are used will go down.
• Currently Pakistan has a market of 250 KT of PVC, Pakistan Produces 200
KT of PVC, which means we import 50 KT of PVC to Pakistan.
• New PVC, LDPE, HDPE plants will be installed, resulted in reduced
unemployment rates.
Other things to do ?
• Pakistani’s should stop using any unnecessary imported item like dog, cat
food etc.
• Focus of Pakistan’s shall be on the use of Pakistani Produced products.
• Before 2030 Pakistan will also have its first PDH (Propylene
dehydrogenation plant), therefore, it we don’t set up a naphta cracker import
bill will increase further.
The Global PVC market
• The global PVC market is expected to grow up to 60 Million Tons
• Pakistan’s share will only be 250 KT till 2030, if no new PVC plants are
installed
• Huge margins for excess production and the strategic location of Pakistan
will help increase the imports of Pakistan not only in the form of PVC but
also in the form of its downstream products
Take back ownership
• Pakistan should take back ownership of what we own.
• Companies like Titiyan for gold exploration shall be taken by the Govt. of
Pakistan.
• Mineral development and exploration to be done.
Conclusively
• It has been found that conversion of Imports into exportable products is
required to be done by Pakistan.
• Reduction in loans
• Improved country wide infrastructure.
• Reforms for small businesses.
• Take back ownership from foreign companies

• References: The world bank, IMF, The news, Pakistan bureau.

Thanks