4th International Conference on Meteorology and Climate Science 2023

9-10 December 2023, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Hydrometeorological Investigation and Predictability of 2022 Sylhet Floods

Dr Sazzad Hossain, BWDB

Dr Mohan Kumar Das, NAOMI
Partho Protim Barua, BWDB
S.M. Quamrul Hassan, BMD
Prof. A K M Saiful Islam, IWFM,BUET

Email:
sazzad176@gmail.com
 Background
“I have never seen such floods in my
30 years service in Sylhet as
BWDB’s river water level gauge
reader” Mr. Shahidul Islam
He also mentioned that senior
citizens of Sylhet had never
experienced such floods before.

• During 15 June to 23 June, a catastrophic floods

hit Sylhet and Sunamganj area of Bangladesh
and the floods known as “Sylhet Flood”
• 80% of the total area inundated of these two
districts
• 50 people died due to floods
• Critical infrastructure such as road, railway
damaged Water level gauge of the
Surma at Sylhet City
( Bandar Area, near
Objective: To understand the key factors Keane Bridge)
(hydrological and Meteorological)and
predictability of the 2022 Sylhet floods
 Study Area and Methods

• North-East region of Bangladesh with stream monitoring

gauge at Sunamganj and Sylhet on the Surma River
• Extensive analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological
data such as analysis of synoptic situation, calculation of
extreme of the event
 Monsoon onset and Progression during the 2022 monsoon

Source: IMD

• The monsoon onset took place by the 3rd June against its normal onset date by 5th June
• The advancement of the monsoon oscillate within the same region before further
progressed towards the Indian state of Bihar and onward
 Vertically integrated moisture flux and winds between 1000 hPa
and (a)850 hPa
(b)
kg m-1 s-1

(a) 03-12 (b) 13-20 June

June
• Strong moisture convergence towards north-east of Bangladesh and
north-east of the Indian region between 03 to 20 June from the bay of
Bengal and Arabian Sea
 Rainfall events
The north –east region of Bangladesh received two heavy rainfall
events : 03 to 12 June and 13 to 20 June
(b)
(a)

(a) Accumulated rainfall (b) Rainfall anomaly

( ERA5 reanalysis)

• Rainfall was concentered to Sylhet and Sunamganj and very near to

Bangladesh Border
• Rainfall during this period was below normal in Meghalaya and northeast
Bangladesh
 Rainfall event during 13 to 20 June
(a)
(b)

(a) Accumulated rainfall between 13-20 June and (b) Rainfall anomaly
(13-20June ) with respect to climatology (climatology is based on
1987 to 2016) (data source: ERA5 reanalysis)

• Extreme rainfall was concentrated to Sylhet and Sunamganj and

Meghalaya hill area
• The region received above normal rainfall
Historical rainfall in Cherrapunjee

(Source: Regional
Meteorological
Centre, Guwahati)

• Cherrapunjee received third highest rainfall in 24 hours on

17 June 2022
Observed rainfall at Cherrapunji ( Meghalaya) and Silchar
(Assam) ( Source: IMD)
Date Meghalaya Assam
Rainfall at Cherrapunji (mm) Rainfall at Silchar (mm)
(lat:25.25 Long: 91.88) (lat: 24.82 Long: 92.80)
12/06/2022 354 0
13/06/2022 293 10
14/06/2022 63 21
15/06/2022 812 23
16/06/2022 674 50
17/06/2022 972 33
18/06/2022 120 103
19/06/2022 253 289
20/06/2022 122 26
21/06/2022 164 13
Total 3827 568

• Extreme rainfall occurred between 15 June to 17 June 2022

in Cherrapunji
• Assam Silchar received heavy to very heavy rainfall between
18 to 19 June 2022
Observed rainfall at Sylhet and Sunamagnaj (Source: BWDB)
Rain gauge Rainfall (24 hr) accumulation (mm)

Sylhet
15 June 41
16 June 45
17 June 77
18 June 144
19 June 315

Sunamganj
15 June 60
16 June 185
17 June 375
18 June 145
19 June 119

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred 17 June to 19 June in

Sylhet and Sunamganj district
 Depth-Duration-Frequency Curve

• 1-10 days duration accumulated rainfall of Sylhet and Sunamganj

• Extreme rain events varies between 10 to 20 years Return period
• Sunamganj rainfall was extreme for shorter duration (5 days) and Sylhet
Rainfall was extreme for longer duration ( 7 days to 10 days)
 Extreme value of Water level using Generalized Extreme Value
(GEV)
(a) Surma at Sylhet (b) Surma at Sunamganj

• Both the gauges exceeded their previous recorded water level

• Estimated Return period is 100 years
 Water level trend
(a) (b)

Sylhet Sunamganj

• Annual maximum water level shows positive trend

Flood Extent mapping using satellite image

• Maximum areas of Sylhet and Sunamganj were inundated

 7 Days accumulated rainfall forecast Date of Forecast 10
June 2022

ECMWF forecast (Global forecast)

WRF model forecast (BMD)
• Numerical weather models predicted heavy rainfall event
• ECMWF little bit underestimated than WRF
 Date of Forecast 15
7 Days accumulated rainfall forecast
June 2022

WRF model forecast (BMD) ECMWF forecast (Global forecast)

• Numerical weather models predicted heavy rainfall event
• ECMWF little bit underestimated than WRF
• BMD issued qualitative heavy rainfall forecast on 15, 17 and 18 June 2022
• Similarly, IMD also issued intense spell of rainfall for the North-eastern Indian
region
 Water level forecast (5days lead time)

Surma at Sylhet

• 13 June forecast was correctly predicted the events

• Other days forecasts were underestimated
 Surma at Sylhet

• Forecasts were underestimated

 Summary
 The floods occurred with the onset of the monsoon over the region.
 Large scale floods could be expected during the peak monsoon time
(usually July and August).
NWP models forecasted heavy rainfall event Meghalaya region and
north-eastern part of Bangladesh before onset of floods.

 These rivers are subjected to flash floods and water levels

forecasts were under-estimated by the hydrodynamic model
 It was a challenge for the forecasters to apprehend the scale of
floods based on the forecasted rainfall.
Other factors (as result shows positive trend in Water level)
than meteorological and hydrological could be important
for the large-scale foods.
Thank you