2010 Commercial Space

Transportation Forecast for Non-

Geosynchronous Orbits
Presentation to COMSTAC
May 19, 2010

Better Decisions…Better Future

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 Contents and Purpose
• Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-
Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)
 Developed by the FAA/AST with help from the Futron Corporation
 Projects global commercial launch demand for 2010-2019
 All nongeosynchronous orbits including
• Low Earth orbit
• Medium Earth orbit
• Elliptical orbits
• External orbits such as to the Moon or other solar system destinations
 Commercial definition:
• Internationally competed launches
• Licensed by the FAA/AST
• Purpose of the NGSO forecast
 To help the FAA/AST plan for its commercial launch licensing and promotional
role
 To raise public awareness of the scope and trajectory of commercial spaceflight
demand

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 Basic Methodology
• This report is based on research and discussions with:
 Industry including:
• Satellite service providers
• Satellite manufacturers
• Launch service providers
 Government offices
 Independent analysts
• The forecast tracks progress for publicly-announced satellites and considers a
number of factors, some examples:
 Financing
 Regulatory developments
 Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts
 Investor confidence
 Competition from space and terrestrial sectors
 Overall economic conditions

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 Commercial NGSO Launch Industry Map

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 Satellite and Launch Demand

Total Satellites: 262 Total Launches: 119

• Demand Drivers
 Large deployments of telecommunications constellations
 A steady demand for launch of international science and other satellites
 The new and promising sector of orbital facility assembly and services
 A small but steady launch demand for commercial remote sensing satellites

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 Historical vs. Forecasted Launches

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 2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts

• Primary changes in market demand:

 Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations.
 Large constellation deployment plans that leverage a greater number of launches than expected
(ORBCOMM); or fewer (Iridium)
 Delay in the initial NASA COTS demonstration flights and the extension of ISS CRS beyond 2016
also contributed to the difference.

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 International Science and Other
Launch History and Forecast

• Characteristics
 Stable scientific demand from national space programs
 Largest source of demand for small launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO)
 Four launches per year average during forecast period

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 Commercial Remote Sensing
Launch History and Forecast

• Characteristics
 Growing demand for commercial remote sensing products
 Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO)
 Demand for under two launches per year average during forecast period

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 Telecommunications
Launch History and Forecast

• Characteristics
 Large deployments of telecommunications constellations
 Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO)
 Majority of demand occurs in the first five years of the forecast, followed by minimal demand
between cycles

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 OFAS Launch History and Forecast

• Characteristics
 NASA Commercial Resupply Services contracts provide a foundation of demand
 Demand for four launches per year average during forecast period
 Successful development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could unlock increased launch
demand in this sector

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 Emerging Markets That Could Impact
Future Demand
• Commercial Human Orbital Spaceflight
 Development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could generate new launch
demand and possibly lead to the deployment of private space stations that require a
large number of human and cargo supply flights.
 Potential demand from NASA, Bigelow, Excalibur, etc.
• Orbital Microsatellite Launch
 The emergence of a low-cost, reliable microsatellite launch vehicle may increase
launch demand as satellite operators would likely move away from multi-
manifesting to dedicated microsatellite launch systems.
• Exploration and Technology Demonstration
 Lunar exploration, science, and development may be spurred by private space
competitions and government use of commercial launch system.

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 Uncertainty
• Fourteen sources of certainty examined, examples:
 Financial uncertainty:
• U.S. national and global economy
• Investor confidence
• Corporate mergers
• Terrestrial competition
 Political Uncertainty:
• Policy and regulations
• Increase/decrease in government purchase of commercial satellite services
• Government missions open/closed to commercial launch competition
 Technical Uncertainty:
• Launch failure
• Satellite manufacturing delay
• Satellite failure in orbit
• Introduction of innovative/disruptive technology

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 End
• Questions?

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 Backup – Launch Demand by Mass Class

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 Backup – Forecast Comparisons

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 Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches
per Forecast

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 Backup - Supporting Data

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