MPA

presentation
Techniques of Group- 3
Decision making
For
BY-
Groups and Moksh gupta-23BC483
Ronit arya -23BC485
individual Diya bhatia -23BC486
Radhika -23BC487
Manan jain -23BC488
 WHAT IS A TECHNIQUE?
Techniques are procedures or methods, which involve a series of
steps to be taken to accomplish desired goals. It should not be
confused with principles, which are guidelines to take decisions
or actions while practicing techniques.
Example- In MPA presentation
Understanding the logic, signifies principle and in what way it
will be conducted is a technique.
 Techniques of Decision making
For Group
1. Brainstorming
2. Nominal group technique(NGT)
3. Delphi technique
4. Simulation
For Individual
5. Break even analysis
6.Decision tree analysis
7.Networking analysis PERT,CPM
8.Linear programming
9. Queuing
10. Risk analysis
 BRAINSTORMING
What exactly is Brainstorming?
• It's a method to generate ideas, basically means thinking out
of the box. It has several aspects
• Problem defining: so, as we know that the most important
thing to solve a problem, is to identify that there is one, so
identification is the 1st and foremost step.
Open idea generation- asking every member for active participation, encouraging wild and out of the box
ideas. At this stage QUANTITY OVER QUALITY is preferred. So there is a need of setting time limits, so that
nothing remains undone and nobody feels excluded incase of time shortage.
Example - individual time for one technique in MPA presentation.

Clarification and categorizing.- once the Brainstorming session is completed, we need to go over each idea to
ensure that everyone understands them, there is no confusion because there may be some ideas which need
further elaboration. And then combining similar ideas by identifying patterns.

Evaluation and prioritization- set a criteria for evaluation, it may be cost analysis, technical feasibility or the
quality of the product. Based on which we can across a priority list of certain ideas.

Action planning- next step would be initiating the action, Check if we have the necessary personnel All the
resources Who you should report to whom. Whether there is coordination among the departments.

Feedback- the last step will be gathering opinions about how the task went, whether there was chaos or the
environmental was healthy. A few things to remember when using brainstorming for decision making
 A FEW POINTS DIVERSITY OF
TO REMEMBER MEMBERS

COMBINE NO CRITICISM
BRAINSTORMING OR NEGATIVE
WITH OTHER
TECHNIQUES
FEEDBACK
OPEN
ENVIRONMENT
NEUTRAL
FACILITATOR
Nominal Group technique:
• Developed by ANDRE DELBECQ AND ANDREW VAN DE
VEN
 Similar to brainstorming but here limited
interaction
 Individually silently lists their ideas on sheet,
notepad
 These ideas are collected and shown on
screen ,board
 Discussion start , not only for critism but for
clarity
 Needed to vote on each idea and allot it a rank on
the basis of priority of each alternative solution
 The idea with highest cumulative ranking or
voting is selected as final solution .
Process of NGT:- 1.Structured
brainstorming

2.Discussion
4.consensus

3.Ranking-
voting
 Advantages and disadvantages of NGT
• ADVANTAGES: • DISADVANTAGES:
• Equal participation • Time consuming
• Flexible and adaptable • Requires all member to be
• Reduce conflict available at same time

• Foster creativity • To many ideas can also confuse

member .
 DELPHI TECHNIQUE

• It is a Qualitative technique of decision making .

• A panel of expert is appointed who are physically separated and
unknown to each other .
 Suggestions are invited anonymously.

 Suggestions obtained are compiled and composite feedback is provided to

panel members for inviting further suggestions.

 This process of giving suggestions is repeated till a convergence of opinions

begin to emerge.

 Decisions are taken when this convergence takes place. This helps to
improve the quality of decisions.
 To educate the group
on different steps of
the problem .

To explore the To generate

assumptions USES OF information that may
underlying the DELPHI lead to consensus
information METHOD among the group

To develop a range of
possible alternatives for
solving the problem.
 STEPS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE
1. A problem is identified.

2. A set of question are identified and built around the problem and
situation
under review. These questions are given a structured frame through a
questionnaire and each group members are asked to offer solutions to the
problem by providing anonymous responses to a carefully designed
questionnaires.

3. Responses of all group members are compiled by a coordinator and sent

out to all group members. The results are evaluated for reaching a
4. If the consensus is not reached a second questionnaire is designed to get
more responses and Ideas. This process of making questionnaire and
evaluation of them goes on till the point a consensus is obtained.

5. Once the consensus is obtained, a report is prepared on possible

solutions and decisions.
EXAMPLE :-
CONCLUSION:-

 This technique is popularly used in the field of medical sciences where

experts opinions are needed on a particular problem and solutions are
developed by experts till the point the consensus is not obtained.

 It is a daunting task to get a consensus where a team consisting of

experts is made to apply their minds on a problem but at the end of the
process the solution so obtained is the most credible one.

 this technique is a comprehensive technique of decision making, so it

is time consuming and costly.
 It is usually undertaken by an organization in case of problems where there is no
scope of error.

ADVANTAGES :-

 One of the main advantages of the Delphi technique is that the group members are
totally independent and are not influenced by the opinion of other members.

 An expert who is geographically separated can also contribute his thoughts and
opinions so that the cost associated with bringing these experts together is avoided.
SIMULATION as a GROUP DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUE

Simulation is a Powerful Group Decision-

Making Technique used to Model Real-
World scenarios and Explore various
Outcomes under Different Conditions. It
involves Creating a Computer-based or
Mathematical model that Mimics a
Complex system, allowing Decision-
Makers to make Informed Choices based
on the Simulated Results.
 SCENARIO
EXPANDING A RESTAURANT CHAIN
Imagine a Group of Restaurant Managers who want
to Expand their Chain
Several Alternatives available:
• Opening New Branches in different cities
• Introducing a Delivery Service
• Renovating existing Locations.

Simulation Can Help Them Evaluate These Options

 STEPS INVOLVED
Model Input Simulation
Development Parameters Runs

Decision-
Risk Assessment Data Analysis
Making

Implementation Continuous
Planning Monitoring
 HOW SIMULATION WORKS?

• The managers work • They define a range of input • The simulation software

2. Input Parameters

3. Simulation Run
1. Model Development

together to create a parameters relevant to each runs multiple scenarios for

simulation model that expansion alternative. For each expansion alternative.
replicates their current instance: for opening new For example:
restaurant operations. It branches, parameters may • Scenario 1: Open three new
includes variables like: include -> location selection, branches in different cities
• Customer Traffic marketing budgets, and with varying marketing
• Menu Offerings expected customer footfall. budgets.
• Staffing • For introducing delivery, • Scenario 2: Introduce a
• Operating Costs parameters might involve delivery service with
delivery times, delivery different delivery radius
radius, and marketing options and advertising
strategies. strategies.
• Scenario 3: Renovate
existing locations with
different levels of
investment and menu
changes.

Each scenario simulates the impact on customer traffic,

sales, costs, and profits over a specified time period.
 HOW SIMULATION WORKS?

• The Managers • Simulation Allows • Based on the

4. Data Analysis

6. Decision-Making
5. Risk Assessment
Analyze the the Group to Assess Simulation Outcomes
Simulation Results Risks associated with and the Group's
for each Scenario. each expansion Priorities (e.g.,
They Examine key alternative. They can maximizing profit,
Performance explore how factors minimizing risk), the
Indicators such as: like: Managers can Make
• Revenue • Market Competition an Informed Decision
• Profitability • Economic Conditions about which
• Customer • Customer Expansion
Satisfaction Preferences Alternative to
• Return on • might affect Pursue.
• They can Identify the
Investment (ROI) outcomes in different
scenarios Scenario that Aligns
Best with their
Business Goals.
 HOW SIMULATION WORKS?

• Once a Decision is Made, • After Implementing the

8. Continuous Monitoring
7. Implementing Plan
the Managers can Use the Chosen Expansion
Insights Gained from Strategy, the Managers
Simulation to Create an can Continuously
Implementation Plan for Monitor the Real-World
the Chosen Expansion Results and Compare
Strategy. This Plan them to the Simulated
includes details such as: Outcomes. This Ongoing
• Location Selection Feedback Loop Helps
• Marketing Tactics them Make Adjustments
• Budget Allocation as Needed.
• Timeline
 SUMMING UP!
By using Simulation in this manner, the Group of Managers
can Assess the Potential Outcomes of various expansion
alternatives in a Controlled, Risk-free Environment.

It Enhances their Decision-Making Process by providing

Data-Driven Insights and helps them Choose the Most Viable
and Profitable Path for Business Expansion.
 Techniques For
INDIVIDUAL DECISION
 BREAKEVEN
ANALYSIS
MEANING
•Break-even analysis in
economics, business, and cost
accounting refers to the point at
which total costs and total revenue
are equal. A break-even point
analysis is used to determine the
number of units or dollars of
revenue needed to cover total
costs (fixed and variable costs).
 Break-Even Quantity
= Fixed Costs /
FORMULA FOR
CALCULATING (Sales Price per Unit
THE
BREAKEVEN – Variable Cost Per
POINT
Unit)
 EXAMPLE
Colin is the managerial accountant in charge of Company A, which sells water bottles.
He previously determined that the fixed costs of Company A consist of property taxes,
a lease, and executive salaries, which add up to $100,000. The variable cost associated
with producing one water bottle is $2 per unit. The water bottle is sold at a premium
price of $12. To determine the break-even point of Company A’s premium water
bottle:

Break Even Quantity = $100,000 / ($12 – $2) = 10,000

 BENEFITS OF BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

FINDING MISSING LIMITING SETTING GOALS SECURING PRICING

EXPENSES. DECISIONS BASED FUNDING APPROPRIATELY
ON EMOTIONS
 Decision Tree Analysis:
A Decision Tree Analysis is a graphical
representation of various alternative solutions
that are available to solve a problem.
Tree like model of decision .
A decision tree shows at a glance all possible
events in quantitative form so that decision
making becomes more precise .
Example of Decision tree technique
Improve existing product
Success -75%

failure -25%

Success – 60%

Add new product

Failure -40%
 NETWORK ANALYSIS
• PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path
Method) are both network analysis techniques used for project planning
and management. They help in determining the sequence of tasks and
their dependencies, enabling efficient scheduling of tasks and optimal use
of resources
• Here's a brief overview:
 PERT
VS
Purpose: Developed primarily for complex
projects, especially those which have
uncertain task durations. Often used for R&D
projects.
Duration Estimates: Uses three time
estimates for each activity: Optimistic (o),
Most Likely (m), and Pessimistic (p)
Network Diagram: Uses event-oriented
nodes, meaning nodes represent the start or
completion of tasks.
Slack time (the extra time that a task can be
delayed without delaying the project.
Critical Path: Identifies the longest path
through the network diagram. Tasks on this
path cannot be delayed without delaying
the entire project.
CPM
Purpose: Developed for projects with
well-known task durations, typically used
in construction.
Duration Estimates: Uses only one,
deterministic time estimate for each
activity.
Network Diagram: Activity-oriented,
meaning the tasks (or activities)
themselves are represented on the nodes.
Slack Time: Like PERT, CPM also
considers slack time.
Critical Path: Identifies the longest path
through the network diagram. Tasks on
this path cannot be delayed without
delaying the entire project.
 NETWORK DIAGRAM
TASK 4
TASK 1 TASK 7
(2
(1 DAY) (2 DAYS)
DAYS)

TASK 5
TASK 2
START (4 FINISH
(3 DAYS)
DAYS)

TASK 3 TASK 6 TASK 8

(1 DAY) (2 DAYS) (3 DAYS)
 APPLICATIONS

By understanding and utilizing PERT and CPM, project

managers can optimize scheduling, allocate resources more
efficiently, identify bottlenecks, and predict project completion
times with higher accuracy.
Defense Industry: PERT/CPM plays a crucial role in managing
large-scale projects related to the development and production
of complex weapon systems. It aids in the meticulous planning,
scheduling, and coordination of activities, ensuring efficient
project execution.
 LINEAR PROGRAMMING
• The word linear refer to any linear relationship among variables in a
model. It means that any change in one variable will result into a
proportional change in other variables.
• Programming refers to any problem that can be modelled and solved
mathematically.
• According to William M Fox “linear programming is a planning technique
that permits some objective functions to be minimized or maximised
within that framework of given situational restrictions.”
 Linear programming is a useful quantitative technique.

 It is used to determine the optimal mix of limited resources for

maximizing profits or minimizing costs.

 It is commonly used by the managers to guide the allocation of

resources which are limited and have multiple uses.

 Some common decisions taken with the help of this technique includes
decision relating to product mix and composition of factors of production.

 It is an extension of break-even analysis and involves the solution of linear

equations.
 PROPERTIES OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING
MODEL

• Relationship among decision variables must be linear in nature.

• A model must have an objective function

• Resources constraints are essential

• A model must have a non-negativity constraint

 FORMULATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Formulation of linear programming is the representation of problem situation in

a mathematical form. It involves well defined decision variables, with an
objective function and set of constraints .
 Objective Function: All linear programming problems aim to either maximize or
minimize some numerical value representing profit, cost, production quantity, etc.
It evaluates the amount by which each decision variable would contribute to the
net present value of a project or an activity.

 Constraints: The restrictions or limitations on the total amount of a particular

resource required to carry out the activities that would decide the level of
achievement in the decision variables. In the standard form of a linear programming
problem, all constraints are in the form of equations.
 Non-negative constraints: Each decision variable in any Linear Programming
model must be positive irrespective of whether the objective function is to
maximize or minimize the net present value of an activity. This is a critical
restriction.

EXAMPLE :- Consider a chocolate manufacturing company that produces only

two types of chocolate – A and B. Both the chocolates require Milk and Choco only.
To manufacture each unit of A and B, the following quantities are required:
•Each unit of A requires 1 unit of Milk and 3 units of Choco
•Each unit of B requires 1 unit of Milk and 2 units of Choco
The company kitchen has a total of 5 units of Milk and 12 units of Choco. On each
sale, the company makes a profit of
•Rs 6 per unit A sold
•Rs 5 per unit B sold.
Now, the company wishes to maximize its profit. How many units of A and B should
it produce respectively?
SOLUTION :-
Let the total number of units produced by A be = X
Let the total number of units produced by B be = Y
Now, the total profit is represented by Z
The total profit the company makes is given by the total number of units of A
and B produced multiplied by its per-unit profit of Rs 6 and Rs 5 respectively.
Profit: Maximize Z = 6X+5Y (OBJECTIVE FUNCTION)
• The company will try to produce as many units of A and B to maximize
the profit. But the resources Milk and Choco are available in a limited
amount.
As per the above table, each unit of A and B requires 1 unit of Milk. The
total amount of Milk available is 5 units. To represent this mathematically,
X+Y ≤ 5 (CONSTRAINT )
Also, each unit of A and B requires 3 units & 2 units of Choco respectively. The total
amount of Choco available is 12 units. To represent this mathematically,
3X+2Y ≤ 12 ( CONSTRAINT 2 )

Also, the values for units of A can only be integers.

So we have two more constraints, X ≥ 0 & Y ≥ 0
For the company to make maximum profit, the
above inequalities have to be satisfied.
This is called formulating a real-world problem
into a mathematical model.
QUEUING as an Individual DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUE

Queuing, as an Individual Decision-Making

Technique, involves making Choices
related to Waiting in Line or Joining a
Queue to Optimize Personal Goals or
Preferences .
Queuing as an Individual Decision-Making
Technique is Choosing the Shortest or
Fastest Line when Waiting, like Picking the
Quickest Checkout Lane at a supermarket.
 SCENARIO
Choosing A Checkout Line at a Super Market

Imagine you are at a Busy Supermarket

with Multiple checkout lanes,
and you want to Minimize your
Waiting Time in Line.

Queuing Theory Can Help You Make an Informed Decision

 STEPS INVOLVED
Data
Observation Arrival Rate
Collection

Estimated
Calculate Queue
Waiting
Utilization Length
Time

Decision-
Adaptation
Making
 HOW QUEUING WORKS?

• First, you Observe • You Gather Data • You Estimate the

1. Observation

3. Arrival Rate
2. Data Collection
the Available on how Long it Arrival Rate of
checkout Lines. takes for each Customers at each
• You Note the Customer to Checkout Line,
Number of People Complete their which is the
in Each Line and Transaction at the Average Number of
• Estimate the Checkout. Customers Joining
Number of Items in • This can Help you the Line per
their Shopping Estimate the Minute.
Carts. Service Rate (How
many Customers
are Served per
Minute) for each
Line.
 HOW QUEUING WORKS?

• Calculate the • Using the Arrival • Using Queuing

6. Estimated Wait Time

4. Queue Length

5. Calculate Utilization
Average Queue Rate and Service Models or simple
Length for Each Rate, you can calculations, you
Line, considering Calculate the Estimate the
both the Customers Utilization of each Average Time you
in Front of you and Checkout Line. will Spend Waiting
those in Front of • Utilization in each Checkout
them. represents how Line.
Efficiently the • This Estimate
Cashiers are considers the
Serving Customers. Length of the
• It's Calculated as Queue, the Speed of
the Arrival Rate Service, and the
divided by the Arrival Rate.
Service Rate.
 HOW QUEUING WORKS?

• Based on your • If Conditions

8. Adaptation
7. Decision-Making
Estimations, you Change (e.g., a
Choose the Cashier Opens a
Checkout line with New lane, or
the Shortest Another line
Estimated Waiting suddenly Moves
Time. Faster), you may
• This Line should Adapt your Decision
Theoretically and
Minimize your Time • Switch to a different
Spent Waiting. Line if it Offers a
Shorter Wait Time.
 CONCLUSION!
 By applying Queuing Theory in this Scenario, You can
Make a more Informed Decision about which Checkout Line
to Join, Optimizing your Waiting Time and Overall Shopping
Experience.

 Queuing Theory helps Individuals make Efficient Choices

when confronted with Queues, Minimizing the Time Spent
Waiting in Line.
 MEANING: The term risk analysis refers
to the assessment process that identifies the
potential for any adverse events that may
negatively affect organisations and the
environment.

Conducting a risk analysis can help

RISK organisations determine whether they
should undertake a project or approve a
ANALYSIS financial application, and what actions they
may need to take to protect their interests.

This type of analysis facilitates a balance

between risks and risk reduction.
 1. Risk-benefit analysis. Typically used for decision-
making in the healthcare and environmental sectors, this
type of risk analysis weighs the prospective benefits and
risks of a choice or course of action.
2. Business impact analysis (BIA). A BIA evaluates the
possible effects of disruptions to crucial business
processes. Organizations can use this study to determine
TYPES OF which procedures are most crucial to their business
operations and create backup plans to lessen the effects of
RISK disruptions and ensure business continuity in the wake of
disasters.

ANALYSIS 3. Needs assessment analysis. A needs assessment is a step-

by-step method of determining what a business needs and
where it's deficient or not doing so well.
4. Root cause analysis. A root cause analysis pinpoints the
underlying reasons behind a specific problem, issue or
undesirable outcome.
 QUALITATIVE VS QUANTITATIVE
RISK
A quantitative risk analysis, in
A qualitative risk analysis produces
contrast, examines the overall risk
subjective results because it gathers
of a project and generally is
data from participants in the risk
conducted after a qualitative risk
analysis process based on their
analysis. The quantitative risk
perceptions of the probability of a
analysis numerically analyzes the
risk and the risk's likely
probability of each risk and its
consequences.
consequences.
QUIZ TIME
Which technique emphasized the fact that there should not be
any criticism and negative feedback accepted?

1.Nominal group technique

2.Brainstorming
3.Risk analysis
4.Simulation
 In a group decision-making process using simulation, what
critical aspect should be considered when interpreting the
simulation results?

A) The opinions of the most senior member in the group.

B) The scenario with the most favorable outcome.
C) The potential limitations and assumptions of the simulation
model.
D) The decision that aligns with personal preferences.
THANK YOU