Lesson 9

The Global Demography

Learning Objectives

At the end of the lesson, the students should be able to:

a. discuss the relationship between population and

economic welfare;
b. identify the effects of aging and overpopulation; and
c. differentiate between contrasting positions over
reproductive health.
Demography

demo-meaning “the people”

graphy “measurement”

Demography is the statistical study of

human populations. Demography examines
the size, structure, and movements of
populations over space and time.
When couples are asked why they have children, their
answers are almost always about their feelings

For most, having a child is the symbol of a successful

union. It also ensures that the family will have a successor
generation that will continue its name.

However, there are few who worry how much strain a child
can bring to the household as he/she “competes” for the
parents’ attention and how much energy the family needs to
shower its love to an additional member.

Will the child be an economic asset or burden to the family?

Rural vs. Urbanized
 Rural communities often welcome an extra
hand to help in crop cultivation, particularly
during the planting and harvesting seasons.
 The poorer districts of urban centers also tend
to have families with more children because
the success of their “small family business
depends on how many of their members can
be hawking their wares on the streets.
 Urbanized, educated, and professional
families with two incomes, however, desire
just one or two progenies
 These families also have their sights on long-term
savings plan. They set aside significant parts of
their incomes for their retirement, health care, and
the future education of their child/children.
 Rural families view multiple children and large
kinship networks as critical investments.
 Urban families, however, may not have the same
kinship network anymore because couples live on
their own, or because they move out of the
farmland. It is usually the basic family unit that is
left to deal with Life’s challenges on its own
 These differing versions of family life determine the economic and
social policies that countries craft regarding their respective
populations.
 Countries in the “less developed regions of the world” that rely on
agriculture tend to maintain high levels of population growth.
 Urban populations have grown, but not necessarily because families
are having more children. It is rather the combination of the natural
outcome of significant migration to the cities by people seeking work in
the “more modern” sectors of society.
 International migration also plays a part. Today, 191 million people live
in countries other than their own, and the United Nations projects that
over 2.2 million will move from the developing world to the First
World countries
The “Perils” of Overpopulation
 Development planners see urbanization and industrialization as
indicators of a developing society, but disagree on the role of
population growth or decline in modernization
 This lengthy discussion brings back ideas of British scholar
Thomas Malthus, who warned in his 1978 “An Essay on the
Principle of Population that population growth will inevitably
exhaust world food supply by the middle of the 19 century.
 It was revived in the late 1960’s when American biologist Paul
R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne, wrote “The Population Bomb,”
which argued that overpopulation in the 1970’s and 1980’s will
bring about global environmental disasters that would lead to
food shortage and mass starvation
 Their recommendations ranged from the bizarre
(chemical castration) to the policy-oriented (taxing an
additional child and luxury taxes in child-related
products) to monetary incentives (paying off men who
would agree to be sterilized after two children) to
institution-building (a powerful Department of Population
and Environment).
 By limiting the population, vital resources could be used
for economic progress and not be “diverted” and
“wasted” to feeding more mouths.
 This argument became the basis for government
“population control” programs worldwide
 In the mid-20th century, the Philippines, China, and India
sought to lower birth rate on the belief that the expansion of
family members would lead to a crisis in resources, which
in return may result in widespread poverty, mass hunger,
and political instability.
 As early as 1958, the American policy journal, Foreign
Affairs, had already advocated “contraception and
sterilization” as the practical solutions to global economic,
social, and political problems.
 Advocates of population control contend for universal
access to reproductive technologies (such as condoms, pills,
abortion, and vasectomy) and more importantly, giving
women the right to choose whether to have children or not.
 Politics determine these “birth control” programs. Developed
countries justify their support for population control in
developing countries by depicting the latter as conservative
societies.
 Examples
• Population experts blamed the “irresponsible fecundity of
Egyptians for that nations run-on population growth
• The Iranian peasant’s “natural” libidinal tendencies for the
same rise in population slims
• Muslims as hypersexual and hyper-fecund and hence a drain
on resources
• Forced sterilization of 20 million “violators” of the Chinese
government’s One-Child Policy
• Vietnam and Mexico also conducted coercive mass
sterilization
It’s the Economy, not the Babies!
The use of population control to prevent economic crisis has its
critics.
 Betsy Hartmann disagrees with the advocates of neo-
Malthusian theory and accused governments of using
population control as a “substitute for social justice and much
needed reforms-such as land distribution, employment
creation, provision of mass education and health care.
 Neo-Malthusianism refers to the belief that population control
through the use of contraception is essential for the survival
of the earth’s human population
 Others pointed out that the population did grow fast in many
countries in the 1960’s, and this growth “aided economic
development by spurring technological and institutional
innovation and increasing the supply of human ingenuity”
 Advances in agricultural production have shown that the
Malthusian nightmare can be prevented.
 The “Green Revolution” created high-yielding varieties of
rice and other cereals, and along with the development of
new methods of cultivation increased yields globally, but
more particularly in the developing world.
 Between 1950 and 1984, global grain production increased
by over 250 percent, allowing agriculture to keep pace with
population growth, thereby keeping global famine under
control.
 Scholars and policymakers agree with the neo- Malthusians
but suggest that if governments pursue population control
programs, they must include “more inclusive growth” and
“greener economic growth.”
Women and Reproductive
Rights
 Women are often subject of these population measures. Reproductive rights
supporters argue that if population control and economic development were to reach
their goals, women must have control over whether they will have children or not
and when they will have their progenies – they will be able to pursue their
vocations,
 This correlation between family, fertility. And fortune has motivated countries with
growing economies to introduce or strengthen their reproductive health laws,
including abortion.
 High-income First World nations and fast-developing
countries were able to sustain growth in part because
women were given the power of choice and easy access to
reproductive technologies.
 In North America and Europe, 73% of governments allow
abortion upon a mother’s request. Moreover, the more
educated a woman is, the better are her prospects of
improving her economic position.
 Most countries implement reproductive health laws
because they worry about the health of the mother. In
1960, Bolivia’s average total fertility (TFR) was 6.7
children. In 1978, the Bolivian government put into effect
a family planning program that included the legalization of
abortion. In 1985, the TFR went down to 5.13 and further
declined to 3.46 in 2008
 A similar pattern occurred in Ghana after the
government expanded reproductive health laws out of
the same concern as that of the Bolivian government.
As a result, “fertility declined steeply and continued to
decline after 1994.”
 In 2014, the United Nations noted that the proportion
of countries allowing abortion to preserve the physical
health of a woman increased from 63% to 67%, and
those to preserve the mental health of a woman
increased from 52% to 64%
 Opponents regarded reproductive rights as
nothing but a false front for abortion. They
contend that this method of preventing
conception endangers the Life of the mother
and must be banned.
 The religious wing of the anti- reproductive
right flank goes further and describes
abortion as a debauchery that sullies the
name of God; it will send the mother to hell
and prevents the baby to become human.
 Unfailing pressure by Christian groups compelled
the governments of Poland, Croatia, Hungary,
Yugoslavia, and even Russia to impose restrictive
reproductive health programs, including making
access to condoms and other technologies.
 Muslim countries do not condone abortion and
limit wives to domestic chores.
 Senegal only allows abortion when the mother’s
life is threatened.
 The Philippines, with a Catholic majority, now has
a reproductive health law but conservative
politicians have enfeebled it through budget cuts
The Feminist Perspective
 Feminist approach the issue of reproductive rights from another angle. They are,
foremost, against any form of population control because they are compulsory by nature,
resorting to a carrot-and-stick approach (punitive mechanisms co-exist alongside
benefits) that actually does not empower women. They believe that government
assumptions that poverty and environmental degradation are caused by overpopulation
are wrong.

 These factors ignore other equally important causes like the unequal distribution of
wealth, the lack of public safety nets like universal health care, education, and gender
equality programs. Feminists also point out that there is very little evidence that point to
overpopulation as the culprit behind poverty and ecological devastation.
 Governments have not directly responded to these criticisms, but
one of the goals of 1994 United Nations International Conference
on Population and Development suggests recognition of this issue.
 Country representatives to that conference agreed that women
should receive family planning counseling on abortion, the dangers
of sexually transmitted diseases, the nature of human sexuality, and
the main elements of responsible parenthood.
 However, the conference also left it to the individual countries to
determine how these recommendations can be turned into
programs.
 Hence, globally, women’s and feminist arguments on reproductive
rights and overpopulation are acknowledged, but the struggle to
turn them into policy is still fought at the national level. It is the
dilemma that women and feminist movements face today.
Population Growth and
Health Security
 Today’s global population has reached 7.9 billion, and it
is estimated to increase to 9.5 billion in 2050, then TL2
billion by 2100.
 95% of this population growth will happen in the
developing countries, with demographers predicting that
by the middle of this century, several countries will have
tripled their population.
 The opposite is happening in the developed world
where populations remain steady in general, but
declining in some of the most advanced countries (Japan
and Singapore).
 Demographers predict that the world population will
stabilize by 2050 to 9 billion, although they warn that
feeding this population will be an immense challenge.
Top 20 countries in the world by
population (July 16, 2023)

According to www.Worldometers.info
The decline in fertility and the existence of a young productive
population, however, may not be enough to offset this concern
over food security.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that in order
for countries to mitigate the impact of population growth, food
production must increase by 70%; annual cereal production must
rise to 3 billion tons from the current 2.1 billion, and yearly meat
production must go up to 200 million tons to reach 470 million.
The FAO recommends that countries should increase their
investments in agriculture, craft long-term policies aimed at
fighting poverty, and invest in research and development
 The UN body also suggests that countries
develop a comprehensive social service program
that includes food assistance, consistent delivery
of health services, and education especially for
the poor.
 The FAO enjoins governments to keep their
markets open, and to eventually “move towards
a global trading system that is fair and
competitive, and that contributes to e
dependable market for food.”
 The aforementioned are worthy
recommendations but nation-states shall need
the political will to push through these sweeping
changes in population growth and food security.
Conclusion

Demography is a complex discipline that requires the integration of

various social scientific data. As you have seen, demographic
changes and policies have impacts on the environment,
politics, resources, and other. Yet, at its core, demography accounts for
the growth and decline of the human species. It may be about large
numbers and massive effects, but it is ultimately about people. Thus,
no interdisciplinary account of globalization is complete without an
accounting of people. The next lesson will continue on this theme of
examining people and will focus particularly on their global movement
THANK YOU!
 1. It examines the size, structure, and movements of
Choose the correct populations over space and time.
answer. 2. What does “Demo” mean?
3. What does “Graphy” mean?
A. Thomas Malthus 4. Who recommends that countries should increase their
B. The people investments in agriculture?
C. Measurement 5. Which is the most populated country?
D. Betsy Hartmann
E. Neo-Malthusianism 6. These are often the subject of these population measures.
F. Women 7. This approach tackles the issue of reproductive rights from
G. Feminist another angle.
H. India 8. It refers to the belief that population control through the use
I. Food and Agriculture of contraception is essential for the survival of the earth’s
Organization
J. Demography human population.
9. Who disagrees with the advocates of the neo-Malthusian
theory?
10. A British scholar wrote “An Essay on the Principle of
Population.”