Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Prob 101 Chap14 15
Prob 101 Chap14 15
2. P ( ) 0, P ( S ) 1
Laws of Probability (cont.)
3. P(A’ ) = 1 - P(A)
For an event A, A’ is the complement of A; A’
is everything in S that is not in A.
S
A'
A
Birthday Problem
• What is the smallest number of people you
need in a group so that the probability of 2
or more people having the same birthday is
greater than 1/2?
• Answer: 23
No. of people 23 30 40 60
Probability .507 .706 .891 .994
Example: Birthday Problem
• A={at least 2 people in the group have a
common birthday}
• A’ = {no one has common birthday}
364 363
3 people : P ( A' )
365 365
23 people :
364 363 343
P ( A' ) .498
365 365 365
so P ( A) 1 P ( A' ) 1 .498 .502
Unions and Intersections
S A
A B
A
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Mutually exclusive events-no outcomes
from S in common
A =
S
A
B
Laws of Probability (cont.)
Addition Rule for Disjoint Events:
S A
A B
Example: toss a fair die once
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• A = even # appears = {2, 4, 6}
• B = 3 or fewer = {1, 2, 3}
• P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
=P({2, 4, 6}) + P({1, 2, 3}) - P({2})
= 3/6 + 3/6 - 1/6 = 5/6
Laws of Probability: Summary
• 1. 0 P(A) 1 for any event A
• 2. P() = 0, P(S) = 1
• 3. P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
• 4. If A and B are disjoint events, then
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
• 5. If A and B are independent events, then
P(A B) = P(A) × P(B)
• 6. For any two events A and B,
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
Probability Models
5! 5!
5 4 20 5 4
(5 2)! 3!
5!
Notation : 5 P2 20
(5 2)!
Permutations with calculator
and Excel
• Calculator
non-graphing: nPr
• Graphing
p. 9 of T I Calculator Commands
(math button)
• Excel
Paste: Statistical, Permut
Combinations
ABCDE
• How many ways can we choose 2 letters
from the above 5, without replacement,
when the order in which we choose the
letters is not important?
• 5 4 = 20 when order important
• Divide by 2: (5 4)/2 = 10 ways
Combinations (cont.)
5! 5 4 20
5
2 5 C2
5!
(5 2)!2! 3!2! 1 2 2
10
n
r n Cr
n!
( n r )!r!
ST 101 Powerball Lottery
20
6 20 C6
20!
(20 6)!6!
38,760
North Carolina Powerball Lottery
Prior to Jan. 1, 2009 After Jan. 1, 2009
5 from 1 - 55: 5 from 1 - 59:
55! 59!
3, 478, 761 5, 006, 386
5!50! 5!54!
1 from 1 - 42 (p'ball #): 1 from 1 - 39 (p'ball #):
42! 39!
42 39
1!41! 1!38!
3, 478, 761*42 5, 006, 386*39
146,107, 962
195, 249, 054
Visualize Your Lottery Chances
• How large is 195,249,054?
• $1 bill and $100 bill both 6” in length
50!
Pick 5 : 50 C5 2,118,760
45!5!
2,118,760 25 C1
25!
2,118,760 52,969000
24!1!
Probability Trees
clinical
reliability
Probability Tree
clinical Multiply
reliability branch probs
clinical
reliability
Question 1 Answer
• What is the probability that a randomly
selected person will test positive?
• P(+) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593
Question 2
• If your test comes back positive, what is
the probability that you have HIV?
(Remember: we know that if a person has
the virus, the test result will be positive
with probability .999; if a person does not
have the virus, the test result will be
negative with probability .990).
• Looks very reliable
Question 2 Answer
Answer
two sequences of branches lead to positive
test; only 1 sequence represented people
who have HIV.
P(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376
Summary
• Question 1:
• P(+) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593
• Question 2: two sequences of branches lead
to positive test; only 1 sequence represented
people who have HIV.
P(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376
Recap
• We have a test with very high clinical reliabilities:
1. If a person has the virus, the test result will be positive
with probability .999
2. If a person does not have the virus, the test result will be
negative with probability .990
• But we have extremely poor performance when the
test is positive:
P(person has HIV given that test is positive) =.376
• In other words, 62.4% of the positives are false
positives! Why?
• When the characteristic the test is looking for is
rare, most positives will be false.
examples
1. P(A)=.3, P(B)=.4; if A and B are mutually
exclusive events, then P(AB)=?
A B = , P(A B) = 0
2. 15 entries in pie baking contest at state fair.
Judge must determine 1st, 2nd, 3rd place
winners. How many ways can judge make
the awards?
15P3 = 2730