Afghanistan-Pakistan From The

Afgan Jihad to the 9/11 Attacks.

 Resource Refernce
• Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism,
and Resistance to Modernity 1st Edition by Riaz
Muhammad Khan
• Charlie Wilson’s War – George Crile
• Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia by Ahmed
Rashid
History and Introduction of Afghanistan
• Afghanistan: The School of militancy & Jihad.

• Afghanistan: Poppy Capital of the World.

• Afghanistan: The most bombed, crushed, corrupted, and mined nation of the
globe.

• Afghanistan: The most isolated & barren landscape on earth.

• An unlikely target of some of empires and superpowers.

• Has the history of resistance to foreign occupation and continue to enjoy

the status of “Graveyard of Empires.”

• Has always been the part of all ‘great games’.

 From Modrenity to orthodoxy
• Domestically, it has passed through the contests between the
forces of modernity and orthodoxy,

• From King Amanullah’s attempts to modernize Afghan society

in 1920s,

• To Republic of Dawood in 1973,

• To Communism of Tarakai and Hafiz Amin,

• To theocracy under Taliban rule in 1990s.

 Historical events in the Afghan Quagmire
• No other country has ever faced more blows than that of Afghanistan.

• Faced wrath of Alexander, and Babur in 1504, who took the control of Kabul -
entered into subcontinent and established Mughal Dynasty.

• Modern Afghanistan won its independence on August 19, 1919 under King
Amanullah Khan.
• Under King Zahir Shah (1933-1973), Afghanistan was politically stable and
prosperous.
• 1973 coup of Sardar Dawood.
• April 27, 1978 Communist coup, known Saur Revolution against Dawood, by
Tarakai.
• Tarakai was ousted by Hafiz-ul-Amin in Sep, 14, 1979.
• Amin was ousted by Soviets in Dec 27, 1979.
• Communists introduced failed land reforms.
• Soviet invasion December, 1979 – Brzezinski – stinger.

• Geneva accords April 1988 – USSR troops’ withdrawal –

Najeeb govt.
• Najeeb stepped down - March 17, 1992 and handed Kabul
over to Mujahedeen under Ahmed Shah Masood.

• Infighting among Mujahedeen led to the emergence of

Taliban 1994 – who regarded Rabbani govt. as anti Pashtoon
and corrupt.
 Pak-Afghan Troublesome Relation
• Durand Line Issue: Durand Agreement , November 12, 1893. Each party
pledged,
“not to exercise interference in the territories lying beyond this line”.
• Tribals Resented the agreement which became an issue.
• Afghan Claims: Denouncing the Treaty, Unilateral Cancellation of the
Agreement, Expiration of Agreement after Lapse of Hundred Years, Free
Movement across the Durand Line.
• Greater Pakhtunistan
• Pak’s Stance: International Boundary, Durand Accord specified
no time limits, Tribal Allegiance to Pakistan 1946-47
• There are no two states shares as much common fate, culture,
history and geo-political dilemmas as Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
• Historically, relations between two sides have been
combination of optimism and gloom, collaboration to
antagonism since the creation of Pakistan in 1947.
• Afghanistan opposed Pakistan’s entry into UNO.
• Its irredentist claims – Pashtoonistan stunt.
• In 1950s – tumultuous relations – diplomatic relations were
severed.
• In 1960s relations were at ease relatively.

• 1970s premier ZA Bhutto visited Afghanistan that was

reciprocated by Sardar Daoud.

• Afghanistan – in late 1978 descended into chaos –

USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

• Mujahedeen resistance – CIA + ISI (Operation

Cyclone).
 Rise of Taliban
• Therefore, during Civil War (1994-1996) they earned
popular support from the Pashtun masses.

• In Nov. 1994 Taliban took over Qandahar, and in Sep

1995 captured Herat.

• Eventually, Taliban seized the control of Kabul in

September 1996 and ousted the Rabbani
Government.
 The 2 Afghan War after 9/11
nd

• Operation enduring freedom: Operation

Enduring Freedom (OEF) was the official name
used by the U.S. government for the Global
War on Terrorism. On October 7, 2001, in
response to the September 11 attacks.
• 17 years of war in Afghanistan and no peace
and stability in sight.
• US clearly loosing the war as its frequently
changing its polcies
 9/11 and Bonn Process
• After 9/11 and subsequent US invasion ousted Taliban within one month.
• UN invited all major Afghan parties other than Taliban, esp. Northern Alliance to
Bonn, Germany.

• On December 5, 2001, the Afghan participants signed the “Bonn Agreement”.

• UNSC under 1386 resolution, established ISAF to administer security in Afghanistan.

• Interim Government was formed under Hamid Karzai on December 22, 2001.

• After six months, Loya Jirga comprising 1650 elders endorsed Hamid Karzai as the
head of the Transitional Authority.
• In January 2004 Afghan constitution was enacted.

• Hamid Karzai became president after securing 55% votes in 2004 election.
 After 9/11 Taliban outsed
• After 9/11, Pakistan Joined WoT, and Taliban were ousted within one month.

• Now, emergence of TTP, stability in Afghanistan has become more crucial for
Pakistan.

• Pakistan Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned solution of Afghanistan issue.

• Afghan leadership always accuse Pakistan for playing Taliban card in the
guise of (Afghan-lead-Afghan-owned).
• Corrupt and incompetent Afghan govt. keeps on charging Pakistan.
• Sympathetic policy of Pakistan has been very antagonistically responded by
Afghanistan.
• It has done nothing to address Pakistani grievances about hunting down TTP
leadership in Afghaistan.
• Pakistan gave 500 US$ Mn in aid 3,000 scholarships to Afghanistan.

• Pakistan doesn’t want Taliban’s take over of Afghanistan - will

support TTP and strive for the Pashtoonistan, now under the banner
of jihad.

• Pakistan has never claimed to have ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan

nor does it intend to.
•“We want to have strategic depth in Afghanistan, but that does not
imply controlling it. If we have a peaceful, stable and friendly
Afghanistan, automatically we will have our strategic depth because our
western border will be secure, and we will not be looking at two fronts”.
Gen. Kayani, 2010
Current situation and strategic importance
of Afghanistan
• Geography of Afghanistan and international
game for oil
• As trade route to CARs
• Being neighbor of powers like Russia and
China
• Afghanistan Contains the Silk routes and its a
transit point in Asia
 Shift in Pakistan’s Foreign polciy
• Pakistan becomes frontline state in WOT
• Pakistans policies shift drastically, so India
could not take advantage of the situation.
• Pakistan initiates operations against hardline
terrorists on its own territory.
• Develops mechanisms for peace process and
peace talks.
 Pakistani Concerns
• Today, Pakistan is concerned about the two developments

• First, manoeuvring of the TTP by Afghan intelligentsia;

• Second, collaboration between TTP and Afghan Taliban.

• Both outcomes will be devastative for internal security of
Pakistan;

• Therefore, Pakistan is in favour of a stable Afghanistan with

Taliban mainstreamed as political force.

• This is how TTP can be deprived from Afghan Taliban support.

 Old conflict new bitterness
After Karzai
• Ashraf Ghani approached Pakistan and Murree Process started in July, 2015.

• But, the breaking of news in Aug 2015 about the death of Mullah Omer
sabotaged the Murree process.

• In fact, Karzai, NDS, and India were not happy with growing Pakistani
influence.
• Ghani, was accused for having an appeasement policy towards Pakistan.

• Pakistan believes – Ghani proved weak man to deal with.

• On June 6, 2017, “Kabul Peace Process meeting”, Ghani accused Pakistan for
continuing “undeclared war against Afghanistan”.
• Ironically, Pakistan is viewed as part of the
problem not part of solution in foreign capitals.

• World views Pakistan through the lens of

Afghanistan, militancy, and Its Nuclear weapons.

• Pakistan trying hard for border management

but Afghanistan – not cooperating.
 Pak/USA Haqqani issue
• Old Jihadi veterans – previously supported by Pak/US.

• US and Afghanistan use to accuse Pakistan for their own failures.

• US did not press Pakistan for disassociation because;

1. Taliban are not a direct threat to US security.

2. USA always thrives on crisis.

3. Pakistan is more important to US than Taliban issue in Afghanistan.

4. US pressure did not work in the past as well.

5. States never compromise on national security.

 Major Players Involved in the current
situation
• International Players: USA, Russia and China
• Regional Players: Iran, India and Pakistan
• Domestic Players: Taliban, Afghan govt and ISIS
 India: Aspires for regional hegemony and
wants to access CAR’s
• India views Afghanistan through; Pakistan and CA.
• India does not want Afghanistan be ruled by conservative regime – to
avoid violence spill over into India & Kashmir.

• A stable and democratic Afghanistan will not allow such takeover.

• Wishes to use Afghanistan as “land bridge”, for access to energy rich

CA.
• Gave around US$2 billion of aid to Afghanistan.
• Projecting soft power to the detriment of Pakistan by building,
universities, hospitals, dams and building of the parliament.
• An Indian steel consortium invested US$ 11 Bn in mining.
• It would have not been possible without NATO’s security cover.
• In 2011, signed strategic agreement with
Afghanistan for capacity building of ANSF.

• India is arming ANA and using Afghan soil

against Pakistan.
 Iran: A concerned neighbour
• On strategic fronts, Iran has three strategic objectives;

• First, Tehran neither wants a regime closer to U.S. nor

anti Shia conservative like Taliban/ISIS.

• Second; Iran supports an Afghan govt. with

representation of Shi’ite Hazaras and Tajiks.

• Third; protection of investments and personnel in

Western Afghanistan.
China: New Players an ambitious power
• China’s policies have been very careful – and Muslim Xinjiang centric.

• China is also committed to stabilize Afghanistan.

• After US withdrawal instable Afghanistan will be a threat to Chinese Belt Road Initiative
(OBOR).

• Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned peace process to keep India out of Afghanistan

• China is part of Quadrilateral Coordination Group.

• China-Afghanistan-Pakistan — foreign minister-level dialogue forum.

• In 2008, a Chinese group acquired Aynak copper deposit worth of US$ 3.5 bn/30 years
That has potential of $ 100 bn.
• “Without Afghan connectivity, there is no way to connect China with the rest of the
world”, Yao J
 Russia: An Afghan Victim
• Afghanistan is observed by Russia through the
lenses of security threats to Russia and CARs.

• First, Russia worries - Islamic extremism will

energize militant movements in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan.

• Secondly, drug & human trafficking from

Afghanistan to CA and Russia.
 USA/NATO: Tired and fatigued but still
there
• USA invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 – in pursuit of Al-Qaeda and their Taliban affiliates.

• USA toppled Taliban – established Bone Process and resultant Karzai government.

• They failed in democratization of Afghanistan – they now have assumed the role ‘train’, ‘advice’, and
‘assist’.
• Intra-Afghan Dialogue, “Help Afghan Talk to Afghans”.

• US/NATO now insist to stay in Afghanistan by keeping 12,000 (9800 US) troops for coming years.

• Trump has announced another 8,000 US/Nato troops surge.

• USA by living in Afghanistan intends to keep an eye on nuclear ambitious Iran, put pressure on China
and resurgent Russia, Nuclear Pakistan, and ensure smooth energy flow through Persian Gulf.
• US is losing the war in Afghanistan.

• But, many views resurgence of Taliban and the advent of ISIS is “Constructed Chaos” to justify
American presence in Afghanistan.
 The new geo-political equation in
Afghanistan
• Russia, Iran , China and Pakistan = Supporting
Taliban.
• India, Israel and USA= Supporting ISIS.
• Class Debate, Emergence of ISIS is a blessing in
disguise for Taliban?
 Impacts on Pakistan
• Socio-political impacts: Pakistan being a front line state affected very
severely. Pakistan is a poor country which was not in a position to face
such huge bulk of refuges which came to Pakistan due to war. About 3
million people came to Pakistan which is a great challenge for the poor
country having fragile economy. The daily cost of the Afghan refugees is $1
million in which half is donated by UN and the remaining half comes from
Pakistan. It is raises the debt burden on Pakistan economy.
• It also affects Pakistan’s education, health and infrastructure. When the
Soviets returned and new afghan government formed, very small number
of refugees went back to Afghanistan. After 9/11 U.S invasion of
Afghanistan generated afresh inflow of refugees to Pakistan. Due to this
unchecked inflow of refugees militancy has grown in Pakistan. Pakistan is
not in a position to handle such a huge number of refugees and the
international community is not seriously supporting Pakistan.
• Another great impact is that camps of Afghan refugees are becoming
nurseries of terrorists and militants which is a great threat to the security of
Pakistan.
• India using the Afghan soil against Pakistan: The eastern border has
remained insecure due to India war like attitude. She spares no efforts to
harm Pakistan and till to date three wars have been fought between the
two. Now India is involved infiltrating terrorists into Balochistan, KPK and
other parts of the country to destabilize the law and order situation and
posture Pakistan as a failing and terrorist state in the world.
• he Indian intelligence agency RAW is involved in distributing weapon and
financial support to the rebels of BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) and BLF
(Balochistan Liberation Front). She has opened consulates in Jalalabad and
Kandahar near Pakistani border. Where insurgents are trained and
equipped with arms and weaponry to carry out terrorist activities in
Balochistan and KPK
• Cross-border drug trade: Due to instability in Afghanistan drug trade is high
because on large area of Afghanistan puppy is cultivated. The income coming from
heroine trade is used by terrorist because its cultivation is mostly done in terrorist
dwelling areas. According to a report all the region is affected by the drugs and
about 800,000 people in Pakistan alone are abused. About 400,000 in five Central
Asian countries and almost 2 million in Iran are drug addicts.
• Insurgency, the rise of VNSM and Taliban: Pakistan being a front line state decided to
become ally of USA in the war against terrorism. Because of long border consisting
mountains and terrain area between the two states, it was easy for the militant to safely
escape from Afghanistan to FATA. After this many local group started kidnapping, robbing,
looting and even killing innocent people. These developments affected the socio economic
and political arena of day today life. Taliban destroyed schools, hospitals, colleges, cinemas,
robbed banks and centres where people were engaged in their daily businesses. Even they
threatened government servants who were working in different departments. In swat also
called “the Switzerland of Pakistan” tourism the main source of economy was greatly
affected. Tourists were discouraged by the group activities, so the country tourism industry
was damaged.
• Prevailing sate of insecurity: These wild acts of terrorism have challenged
Pakistan’s security, integrity and defense. There is a feeling of insecurity in
the mind of every citizen because men of law enforcement agencies and
VIP personalities have been targeted by them. For example ex-president
Musharraf was attacked, attack was made on ex-PM Shaukat Aziz, and
Suicide attack was made on the leader of ANP a political party. An attack
was made on Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore which closed the doors of
international cricket on Pakistan. Terrorists attacked FC training centre,
Army public school Peshawar, International Islamic University Islamabad,
Manawa police training school and Bacha Khan University Chersada were
attacked by terrorists. Terrorism had greatly affected the education and
health sectors.
• The Violations of State’s Sovereignty by US Drones: Another serious
impact is the violation of sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan by drone
attacks, which are carried out by USA in FATA and Waziristan. These
drones not only killed the terrorists but also innocent people and
children’s. Pakistan raised her voice against it at different forums on
different occasion. Since 2005 till 2016, 320 drone attacks were made in
which 2,806 people killed and 353 injured.
• Rise in Sectarian Violence: Another impact is sectarian violence which
destabilizes Pakistani society very badly. The terrorists are taking great
advantage of Shia and Sunni divide and using it for their own evil gains.
This strife is considered to be the fossil of Afghan Jihad. During Soviet
invasion Pakistan became safe haven for those elements that had to
participate in Afghan Jihad. It was also the beginning of sectarian tussle
between Shia and Sunni and other groups.
• Economic impacts: Peace and stability is the primary concern of every
country. If there is peace and stability then the economy will be ok, more
people, companies, will come and invest there. This will raise the life
standard of the native people and employment opportunities would
increase. Literacy rate will rise and people life standard go up. On the
other hand a country which is facing long term war and instability then
there will be no development and the infrastructure will be destroyed. A
huge bulk of people would migrate to other countries to save their lives.
About 80,000 people have died and thousands injured in the war on
terror. Some $70 billion were lost in this war. The below mentioned table
is taken from a report presented by the (MoF), Ministry of Interior,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Joint Ministerial Group.
• From this report we can conclude that from 14 years war
on terror Pakistan has lost $106.98 billion which is a big
amount for an economy facing instability. Pakistan needed
to extend its resource base, to enhance economic growth
rate. Terrorism has been destroying Pakistan physical and
human capital since 2001. Terrorism destroyed our health,
education, water sanitation, medical care centers and
infrastructure which are basic elements for economic
development. Due to it trade activities becomes limited
and economic growth slowing down. It also restricted the
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
 What should Pak do internally
• The strategic depth policy-a myth
and proved counter productive.
• Afghanistan as a strategic partner
• Minimize Indian influence in Afghanistan using foreign office.
• Stable government in Afghanistan
• Internally crub the terrorist factions and leave the polciy of
good or bad taliban. The only good taliban is a dead taliban.
• Border management and fencing.
• Sending back the Afghan refugees or giving them national
identity and bring them under the tax net.
• Protray image of Pakistan as a refugee safe heaven.
Peace Process: Towards sustainable peace

• Opening up the political Space.

• Talks with the Taliban.
• Agenda for Talks.
• Capacity to negotiate.
• Regional Talks.
• International Role in Talks.
• QCG TALKS: Afghan Govt and Taliban facilitator role by
China and Pak, they failed as Talibs were rigid and news of
death of Mullah Omer was propagated.
• Heart of Asia Conference, Joint move by Turkey, Pakistan,
Turkaministan and Afghanistan. It failed due to divide
between regional players. India wanted combat as solution
and Pakistan wanted talks.
• US-India-Afghanistan Trilateral Alliance, This failed as key
regional players were not involved.
• Moscow Conference, Stance maintained for peace talks
but US and India did not participate thus it failed
 What Should Pakistan do Externally?
• Act as a facilitator and provide a framewrok.
Proposed Framework:
1- Internally Generated Incentives;
When stakeholders themselves develop mechanisms – they are more peaceful – DDR
(Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegration)

2 - Security Incentives;
Will not be targeted by others

3- Amnesty Incentives;

4- Political Incentives (Power Sharing)

5- Identity Incentives;
• Dignity, Autonomy
 Conclusion
• Afghanistan is still far from a functioning state despite 15 years long
expensive campaign by international coalition.

• Afghanistan has regional solution – with a power sharing mechanism.

• Any solution imposed by others will be short-lived.

• Taliban must be mainstreamed as political entity.

• Pakistan sensitivities must be dealt in relation to Indian footprints

on Afghan soil.

• China should play a larger role for cherished peace and security.