ADM 3155 – Individual

Project
The present & future of EV industry
Hasan Mahboob Agha
Market Overview

• According to a study from the

period of 2018-2027, and based
on the year 2021, the electric
vehicles market was valued at
USD 411.02 Billion.
• The market value of electric
vehicles is expected to reach
USD 1393.33 Billion by 2027.
• The market value is facing a
compound annual growth rate
of 19.19%
 The production of EVs is on a steady and steep rise. While in
Electric the year 2013, 400,000 EVs were produced, 5.1 million EVs
were shipped to customers in 2018. This growth is expected
Vehicle to continue. The leading car manufacturers plan to produce
more than 20 million EVs per year in 2025 and 60 million in
market & the 2040. Expected electric vehicles on the road will number 250
million by 2030. It is, therefore, fundamental that this
Pandemic production and use be as green as possible. Almost half of
the electric cars on the road in 2018 were in China. Europe
accounted for 24% of the global fleet, and the United States
22%. Despite the current rapid growth, the market
penetration of electric cars is still limited to less than 1% of
the global car fleet today.
 • The global electric vehicle market has seen a big hit
Electric significantly affecting it by the economic consequences of
the covid-19 pandemic. At the beginning of the year of
Vehicle 2020, the year experienced a drop in new car registrations
about one-third of the previous year.
market & the • The overall year-on-year drop of the year marked 16%.
Pandemic • Although, the electric vehicle market has been impacted by
the covid-19, just like every other market, however, the
market is facing significant growth. electric car sales share
rose 70% to a record 4.6% in 2020.
 China
• The electrical vehicle market in China has experienced a
lower impact than in other regions with a drop-down
percentage in total new vehicle registrations of 9%.
• Major political measures eased the incentives for the electric
car market in China. By April 2020 and throughout the
pandemic, Purchase subsidies were cut by 10% and extended
Europe, China, through 2022. Reflecting economic concerns related to the
covid-19 pandemic, several cities relaxed car license policies,
and the US as allowing for more internal combustion engine vehicles to be
registered to support local car industries.
the biggest • The registration of the new electric vehicles happened to be
less than the overall car market in early 2020. but this
Electric situation was reversed in the second half of the year 2020 as
Vehicle China was able to constrain the covid-19 in the country.
• Thus, sales share has increased from 4.8% in the year 2019 to
markets reach 5.7% in the second half of 2020. And BEVs were about
80% of the new electric vehicles sold.
 United States
Europe, China,
• The US car market has declined by 23% in
and the US as 2020, while the electric vehicles market
the biggest fell less than the overall car market.
Electric Vehicle • In 2020, 295,000 new electric vehicles
markets were registered.
• Federal incentives though have decreased
in 2020 due to the federal tax credit for
Tesla and GM. (The two companies that
accounts for the majority of electric
vehicles registrations)
 Europe

• New electric vehicles market in Europe had

doubled to 1.4M showing a sales share of 10%.
• Germany registered 395,000 new electric vehicles
Europe, China,
• France registered 185,000 new electric vehicles
and the US as the • The UK reached double the registration to mark
biggest Electric 176,000 new electric vehicles
Vehicle markets • In Norway the market reached a record-high sales
share of 75% approx. up one-third from the year
2019.
• Sale shares of electric vehicles exceeded 50% in
Iceland, 30% in Sweden, and 25% in the
Netherlands.
Global electric passenger car stock, 2010-2020

12

10

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China BEV China PHEV Europe BEV Europe PHEV

United States BEV United States PHEV Other BEV Other PHEV
Electric truck registrations by region, 2015-2020

Electric truck registrations by region, 2015-2020

8

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China Europe United States

Electric bus registrations by region, 2015-2020

Electric bus registrations by region, 2015-2020

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China Europe United States

Increased • In Germany the government offers grants
Government up to 9000 Euros along with tax reductions
for purchasing of fully electric vehicles,
influence on the they also offer 40,000 for small to
medium-sized electric trucks and up to
Electric Vehicles 500,000 for heavy-duty trucks.
• The US Government (federal) offers up to
Industry $7,500 in tax credits for approved plug-in
electric vehicles. While California has a
plan and has announced a $3.9 billion
package that will help to put 1,000 zero-
emission cars, 1,000 school buses, and
1,000 public transit buses on the road.
Consumer and government spending on electric cars,
2015-2020
140 25

120
20
100

15
80

60
10

40
5
20

0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Consumer spending Government spending

Share of government spending as a percentage of total
Increased
Government
influence on • Governments also are adapting policies and regulations
that can be met by adopting electric vehicles.
the Electric • The European Commission has adopted some policies
intended to decrease greenhouse gas emissions that need
Vehicles a 55% decrease in the average CO2 emissions of new cars
by the year 2030 and also, a reduction of 100% by 2035.
Industry • European Union and the United States’ goal for electric
vehicles share of at least 50% by 2030.
• California aims to stop the sale of internal combustion
engine passenger cars in 2035.
 • In 2021, the number of publicly accessible
chargers has reached more than 1.8
Private companies million globally.
• Majority of the accessible chargers are in
drive growth in the the EU, UK or China.

EV charging • Most of the EU regulations are asking for a

ratio of 1 public charger per 10 electric
infrastructure vehicles, and the installation of one
charging point every 60 km on public
highways.
• As on January 13, 2022 US has 46,290
charging stations and 113,558 charging
outlets to serve 1.3 million Electric vehicles
on the road.
 Private companies drive growth in the EV charging infrastructure
Company Operating area Announced Target / actions
Amazon Global 2020 Orders 100000 BEV light-
commercial vehicles from
Rivian. Aims for zero emission by
2040

DHL Group Global 2019 Delivery of mail and parcels by

Evs. Aims for zero emissions
logistics by 2050

FedEx Global 2018 Transition to all zero-emission

vehicle fleet by 2040

Ingka Group Global 2018 Zero-emission deliveries in

(IKEA) leading cities by 2020 and in all
cities by 2025

Japan Post Japan 2019 Electrify 1200 mail and parcel

delivery vans by 2021 and net-
zero emission logistics by 2050
 Private companies drive growth in the EV charging infrastructure
Company Operating area Announced Target/actions
JD China 2017 Replace entire vehicle
fleet (more than 10000)
with new EVs by 2022
SF Express China 2018 Launch nearly 10000 BEV
logistics vehicles
UPS North America 2019 Order 10000 BEV light-
commercial vehicles
Walmart United States 2020 Electrify the whole vehicle
fleet by 2040
Various companies Multinational 2018 Pepsi, Anheuser-Busch,
FedEx, Sysco.
Pre-order 2000 Tesla Semi
models within six months
of truck’s debut.
 • The expectations for urban fleet electrification are aiming
that by the year 2030, over 50% of the global public bus
fleet will include electric buses, in comparison to 33% 2020
share.
Electrification • While Two-wheelers market is projected to reach 40% in
2030.
of fleets • Light commercial vehicles are projected to reach 28% in
2030, which is a significant increase from 2% in 2020. Same
as the passenger vehicles which is projected to reach 28%
in 2030 from 2.7% from the year 2020.
Integration of
renewables and
battery storage The mass deployment of
EV charging results in a
with EV large network of batteries
charging that becomes a way of
local storage. Along with
infrastructure smart-energy-management
systems, this presents a
advances significant shift potential to
balance the grid, reduce
carbon emissions and
increase the use of
renewables.
Key Market Players in The Electric Vehicles Industry

• Tesla was ranked as the best-

Global plug-in electric vehicle market share in
selling electric vehicle 2021, by main producer
manufacturer worldwide after
30.00
selling close to 936,200 units in 25.00
2021. Tesla's sales volume 20.00
translates into a market share of 15.00
just under 14 percent. 10.00
5.00
• Volkswagen Group and BYD were 0.00
among the runners-up. c. p D tis or up ce p* IC up orp
. IC r s
In r ou BY GM a n ot r o ia
n ou S A r o BA the
sla G el
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i M W G i All Gr r G tor
C O
T e
VW St d a z a
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M
o
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H its de - Vo y ot
e y To
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M
e rc e el
a G
iss M
tl -N
u
e na
R

Column2 Column3 Series 3

Key Market Players in The Electric Vehicles Industry

Plug-in electric vehicle sales growth 180.00

160.00
worldwide by the manufacturer in
140.00
2021. 120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
tis IC rp
. c. up up or p
AI
C p e
l a n GM SA C o a
In r o r o ot r ou B r ou i a nc
el or sl G rG iM G zG Al
l
St ot Te V W C a da W e n i
un BM sh
a
M l vo y e s-B u bi
ot Vo H d its
To
y l y- r ce - M
e e
Ge M an
si s
N
u lt-
na
Re

225.18 in % Series 3
Key Market Players in The
Electric Vehicles Industry
Tesla
• Tesla is among the most popular electric
vehicle brand. According to EV-Sales
blogspot.
• By the end of 2020, Tesla held an 18% market
share in electric vehicle sales, ahead of its
closest rival, Volkswagen, BYD, and BMW. It
recorded sales of 316,820 for the year up
until October 30th, 2020, compared with
113,091 for Volkswagen and 103,176 for
BMW.
• Tesla has sold 936,172 electric cars in the
year 2021, more than any other electric
vehicle manufacturer worldwide.
 Number of Tesla vehicles delivered worldwide from
1st quarter 2016 to 3rd quarter 2022 (in 1,000 units)
Tesla's vehicle sales by quarter YTD Q3 2022
1,000.00
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Number of Tesla vehicles produced worldwide from 1st
quarter 2016 to 3rd quarter 2022

In units

365,923
305,840

305,407

258,580
237,823
206,421
180,338
179,757
145,036
104,981

102,672
96,155
87,048
86,555

82,272
80,142

77,100
53,339
34,494
25,708
25,418

25,336
25,185

24,882

24,565
18,345
2.4

4.4

1.8

2.8
2

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022
 Tesla's revenue in the United States, China, and
other markets from FY 2018 to FY 2021
in millions U.S. dollars
United States China Other

23,973

16,006
15,207
14,872

13,844
12,653

9,667
8,946

6,662
4,832

2,979
1,757

2018 2019 2020 2021

 Number of Tesla employees from July 2010 to
December 2021
120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
December December December December December December December December December December December December
31, 2010 31, 2011 31, 2012 31, 2013 31, 2014 31, 2015 31, 2016 31, 2017 31, 2018 31, 2019 31, 2020** 31, 2021**
Key Market Volkswagen AG
Dr. Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen AG, said:
Players in The “Volkswagen is taking on responsibility with regard to the key
trends of the future – particularly in connection with climate
Electric protection. The targets of the Paris Agreement are our
yardstick. We will be systematically aligning production and
Vehicles other stages in the value chain to CO2 neutrality in the coming
years. That is how we will be making our contribution
Industry towards limiting global warming. Volkswagen is seeking to
provide individual mobility for millions of people for years to
come – individual mobility that is safer, cleaner, and fully
connected. In order to shoulder the investments needed for the
electric offensive we must make further improvements in
efficiency and performance in all areas.”
Key Market • Volkswagen Group presents New Auto strategy through
Players in The 2030
• Volkswagen has signed an agreement with Gotion High-
Electric Tech to industrialize battery cell production in Germany,
and Spain.
Vehicles • The revenue is expected to shift gradually from internal
Industry combustion engine powered cars (i.e. gasoline and diesel
cars) to electric vehicles (BEVs).
• The ICE market is expected to drop by more than 20% over
the next 10 years. At the same time BEVs is expected to rise
fast and become the leading technology with an estimation
of 1.2 trillion euro by 2030.
 Key Market Players in The Electric Vehicles
Industry
Volkswagen Group electric vehicle worldwide sales between 2013 and 2021
900,000

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
 Key Market Players in The Electric Vehicles
Industry
Number of Volkswagen AG employees worldwide from 2008 to
2021 (in 1,000s)
357 Column1 Column2

668

668
665
656
634
619
604
583
563
533
454
389
367

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
 BYD
• BYD is a Chinese company, it has sold
Key Market 593,745 EVs including 272,935 plug-in
hybrids, in 2021.
Players in The • Electric vehicles marked nearly 95% of
BYD’s vehicle sales in 2020
Electric Vehicles • After partnerships with local firms, BYD is
Industry taking EVs to Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam,
and India as well as bringing its ATTO 3
(one of its affordable small SUVs built on
BYD’s e-platform 3.0) to the Singapore
market.
• BYD has also announced, it will bring its
EVs to the Netherlands, Sweden, and other
European countries.
Key Market Players Top 15 Passenger car companies in China based
in The Electric on sales volume

Vehicles Industry 500.00

450.00
400.00
350.00
Among 15 leading Chinese 300.00
automobile manufacturers, BYD 250.00
200.00
was ranked in the first place 150.00
based on the sales volume with 100.00
548,000 units sold in 2021, this 50.00
represents an increase of 0.00
)
sla
s h ng y to ely gan gen zon gen
W or ION anc e er O
NI Au
405,000 units over the previous M Te ot A r p h Ge han wa Ho swa
SG l M GAC ile B
X C Li
( l C olks ol
k
year. ul
in
g
a t W
a
m
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- V
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- V
-W e o A A
Gr ut F S
- GM r A
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S e
a ss
-P
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S

584.02 Column1 Column2

Key Market Players in The
Electric Vehicles Industry Revenue of BYD Group from 2010 to
2021 (in billion yuan)
250.00

• In a way to help with the climate problem

situation, China has introduced some rules
200.00
that can shift back gasoline-powered cars,
and also increase producing electric
vehicles. 150.00
• BYD became the largest shareholder in the
Chinese electromobility market with EV
sales marking nearly 600,000 in 2021. 100.00

• In the same year of 2021 BYD had the

highest sales volume of battery electric 50.00
vehicles making it the number one
company in China.
0.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020 2021

46.69 Column1 Column2

Challenges for the growth of
the electric vehicle market
• to become clean transport, this shift to EVs should be done in
parallel with a rapid transition to electricity production from
renewable energy, cleaner production of electric batteries,
and well-organized reuse and recycling of these batteries.
• The production process of batteries and EV engines requires
the use of rare earth elements and consumes high amounts
of energy.
• The need to implement strategies for the reuse, recycling,
and disposal of the batteries used in EVs at the end of their
service life.
Challenges for the Share of rare earth element con-
growth of the electric sumption for batteries worldwide
from 2016 to 2020
vehicle market 10

Nearly eight percent of the global 8

consumption of rare earth elements 7
was used for battery production in 6
2021. And that is a decrease from
5
nine percent in the previous year.
4
The amount needed for main minerals 3
for EV batteries will increase from
2
around 200,000 tons in 2018 to
7,100,000 tons in 2030. 1

0
2016 2017 2019 2020
 Components/Minerals

Electric Vehicles need precious minerals, for both

the battery and the engine.
Challenges
for the The rare earth elements that are required in the
production of EVs are available in only small
growth of the amounts on the earth’s crust.
electric
vehicle The origin of many of these minerals are
concentrated in a few countries, (such as the
market Congo, Chile, and China)
 Major countries in rare
• China is ranked as the earth mine production
world’s largest REE worldwide 2021(in metric
producer status tons REO)
with 168,000 tonnes
Challenges for mined in 2021.
50,000

45,000

the growth of • At 42.6 percent of total

exports by 40,000

the electric volume, lanthanum was

China’s top rare earth
35,000

30,000

vehicle market export by a wide margin.

Lanthanum is used in
25,000

significant quantities in 20,000

hybrid vehicle batteries. 15,000

For instance, a Toyota 10,000
Prius contains 10-15
kilograms of the 5,000

substance. 0

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Environmental impacts
• Clear policies and global
regulations are needed,
Challenges for as the production and
use of EVs exhibit the
the growth of
5,000
Production of key battery
raw materials worldwide in
2018 with a projected de-
mand from energy tech-
nologies in 2050, by mineral
(in 1,000 metric tons)

potential for a significant 4,500

increase in human
the electric toxicity and metal
4,000

3,500
depletion impacts. Thus,
vehicle market New policies on 3,000

accelerating research for 2,500

new types of batteries 2,000
with a lower footprint 1,500
should be implemented.
1,000

500

0
Lithium Cobalt Graphite Nickel

Projected
Annual production
annual demand
in 2018from energy technologies in
2050
 Chart Title
45

Recycling 40

Challenges for • The recycling of an

electric vehicle’s battery
35

the growth of faces a double challenge:

reduce the amount of
30

the electric waste generated by a

battery at the end of its
25

vehicle market life and encourage the

reuse of as many
20

15
components and
resources involved in its 10
manufacture as possible.
5

0
LFP NCA NCM811 NCM622 NCM111

Aluminium Copper Manganese

Lithium Nickel Cobalt
 • Tesla recently built a production facility in China. The
company also plans to construct new facilities in
Brandenburg, Germany, and Austin, Texas. Tesla recently
Future Growth announced that it will begin operations in India, which
could be a major market for the company.
of Key EV • For the last three years, Tesla’s revenue has grown at a
compound annual growth rate of 37.8%. Tesla’s earnings
Companies before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization have
grown at a compound annual growth rate of 165.6% during
the same period.
• Tesla is focused on advancing its autopilot that enhances
safety and convenience behind the wheel
featuring FSD Full Self-Driving Capability.
 • Volkswagen Group is taking on responsibility regard to the key
trends of the future. The company is planning to introduce
about 70 new electric vehicle models in the upcoming 10
years. The projected number of vehicles to be built on the
company’s electric platform will increase from 15M to 22M.
• Volkswagen has signed off a comprehensive decarbonization
Future Growth program targeting achieving a full CO2 natural balance to
complete decarbonization in all aspects including the vehicles
of Key EV and administration by the year 2050. which is considered a
serious step toward the Paris climate target. The measures
Companies have three principles; effective and sustainable CO2 reduction,
switching to a renewable energy source, and compensating for
remaining emissions that are hard to avoid.
• Volkswagen also has a plan in place to boost e-mobility further
by installing 400 fast-charging stations on Europe’s main roads
and highways with an estimation of a station every 120km.
Wallboxes for charging at home using green power, and 3500
charging points on employee car parks at all plants in
Germany.
 Infographic Summary

Trends
Governments increase their
influence on the e-Mobility
industry. ISSUES Growth of Industry
Key Players Components/Minerals Rapid increase in revenue.
private companies drive growth in Environmental Impact
Tesla Availability of models.
the EV charging infrastructure Recycling
Volkswagen AG Affordability of models.
BYD Advancement in the technology
Electrification of fleets
and services.
Integration of renewables and
battery storage with EV charging
infrastructure advances.
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