STRATEGIC

STUDIES
WMD and
Nuclear Deterrence

Dr Shazwanis Shukri
School of International Studies, UUM.
Nuclear Bombs in History

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rElV_w_DPQ
WMD continued…
Definition:
•Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) are weapons
with the capacity to inflict death and destruction on such a
massive scale and have enormous destructive capability
that its very presence in the hands of a hostile power can
be considered a grievous threat.

•Modern WMD are either nuclear, biological, or chemical

weapons—frequently referred to collectively as NBC
weapons [nuclear weapon, chemical warfare, biological
warfare].
WMD continued…
These weapons, if used, have the ability to annihilate;
•whole cities and wipe out entire populations.
•non-military targets are not exempt from the horrors of
these weapons.
•The most vulnerable sectors of a population, i.e. civilians
and non-combatants , are always the most affected by
WMD attacks.
• In August 1945, during the final stage of the WW2, the USA dropped
atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The two
bombings, which killed at least 129,000 people, remain the only use of
nuclear weapons for warfare in human history.
WMD continued…
• According to chemical weapons expert, only nuclear
weapons true weapons of mass destruction, because
"only nuclear weapons are completely indiscriminate by
their explosive power, heat radiation and radioactivity,
and only they should therefore be called a weapon of
mass destruction".
WMD continued… in Hiroshima & Nagasaki

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETbI0Ih0kVg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Pxk4zy_SQw
 Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
(1)Biological and
(2) Chemical Weapon
 Biological warfare (BW) — also known as germ
warfare — is the use of biological toxins or infectious
agents such as bacteria, viruses, and fungi with intent to
kill or incapacitate humans, animals or plants as an act of
war.

 Chemical Weapons are defined as toxic chemicals and

their precursors, munitions and devices, and any
equipment specifically designed for use directly in
connection with such weapons.
 Biological Weapon
in History
Year / Parties AGENT

Medieval Europe The use of infected animal carcasses

Mongols, Turks and

Infecting enemy water supplies
other groups
Black Death because of plague (dead body of Mongol warrior were thrown over the
Europe (1346)
walls of the besieged Crimean city
Russian forces attacked the Swedes by flinging plague-infected corpses over the city
Russia (1710)
walls of Reval
British The British army at least once attempted to use smallpox as a weapon, when they gave
1763-66 contaminated blankets during Pontiac's War (1763–66)

Biological sabotage—in the form of anthrax —was undertaken on behalf of the Imperial
Germany 1914-18
German government during World War I (1914–1918)
Sino-Japanese War Japanese Army conducted human experimentation on thousands of Chinese soldiers
(1937–1945) and civilians
In response to suspected BW development in Nazi Germany, the U.S., U.K., and
U.S., U.K., & Canada
Canada initiated a BW development program in 1941 that resulted in the weaponisation
(1941)
of anthrax, brucellosis, and botulism toxin
WMD Type (Biological Warfare)

Biological agents have been used as weapons of war can be found in both the written
records and the artwork of many early civilizations
300 BC the Greeks polluted the wells and drinking water supplies of their enemies with
the corpses of animals.
In 1863 during the US Civil War, General Johnson used the bodies of sheep and pigs to
pollute drinking water at Vicksburg.
In 1763 the history of biological warfare took a significant turn from the crude use of
diseased corpses to the introduction of specific decease, smallpox ("Black Death"), as a
weapon in the North American Indian Wars. This technique continued with cholera or
typhus infected corpses.
In 1915, during World War I, Germany was accused of using cholera in Italy and plague
in St. Petersburg.
There is evidence Germany used glanders and anthrax to infect horses (1914) and
cattle, respectively, in Bucharest in 1916,

Source: A SIPRI Monograph

WMD Type (Biological Warfare)
Biological agents have been used as weapons of war can
be found in both the written records and the artwork of
many early civilizations
US tested a Soviet-designed germ bomb and assembled a
germ factory in the Nevada desert from commercially
available materials, in particular to produce potentially more
potent variant of the bacterium that causes anthrax, a
deadly disease ideal for germ warfare

Source: A SIPRI Monograph

Chemical Weapon
Chemical warfare technology timeline

Year Agents Dissemination Detection

Chlorine
Chloropicrin
1914 Wind dispersal Smell
Phosgene
Mustard gas
1918 Lewisite Chemical shells smell of geraniums

1920s Projectiles w/ central bursters

Blister agent detectors
1930s G-series nerve agents Aircraft bombs
Color change paper

Missile warheads
1940s
Spray tanks

1950s
1960s V-series nerve agents Aerodynamic Nerve gas alarm
1970s
1980s Binary munitions Laser detection
1990s Novichok nerve agents
WMD Type (Chemical Weapon)
Example:
1. German gas attack with chlorine on 22nd April 1915 at Ypres, Belgium. The
use of these toxic chemicals, including phosgene, sulfur mustard and
lewisites caused 100,000 deaths and 1.2 million casualties in World War I
2. Millions of innocent civilians were killed by the Nazis with Zyklon B gas
(hydrogen cyanide gas) during World War II.
3. Agent Orange – a heavy doses of herbicides (defoliant) and lachrymatory
agents – was used by the USA during the Vietnam War. During the
Vietnam War (1961-1973)
4. The only major use of CW since WWII occurred during the Iran–Iraq War in
the 1980s. The largest single CW attack killing around 5,000 people
followed an Iraqi nerve agent attack on the Kurdish civilian population of
Halabja [Mustard]
5. Recent cases: Israel's recent use of white phosphorus bombs in densely
populated areas of Gaza (2009); accused attack using Sarin gas in Syria
from both side

Source: K. Ganesan, S. K. Raza, & R. Vijayaraghavan (2010)

(3) Nuclear Strategy and
Nuclear Deterrence
Nuclear strategy details how many nuclear
weapons to deploy, what type of delivery
systems to put them on, and what kind of
policies to adopt regarding the
circumstances in which they would be
used.
Nuclear Strategy: Nuclear Deterrence
 Definition of Deterrence Strategy

 What are preconditions for successful

deterrence strategy?

 How it works?

 Types of Nuclear Doctrine

What is Deterrence Strategy ?
“ attempt by one power to influence the decision
making of another by threat of the use of force”

 US VS Soviet Union (Cold War)

 Pakistan VS India (1988)
 North Korea continuous nuclear test

Reason: to prevent unwanted action by an

opponent by convincing them that the resultant
costs would exceed any gains
Measures : Direct and Indirect
Deterrence : in a simple notion

“Do not attack me because if you

do, something unacceptable will
happen to you !!! ”
Preconditions of Successful
Deterrence
1. A deterrent force must be capable to inflict
unacceptable damage
2. The threatening nation must have the plans and the
readiness necessary to demonstrate that it can deliver
on its "message”.
3. Successfully communicate to the opponent the price it
will have to pay for attempting to achieve an
unacceptable objective.
4. Most important, the deterrent message must have
some degree of credibility.
How can one prove that deterrence works?
 According to Brodie (1959),
A credible nuclear deterrent, must be always at
the ready, yet never used

 Its effects are almost invisible.

 Deterrence is assumed to be successful
when it prevents policies and actions.
 How It works?

How Should What Types

Nuclear Nuclear Deterrence Of
Weapons Be Weapons Are
Used? Best?

How Many Nukes Does A

State Need To Be Safe?
 Types of Delivery Systems
1. Long Range Nuclear Armed Bombers :
B29, B117, F35 Stealth Fighter (2013)

2. Cruise Missiles – usually carried by pilot less aircraft.

AGM-86 Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) • AGM-129 Advanced
Cruise Missile (ACM)

3. Ballistic Missile Submarines (SLBM)

SSBN Ohio Class • Trident (Underwater Long-range Missile System

4. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

(ICBMs)
LGM-30F • Minuteman II • Minuteman III • Taepodong

5. MIRV – (Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry

Vehicle)
W-62 MIRVed Warhead • W-78 MIRVed Warhead • Peacekeeper (MX)
ICBM
Deterrence Strategy:
Type of Nuclear Doctrine
1) Nuclear First Use :
Planning for a pre-emptive nuclear strike in the event that
nuclear war seemed inevitable, or preventive nuclear war
in order to destroy an adversary's incipient (existence) or
developing nuclear weapons capability.

2) Nuclear Non First Use (NFU):

nuclear weapons have been used to offset the
conventional forces of an adversary at an affordable
social and economic cost, and to serve as a weapon of
last resort in the face of catastrophic defeat.
 Deterrence Strategy:
Type of Nuclear Doctrine by States
NO STATES Nuclear First Use Nuclear No First Use

1 NATO 
2 US 
3 RUSSIA 
4 Pakistan 
5 UK 
6 China 
7 India 
8 North Korea 
9 Israel Strategy “Samson Option” or Nuclear Massive Retaliation
as Last Resort in the even of Israel substantially damaged
Development of nuclear deterrence
The Advent of Nuclear Weapon
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Nuclear History
 The nuclear arms race:
Manhattan Project, 1942.

 US dominance 1945 -49.

After Hiroshima Nagasaki - US dominance leading the nuclear
arms race until Soviet developed it’s first nuclear bomb in 1949.
 Soviet Union’s
1949 - development of 1st nuclear bomb in 1949
1957 - first country to put the first satellite Sputnik into orbit, thus
signalling capability of developing missiles carrying nuclear
warhead across the intercontinental distance.
 Massive Retaliation (Eisenhower 1954)
Nuclear History
1961 – 1967 (Flexible Response)
 development of concept of arms control agreement between
US & Soviet.
 Attack only military installation (known as counterforce
theory)
 Protection of nuclear missiles & silos were constructed.

1967 – 1974 (MAD  Détente Nixon 1972 )

 development (MIRV)
 to counter MIRV – both sides developed Anti Ballistic
Missiles (ABM) Systems
1977 - Twin Track (negotiation &deployment of new weapons).
Mutually Assured Destruction
1. First Strike VS. Secure Second Strike
2. MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction

RETALIATION

1ST STRIKE

United Soviet
States Union
Nuclear Development During Cold
War
1974 - 1981
 Following development of ABM Systems, Soviet Union
developed most powerful and transportable Intermediate
Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) known as SS-20
 Western Europe develop IRBM
 US developed large MX missiles with multiple warhead and
stealth bombers.

1981 - 1985
 increase and update the fleets of SLBM & development of
B52 and B-1 bombers with nuclear cruise missiles.
 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) took place (Reagan era)
Nuclear Development During
Cold War
 1985 - 1991
Gorbachev rise to power (1985)
Policy of Perestroika and Glasnost
1991: US and USSR sign the Strategic
Arms Reductions Treaty (START-I), which
leads to the reduction of the two sides’
strategic arsenals by 30-40%. The Treaty
expires in December 2009.
Nuclear Development During Cold
War
 In general, the Cold War scenario of
nuclear doctrine was based on “threat
base” strategy
Post Cold War Nuclear Strategy
 US strategy in Post Cold War :-
 Bush (2000 – now) :-
The nuclear deterrent of Mutually Assured
Destruction is replaced by the full-spectrum deterrent
of unilaterally assured destruction.
 How it works ?
 Changed The Cold War Triad to New Triad of nuclear
and non-nuclear offensive strike forces, missile
defense systems, and a responsive defense
infrastructure.

(Classified Document : Nuclear Posture Review – Bush 2001)

US Nuclear Strategy
US Post Cold War nuclear threat and target :
 China, Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya, and
Syria; in an Arab-Israeli conflict; in a war between
China and Taiwan; and in an attack by North Korea on
South Korea.
 The use of nuclear weapons in three types of
situations: (i) against targets able to withstand non-
nuclear attack; (ii) in retaliation for attack with nuclear,
biological, or chemical weapons; and, (iii) in the event
of surprising military development.

(Classified Document : Nuclear Posture Review – Bush 2001)

Obama nuclear strategy 2010
(Nuclear Posture Review in 2010)
US Nuclear Strategy (2013)
 In its Nuclear Posture Review in 2010, the US undertook to do
reduce the role and numbers of its nuclear weapons, in part by not
developing new nuclear warheads, and pledging it would not
"support new military missions or provide for new military
capabilities".

 According to newly published budget figures, the US will spend

about $10bn (£6.5bn) on a life extension programme for the B61
bombs, and another $1bn on adding controllable tail fins.
Kristensen said the tail kit would give the B61 new capabilities,
once some of the upgraded weapons were deployed as scheduled
in Europe in 2019 or 2020.

Source: Sunday 21 April 2013

 Deterrence Strategy:
Type of Nuclear Doctrine by States
NO STATES Nuclear First Use Nuclear No First Use

1 NATO 
2 US 
3 RUSSIA 
4 Pakistan 
5 UK 
6 China 
7 India 
8 North Korea 
9 Israel Strategy “Samson Option” or Nuclear Massive Retaliation
as Last Resort in the even of Israel substantially damaged
US & Russian Nuclear Weapon
Nuclear weapons stockpiles
1960: The biggest nuclear bomb ever built: “Tsar-bomba”, “Big Ivan”, “Kooz’ka’s Mother”
(from old Russian proverb, much liked by Khrushchev: “We’ll show you Kooz’ka’s mother!”
October 1961: The world’s biggest H-bomb tested at Novaya Zemlya Island, the
Arctic, explosive power – 57 mt
Chinese Nuclear Sites
Iran Nuclear Sites
Indian Nuclear Sites
Israel Nuclear Sites
Post Cold War Nuclear Forces

 Reductions
 US & Russia - through SALT, START & INF agreements
 Smaller nuclear powers (France & UK) commit tounilateral
reduction
 China?

 Force Improvements
 Smaller but more modern
 Newest weapons retained
‘New’ nuclear states & Proliferation

 Pakistan
 24-48 warheads - free fall and missile based
 Developing missile technology, mostly short range
 India
 34-45 warheads - free fall and missile based
 Developing longer range missiles and sea based capability
 Israel
 Possibly as many as 200 warheads
 free-fall and missile based - longer range missiles too
 Submarine based capability?
 China
Nuclear Arms Control

3 main reasons :
1. Each of the two superpower provide security guarantee to
its allies
2. Interest of superpowers to control proliferation (only
vertical proliferation among themselves)
3. The role of NPT (1968)
Why No Proliferation During Cold War?

3 main reasons :
1. Each of the two superpower provide security guarantee to
its allies
2. Interest of superpowers to control proliferation (only
vertical proliferation among themselves)
3. The role of NPT (1968)
Nuclear Arms Control - 1
 1946 Baruch plan - UN control

 1963 Test Ban Treaty (Atmospheric)

 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

 Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT 1)

Nuclear Arms Control - 2
 Great progress since mid-1980’s

 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces

(INF)
 1991 START 1 Treaty - 6,000 warheads

 1993 START 2 Treaty - 3,500 warheads

 2002 SORT Treaty - 1700-2200 warheads by 31 st Dec 2012

 British & French announced reductions in their nuclear

forces
Nuclear Arms Control And Disarmament
1. IS ARMS CONTROL ALWAYS A GOOD THING?
CRISIS STABILITY AND ARMS REDUCTIONS
DEPENDS ON THE TYPE OF SYSTEM REDUCED

2. WOULD DISARMAMENT BE SUCCESSFUL ?

A) No nuclear power are ready to dismantle, for the reason DETERRENCE ONLY
WORKS with nuclear weapon
B) Anarchic international system with no complete trust
C) Problems with weak enforcement power
Case Study : India Vs Pakistan
Differences in Doctrine :

 India : No First Use & “no use against non-

nuclear-weapon states”

 Pakistan : Nuclear First Use @ First Strike

India VS Pakistan Nuclear Forces
Case Study : North Korea
 North Korea’s Nuclear Weapon
Capabilities in East Asian and
Implications
 direct threat to who? And why?
 NK nuclear deterrence: is it successful ?
 Nuclear armed races?

Recent cases of NK & SK diplomacy

North Korea missiles and nuclear facilities

Source :Economist
Case Study : IRAN Nuclear Deal
 The implication of Iranian nuclear
weapons development?
1. Threat to who? And why?
2. Power symmetry in the Middle East?
3. Encouraging more arms races?

- Iran Nuclear Deal [youtube]

- Recent exposure by Israel ?
Iran and North Korea
 Strategic Implications of Nuclear Weapons
• Bernard Brodie: The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and
World Order (1946)
• The most basic implication:
– destructive power on an unprecedented scale was now possible, and
– it could be inflicted almost instantaneously.
• The second implication: combined with strategic delivery
vehicles (long-range bombers and missiles),
– destruction could be visited on an adversary at a distance, and
therefore
– without first defeating that opponent militarily.
• The third implication: if more than two nations possess
nuclear weapons,
– mutual destruction is possible.
• The fourth implication: nuclear weapons
– cannot defend, but
– can support deterrent (and possibly compellent) threats.
Conclusion
 Credibility is key to successful deterrence
 Deterrence also relied on rationality of decision
makers VS “rouge state with nuclear weapon”,
“loose nukes” and “terrorism”
 To be deterred you have to want to be deterred
 Missile defence – as one potential response to
some of the problem of mutual deterrence