CHAPTER 2 (PART 1)

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

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 CONTENTS
2.1 Estimate, Estimation, Estimator
2.1.1 Definition
2.1.2 Properties of Good Estimator
2.1.3 Confidence Interval

2.2 Confidence Interval For Population Mean

2.3 Confidence Interval For Difference Between Two Population Means

2.3.1 Independent Samples
2.3.2 Dependent Samples

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 CONTENTS

2.4 Confidence Interval For Population Proportion

2.5 Confidence Interval For Difference Between Two Population Proportions

2.6 Confidence Interval For Population Variance and Population Standard Deviation

2.7 Confidence Interval For Ratio Of Two Population Variances

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 2.1

ESTIMATE, ESTIMATION,
ESTIMATOR

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LEARNING OUTCOME

Define and identify the statistical term of estimate, estimation and estimator.

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 DEFINITION
ESTIMATE, ESTIMATION, ESTIMATOR

ESTIMATE (NOUN) DEFINITION

• A summary measure is calculated based on a sample (statistic (Chapter 1)), which is used to infer or approximate an unknown
parameter (Chapter 1) or quantity of interest in the population.

ESTIMATION (VERB) DEFINITION

• A process in which the numerical value of an unknown population value (parameter) is inferred from sample data.

ESTIMATOR (NOUN) DEFINITION

• A statistic is used to infer the value of an unknown parameter in a statistical distribution/statistical model.

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 OVERVIEWS
TYPES OF ESTIMATION

ESTIMATION

POINT ESTIMATION INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Draws inference about a population(s) by Draws inference about population(s) by
estimating the value(s) of the unknown estimating the value(s) of the unknown
parameter(s) using a single value or point. parameter(s) using an interval.

 

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 OVERVIEWS
THE PROPERTIES OF A GOOD POINT ESTIMATOR

PROPERTIES OF GOOD POINT ESTIMATOR

UNBIASED CONSISTENCY EFFICIENCY SUFFICIENCY

Proof (Statistical theory): Proof (Statistical theory): Proof (Statistical theory)

Proof (Statistical theory):
Chebyshev’s inequality Cramer’s Rao Inequality Factorisation theory
(Expectation)
(Convergence) (Variance) (Independent)

IMPORTANT NOTE
Each notation of and represents a parameter; Each notation of and represents a statistic
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 OVERVIEWS
POINT ESTIMATION (THE UNBIASED POINT ESTIMATOR FOR PARAMETER)

UNBIASED POINT ESTIMATOR

POPULATION
POPULATION MEAN POPULATION PROPORTION
POPULATION VARIANCE
STANDARD DEVIATION

IMPORTANT NOTE
Each notation of and represents a parameter; Each notation of and represents a statistic
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 OVERVIEWS
INTERVAL ESTIMATION (THE MAIN DISH IN CHAPTER 2)

An interval of numbers around the point estimate, that has a fixed “degree of confidence” of containing the
parameter value. A general form of a confidence interval (C.I.) can be expressed as
PARAMETER

STATISTIC

where is the margin of error and the confidence level is is the probability notation.

* Note: In practice, the width of the confidence interval is measures the degree of the uncertainty.

Additional Knowledge (YouTube):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFWsuO9f74o&list=PLm9FYjKtq7Py3ZTA8vwNmAkxXjC1WVw9P
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 OVERVIEWS
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL COVERED IN CHAPTER 2

POPULATION

ONE TWO

MEAN PROPORTION VARIANCE MEAN PROPORTION VARIANCE

(SUB-CHAPTER 2.2) (SUB-CHAPTER 2.4) (SUB-CHAPTER 2.6) (SUB-CHAPTER 2.3) (SUB-CHAPTER 2.5) (SUB-CHAPTER 2.7)

MY ADVICE IS BASED ON MY PAST EXPERIENCE

Please ensure that you fully understand these all sub-chapters. Otherwise, you will face “trouble” in Chapter 3.

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 2.2

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR

POPULATION MEAN

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 LEARNING OUTCOMES

Estimate the confidence interval for the population mean when population variance/standard
deviation is known or unknown.

Estimate the sample size using the concept of a confidence interval for the population mean.

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 DETERMINATION OF THE SAMPLE SIZE
MARGIN OF ERROR

Confidence for One Population Mean

Proof:
In general, we know that , therefore
IMPORTANT NOTE
This concept also applicated to another two confidence intervals in this sub-
chapter, which has been quested in the past year’s test questions.

i. with
STATISTICAL TABLE
ii. with
(Page 8)

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 NARROWING THE WIDTH
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR ONE POPULATION MEAN

Confidence Interval for One Population Mean

with the margin of error, . Henceforth, THREE (3) scenarios can be narrowed the width of the confidence interval
above based on .

i.Scenario 1: Increase value, while and remain unchanged.

ii.Scenario 2: Decrease value, while and remain unchanged.

iii. Scenario 3: Increase value, while and remain unchanged.

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 ONE-SIDED CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR ONE POPULATION MEAN

LOWER ONE-SIDED UPPER ONE-SIDED

• SCENARIO 1: POPULATION VARIANCE IS KNOWN • SCENARIO 1: POPULATION VARIANCE IS KNOWN

• SCENARIO 2: POPULATION VARIANCE IS UNKNOWN, AND • SCENARIO 2: POPULATION VARIANCE IS UNKNOWN, AND
SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE

• SCENARIO 3: POPULATION VARIANCE IS UNKNOWN, AND • SCENARIO 3: POPULATION VARIANCE IS UNKNOWN, AND
SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE

IMPORTANT NOTE
Since there is some measurement unit that is not allowed for negative values, therefore you are advised to use zero instead of for the
100% upper one-sided confidence interval.

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 94)
QUESTION 1

The mass of vitamin E in a capsule manufactured by a certain drug company is normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 0.042 mg (*Note: Parameter (Keyword: Normally distributed)). A random sample of 5
capsules was analysed and the mean mass of vitamin E was found to be 5.12 mg. Find a 95% confidence
interval for the population mean mass of vitamin E per capsule. Given an interpretation of the parameter
estimate.

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 94)
SOLUTION

Based on the question, we know that mg, , mg, . Hence, .

mg

Interpretation: We are 95% confident that the population mean mass of vitamin E per capsule lies within
5.0832 mg and 5.1568 mg.

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 94)
QUESTION 2

A random number of 100 pieces of wood are cut using a machine. The sample mean length is 1.06 cm and the
sample standard deviation is 0.08 cm.

a)Find a 90% confidence interval for the mean length of all the wood that was cut using the machine and
interpret your answer.
b)What is the width of this confidence interval?

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 94)
SOLUTION

a) Based on the question, we know that , , . Hence, .

cm

Interpretation: We are 90% confident that the true mean length of all the woods cut by the machine lies
within 1.0468 cm and 1.0732 cm.
b) cm

*Note: Lower bound & Upper bound is an interchangeable term for Upper limit and lower limit, respectively SLIDE | 20
 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 95)
QUESTION 3

A study on a number of drills that can be made by microdrill machines is conducted. A random sample of 15
micro drill machines was drawn and the data is given as follows.

13 11 10 15 12 8 16 13 11 11 14 10 15 12 9

Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of drills that can be made by the microdrill. Give a comment
on the parameter estimate.

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 95)
SOLUTION

Based on the question, we know that , , . Hence, .

Interpretation: We are 95% confident that the true mean number of drills that can be made by the microdrill
machine lies within 11 and 14.

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 EXERCISE 2.1 (Page 95)
QUESTION 4

The results of a stress test, is known to be a normally distributed random variable with mean and standard
deviation 1.3. It is required to have a 95% confidence interval for with a total width of less than 2. Find the least
number of tests that should be carried out to achieve this.

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 EXERCISE 2.1
SOLUTION

Based on the question, we know that , . Hence, .

Therefore, the minimum number of tests required is 7.

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 ADDITIONAL EXERCISE 1
ONE-SIDED CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

A leakage test was conducted to determine the effectiveness of a seal designed to keepplugged inside of a plug
air tight. An air needle was inserted in the plug and this was placed under water. The pressure was then
increased until leakage was observed. Let equal the pressure in pounds per square inch. Assume that the
distribution of (continuous random variable) is normally distributed with mean and standard deviation , and the
following are the ten sample observations of collected from an experiment.

3.1 3.3 4.5 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.3

i. Find the point estimate of and , respectively.

ii. Find a 95% upper one-sided confidence interval for the true average of the pressure. Hence, interpret your
result.

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 ADDITIONAL EXERCISE 1
SOLUTION

i. lbs in-2; lbs in-2

ii. Based on the question, we know that , and . Therefore,

lbs in-2
Interpretation:
We are 95% confident that the maximum true mean pressure is less than 3.8766 lbs in-2.
s

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 ADDITIONAL EXERCISE 2
ONE-SIDED CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

An interior automotive supplier places several electrical wires in a harness. A pull test measures the force
required to pull spliced wires apart. A customer requires that each wire that is spliced into the harness must
withstand a pull force of 20 pounds. Let (continuous random variable) represent the force required to pull 20
gauges wire apart. Assume that the distribution of The following data give 20 observations of .

28.8 24.4 30.1 25.6 26.4 23.9 22.1 22.5 27.6 28.1
20.8 27.7 24.4 25.1 24.6 26.3 28.2 22.2 26.3 24.4

Find a 99% lower one-sided confidence interval for the population mean of the pull force required and interpret
the result.

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 ADDITIONAL EXERCISE 2
SOLUTION

Based on the question, we know that , lbs; lbs, , and . Therefore,

lbs
Interpretation:
We are 99% confident that the minimum population mean of pull force required is greater than 24.0591 lbs.
s

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 THANK YOU
END OF CHAPTER 2 (PART 1)

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