 

Lecture 2: War and Strategy

1. Evolution of warfare & strategy
2. The study of war and human nature
explanation of war
3. Categories of strategy
4. Level of Strategy
5. Source of power and elements of strategy
6. Principles of war
 The First Wave Civilization (Agrarian)

 The Second Wave Civilization is industrial

(Modern Warfare)

 The Third Wave (Information Warfare).

(Alvin Toffler)
 The
First Wave Civilization is agrarian.
 The society after agrarian revolution and replaced the first hunter-
gatherer cultures
• The spread of agriculture coupled with domestication of animals
 The emergence of a society & the development of many new weapons
• Stone tools and weapons gave way to Bronze - A revolution in warfare.
• axe, armor, helmet, composite bow, the wheel and chariot
 The revolution in social structures that rested upon the new economic base
was the most important factor responsible for the emergence of warfare.
I .e: starting by supporting public work : irrigation, pyramid etc.
• Egypt & Ancient Sumeria (Mesopotamia) - inevitably gave form and
stability to military structures.
 Agriculture became the basis for the nation-state in the ancient period
 Fortification warfare – defensive warfare
(Alvin Toffler)
 The First Wave Civilization is agrarian. [Examples]
Mongol Armies
o Quality, not quantity and the Mongols would prioritize mobility and
swiftness
o Their tactics enabled them to conquer nearly all of continental Asia, the
Middle East and parts of eastern Europe. Use: silk clothing, archer, horses,
catapult, etc.
Roman Empire
o Personal Weaponry & Armor [ Sword, Spear and armor & shields]
o Artillery i.e heavy javelin [spear] , rely on siege and fortification

Crusades Warfare
• Infantry and cavalry dominate the battlefield.
• The Crusaders were generally less mobile vs Seljuk Turks with horse archers.
• Special Unit [Knight] & Siege warfare
 TheFirst Wave Civilization is agrarian.
Example:
 Ottoman Empire [Middle Ages]
• Ottoman navy - was one of the first to use cannons – its navy ruled the shipping
lanes of the eastern Mediterranean,
• The Ottoman army was the largest in Europe.
• Tactics and weapon : artillery and field fortifications in the center, sequential lines
of troops, generally wait absorb the enemy then counter attack.
• Between 1444 and 1448 : regular rifle infantry, artillery soldier, bombardiers
(Kumbaraci) consisting of grenadiers that threw explosives and the soldiers that
served the artillery with maintenance and powder supplies.
 The Mongol empire was the largest the world has ever seen, at least as a contiguous dominion. It
stretched from the Sea of Japan in the east to the Mediterranean and the Carpathian mountains in the
west. At its peak it had more than a million men under arms. Leader: Gengis Khan. Successor:
Mongke (1251)-- Hulagu (1256)--Kublai (1264) Yuan Dynasty
 The Mongol armies : (a) relied mainly on light cavalry, avoiding hand-to-hand fighting as much as possible. Their
fighting techniques were essentially those that had long been practised in their homeland, such as encirclement and
feigned retreats, but these were refined and disciplined by Chinggis Khan. (b) Discipline was strict but
democratic: Chinggis Khan would promote an able man over the heads of princes, but he expected unwavering
obedience to orders: one general who disobeyed was reduced to the ranks. But initiative was also prized.
 [c] adaptable and were quick to incorporate new methods of fighting when they encountered them -
including even gunpowder in China. (d) They made use of mercenaries, who were skilled in tackling fortified
cities with mines or catapults. But their great advantage was always their mobility, which often enabled them to
take their enemies by surprise.
 [e] Cities were usually offered the option of surrender, in which case they would not be plundered or their
inhabitants slaughtered, but if they later rebelled the Mongols were merciless and killed everyone apart from those
they thought might be useful to them. But choosing the right moment to surrender could be critical: if a feudal lord
submitted too soon, before his sovereign had been defeated, Chinggis Khan would punish his disloyalty by
execution.
 Influenced a number of 20th century military thinkers such as Liddell Hart, acknowledged this explicitly, and the
Nazis' use of blitzkrieg was in many respects an adaptation of Mongol strategy.
The Second Wave Civilization is industrial (Modern Warfare)
The society during the Industrial Revolution (ca. late 17th
century through the mid-20th century).
The main components of the Second Wave society are nuclear
family, factory-type education system, and the corporation.
“The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass
production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education,
mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of
mass destruction”.
Combine all these with standardization, centralization,
concentration, and synchronization, there we have what we call
bureaucracy, which serve as a very important element of
warfare.”
Toffler, War and Anti-War
What is Modern Warfare [Second Waves]
It is the forms of warfare shaped by and reflecting the “modern”
era of human history------- “the prevailing form of war always
reflects the era in which it occurs” [Clausewitz]

“Modern Warfare” developed in terms of number of broad

themes which characterised the society:
a. Growing power of the state through centralization, bureaucratization,
and to certain extent, democratization
b. The rise of powerful ideologies such as nationalism
c. Rapid technological development and industrialisation
d. Rapid rise of population
e. Rise of insistence for citizen to defend state as a “duty”
What is Modern Warfare [Second Waves]
These forces took form during the course of 19th – early 20th
Century in terms of military revolution focused on :
o Mass conscription of armies of ideologically motivated citizens
o Armed with mass produced, long ranged weapons of incredible killing
power
o Logistically sustained by industrialised economy that could maintain
armies on distant front

What about the objective of warfare?

o The absolute defeat of the enemy was the objective
o The entire population of the opposing states became potential target
The Second Wave Civilization is industrial (Modern Warfare)
1.1337-1457 (The Hundred Years War) - The beginning of national identity and loyalty
to the nation-state - religious war in Europe

2.1618-48 (the Thirty Years War) - permanent rank and military organization
reappeared since Rome, loyalty to the Monarch. Before, no permanent armies, but hired
on purpose except in Islamic middle ages armies.

3.1800: Napoleonic wars and the arrival of mass armies on the battlefield

4.1870-1918: Wars of industrial societies characterised by mass armies and massive fire
power

5.1918-1945: Mechanised manoeuvre warfare

6.1945-1990: Insurgencies/guerilla wars.

Source: Hammes, T.X. “Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges”, Military Review, May-June 2007
 The Third Wave (Information Warfare - IW).
 1990: War has ceased to be a predominantly physical battle
supported by Information Warfare - IW
 But, it has transformed into a strategic communication campaign
where physical battle is a tool for sending messages and breaking the
will of enemy’s government.
 2001: War has become an activity of networks, supranational groups
in pursuit of their objectives. It is increasingly becoming unlimited.
 Nation-states will no longer have the sole monopoly on force.
 New, sophisticated technology will be used.
 The threat of bio-terrorism.
 Information will be very important, both in war, and in preventing war.
The use of psychological methods in war. I.e: (Network Centric
Warfare) / C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers,
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance)

Toffler, War and Anti-War

 The Third Wave (Information Warfare).
According to Toffler,
 Knowledge, not violence nor money, is the essence of power in
the information age
 “Info-Wars” raging in such arenas as computers, high-definition
TV, electronic networks, and industrial espionage, and the fight
for control of customer data by retailers, manufacturers, banks and
credit-card issuers.
 Aided by the widespread use of computers and other
communications technologies, this "powershift, will dramatically
alter the world's political balance.
 The superpowers will no longer dominate [i.e during Cold War],
since massive military power and control of natural resources will
diminish in importance.
1. Rational choice to maximise gain. i.e. Age of Colonialism?
2. Human Level = Nurture VS Nature
• hereditary VS environment
3. Frustration / Aggression explanation of war
• Aggression as a result of frustration / hatred
4. Misperception explanation of war
• War as a result of misjudgement
5. Conscious/Unconscious motives for war
6. Group explanation of war
• Allegiance to one group lead to war
• Fascist VS Democracy
7. Competition lead to war?
(Conscious and unconscious motives for war)

Germany in WW2
Terms of the Treaty of Versailles
o 70,000 sq km of land was taken away from Germany
o No overseas colonies
o Germany’s army was reduced to 100,000 men
o She was not allowed an air force
o She was allowed only 6 battleships and no submarines
o Allied troops to occupy the Rhineland at all times
o Germany had to accept full responsibility for starting the war.
o Germany had to pay £6,600 million in reparations

Goals may be conscious or unconscious, and they are influenced by values, beliefs, and
emotional states. (Implication: they are culturally variable.) Goals influence action, but looking at
the action does not, in itself, show you the goals.
(Misperception and WAR)
War in Iraq
Before war, overwhelming majorities believed that Iraq had
WMD

Japan and WW2

The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise military strike
conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United
States naval base. Japan perceived that it will prevent the United
States from joining war on behalf of the Allies
 ASSUMPTION: States and other competitive entities have interests that they will
pursue to the best of their abilities.
 Interests are desired end states such as
survival, economic well-being, and enduring
national values (OBJECTIVES).
 The national elements of power are the
resources used to promote or advance
national interests (RESOURCES). Strategy
is the pursuit, protection, or advancement of
these interests through the application of the
instruments of power. The Lykke Model
 Strategy is fundamentally a choice; that reflects a preference for a future state or
condition which remain beyond control or unforeseen (RISK).
 STRATEGY is all about how(way or concept) leadership will use the power(means
or resources) available to the state to exercise control over sets of circumstances and
geographic locations to achieve objectives(ends) that support state interests.
 Strategy at state level is referred to…. the
comprehensive direction of power to control
situations and areas in order to attain objectives
(Henry Eccles)
 In Liddell Hart word,“…the coordination and
direction of ‘all the resources of a nation or a
band of nations, towards the attainment of the
political objectives’
 Cont…

1. OFFENSIVE STRATEGY - involve taking the battle to the

adversary, with a view to destroying the enemy’s fighting
capability or compelling the enemy to retreat or surrender
2. DEFENSIVE STRATEGY - involve blocking the adversary’s
attack and denying the enemy its objectives,
3. DETERRENT STRATEGY - attempt to raise the cost of the
adversary of continuing the battle, seeking to convince the enemy
to abandon its aggressive intentions.

 Offensive and defensive strategies [to wearing down the enemy’s

military capability, whereas deterrent strategies focus on wearing down
the enemy’s will.
 In any given campaign, military commanders may well use a mix of
these strategies to attain their objectives effectively.
20
Germany WW1 The Schlieffen Plan
(Simultaneous attacking strategy)
 LEVELS OF WAR AND The Gulf War (2 August 1990 – 28 February 1991),
codenamed Operation Desert Storm
Level of War Coalition example missions CoG
Strategic Level
National Policy Restore the legitimate Saddam Hussein
Government of Kuwait

Theater Strategy Defeat the Iraqi Army Iraqi Army

south of Euphrates
Operational Level
Campaign Isolate and encircle the Republican Guard
Iraqi Army in Kuwait.

Major Operations Cut communications from Iraqi integrated air

Baghdad to Kuwait. defence system
Tactical Level (actual)
• Battles Penetrate the Iraqi defences Iraqi 12th Corps
• Engagements along the Saudi border
• Small unit actions
 NATURAL DETERMINANTS OF POWER as the chess pieces in the
strategic game… but, it is interrelated, dynamic and situational.

a) Natural resources.
resources A relative stable factor that exerts an important
influence upon power of a nation. [Food & Oil] = Middle East, USA
b) Population & availability.
availability Demographics in the form of size, trends,
and structure are an important aspect of national power. China (1.3b),
India (1.2b), US (313m)
• National Character [Germany & Japanese; Russian; American]
c) Geography.
Geography Geographical factors, whether they are location and climate
or size and topography, influence a nation’s outlook and capacity. [US,
China, Russia]
SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF POWER
d) Military Preparedness. [Technology, Leadership & Quantity and
Quality]. Military strength is historically the gauge for national power.
Examples [US, Rus, China, India, UK, France, Germany]
e) Economics. Economic capacity and development are key links to both
natural and social determinants of power. [Def Spend in 2011 - US
(689b), China (129b), Russia (64b), S’pore, Brunei]--- US 2015 (589b)
f) Diplomacy… is the brain of national power, as national morale is it soul
[USA, Singapore, Thailand, Swiss]. Example of diplomacy in political
affiliation [Alliance, cooperation] NATO, UN, SCO (5+1=CRK2TU).
g) Politics [Governance & Quality) – Morgenthau (Politics Among Nations)
h) Information. Information dominance can create operational synergies by
allowing those systems that provide battlespace awareness, enhance
command and control, and create precision force to be integrated
 (1) ARMY
(2) AIR FORCES
(3) NAVAL FORCES (NAVY)

ARMY AIR FORCES NAVAL FORCES

a. Infantry a. Air mobility (NAVY)
b. Cavalry/Armour b. Air superiority -CAP a. Surface
c. Artillery c. Strategic bombing b. Under water
d. Engineers d. CAIRS – close air
e. Signals c. Naval air power
support
f. Other components
What is ?
Principles of war represent the most important nonphysical
factors that affect the conduct of operations at the strategic,
operational, and tactical levels.

Leaders have long sought the most effective ways to conduct

war. From the ancient Chinese and Greek tacticians onward to
the French, British, Germans, and Americans of more modern
times, military leaders have sought to distill the lessons they have
learned into a set of key principles of war.

The Army incorporated the principles of war into its officer

training, and they became a mainstay in Army field manuals.
1. Selection and Maintenance of The Aim [Clarity]
• A single, unambiguous aim is the keystone of successful military
operations.
• Unity of command and simplicity of plan
• When Eisenhower established NASA – everybody knew the target to
reach the moon, from a janitor to a scientist

2. Maintenance of Morale
• War with high morale justification – important to get support
from nations
• How to maintain Morale ? (a) Ensure soldiers psychological needs
are being addressed. (b)Training: Ensure soldiers are trained
appropriately for their tasks. (c) Leadership: Ensure soldiers are
aware of goals of the war.

• Example : Just War ; Holy War (JIHAD); Defending Sovereignty;

 When General Dwight D. Eisenhower was sent by General
George C. Marshall to take command of the allied forces in
London in World War II, his orders and his objective were
clear:

“Proceed to London. Invade

Europe. Defeat the Germans.”
3. Offensive Action
• Offensive action is the practical way in which a commander
seeks to gain advantage, sustain momentum and seize the
initiative.
• Characteristic: Aggressive ; Quick ; Proactive
• Example : Blitzkrieg (WW2) - rapid movement, quick victory
(1939-1941);

4. Security
• Security is the provision and maintenance of an operating
environment that affords the necessary freedom of action,
when and where required, to achieve objectives.
• Avoid exploitation/being attack by surprise
• Physical and information security
5. Administrative /Logistic
• Restoring reserves and combat capability
is of paramount concern today
• Ensure physical well-being of soldiers,
weapons, transport.
• ratio  1 (force): 3 (admin)
• Coordination of all units/components
• RMA – integrate IT in military affairs
6. Initiative:
 Ensure forces are able to obtain a concentration of force before the
enemy.
o Offense: Attack to obtain the initiative: necessary for victory.
o Maneuver: Seek geographic advantage over the opponent.
o Mobility: Geographic flexibility.
o Flexibility: Be ready to adjust to the enemy.
o Readiness: Safeguard against surprise.
o Exploitation: Exploit enemy weakness.
o Reserves: Ensure reserve forces are always available.

IFF- ‘Identification of Friends and Foe’

Example:
Battle of Dien Bien Phu (1954) [Vietcong vs France armies]
7. Flexibility
• The ability to change readily to meet new circumstances –
comprises agility, responsiveness, resilience, acuity and
adaptability
• Planning based on event that occurs throughout the crisis;
flexible and open to change
 US in Iraq – changed 20 times by Donald & Tommy Frank
 Massive Retaliation (Eisenhower) to Kennedy (Flexible
Response)
• New information about Enemy => new plan
• PROACTIVE
8. Surprise
• Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner
for which he is unprepared
• Frequently used in battlefield
• Deploy more rapidly than the opponent’s ability to adjust.
i.e : Tet Offensive (1968); Pearl Harbour (Dec 7, 1941);
Terror attack.
9. Foresight = Reality
• Being able to see the whole picture of an attack
• Situation after attack = soc/econ/ infrastructure  i.e :
US in Iraq
10. Economy of Force
• Employ all combat power available in the most effective way possible
and maximize the use of scarce resources
 National objectives will always exceed the resources available
 Economy [many] is not equal with efficiency
 Economy is concerned with effectiveness
• Don’t apply more force than necessary or too little force.
• make the best use of the few means at our disposal (Clausewitz)

• Find a balance to maximize advantage opposite the enemy

 During the Cold War, US spent more than 300 billion per year to keep
them ahead of Soviet Union; 2011 (689b), while 2nd place China spent
only 144b.
 Strategy is not fix and always change
 Strategy and technology
o RMA/IT/GPRS/satellite
o Main battle tank – prior to the development of attacking
helicopter was a queen in battlefield – but not anymore since
the development of attacking helicopter took place. i.e in Iraq.
 Principles of war