MAN 547

Reverse Engineering in Mechanical Design

Dr. Arafa Soliman

Department of Mechanical Engineering
Product Realization
&
Reverse Engineering
Lecture No. 5

Reliability
 Introduction to Reliability

What is the Reliability?

The ability of a product, part, process, service or
system to perform its intended function under a
prescribed set of conditions.

The ability of an item can be designated through a

probability.
 Introduction to Reliability

Some important terms to use:

• Failure
– Situation in which a product, part, or system does not
perform as intended.
 Introduction to Reliability

Some important terms to use:

• Functional failure
– failure that occurs at the start of product life due to
manufacturing or material defects
 Introduction to Reliability

Some important terms to use:

• Reliability failure
– failure after some period of use

• Inherent reliability – predicted by

product design
• Achieved reliability – observed during
use
 Introduction to Reliability

Some important terms to use:

• Normal operating conditions
– The set of conditions under which an item’s reliability is
specified.
 Introduction to Reliability

Why to do Reliability Calculations?

• Make the product more reliable
– Selling feature
– Reduce returns
– Lower costs
– Enhance or maintain company reputation
– Comparisons with competition
 Introduction to Reliability

Why to do Reliability Calculations?

• Customer request
– Design goal
– Hard Requirement
 Introduction to Reliability

Why to do Reliability Calculations?

• Establishes the presence of a safety margin
– Good engineering practice
– Enhances system life
– Provides input data for Reliability Prediction
• Describes operating condition as a percentage of rating
– Customer requirement
 Introduction to Reliability

Reliability based design

– Learn formulation of reliability design problem.
Understand difference between reliability-based
design and deterministic design
– Learn how to quickly approximate reliability of
component
Deterministic design:
Deterministic design could be described as creativity
based on facts. It greatly reduces risk and redundancy,
thus resulting in simple, high performance, cost-
efficient and reliable machines.
 Introduction to Reliability

Reliability based design

 Reliability Calculation

Reliability Predictions (MTBF)

MTBF is the (Mean Time Between Failures), which also
known as Compute predicted system failure rate.

MTBF related to:

• Failure Rate is usually expressed in Failures per 10 6 or
109 hours
• Example:
• for a system with a predicted MTBF of 1000 hours, on
average the system experiences one failure in 1000 hours of
operation or a Failure Rate of 1000 per 106 hours
 Reliability Calculation

Failure Rate ()

Rate at which failure occur in a specified time
interval

N umber of failures
𝝀=
T otal operating hours
It can be expected in terms of failures per hour, % of
failure per 1,000 hours or failures per million hours.
A failure rate indicates how often a failure occurs per unit time, and failure-rate
values generally change over time
 Reliability Calculation
Reliability measurements:
•Mean Time Between Failures for repairable systems
(MTBF)
•Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) for non-repairable systems
•Reliability Probability (survival) R(t)
•Failure Probability (cumulative density function) F(t)=1-
R(t)
•Failure Rate (hazard rate) λ(t)
 Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)

The MTBF is widely used as the measurement of

equipment's reliability and performance.

This value is often calculated by dividing the total operating

time of the units by the total number of failures encountered.

T otal operating hours 1

𝜽= 𝜽=
N umber of failures λ

This metric is valid only when the data is exponentially distributed. This is a poor assumption
which implies that the failure rate is constant if it is used as the sole measure of equipment's
reliability.
 Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)

The MTBF is widely used as the measurement of Spare

parts and equipment's reliability and performance.

This value is often calculated by dividing the total operating

time of the units by the total number of failures encountered.
1
𝜽 = (𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔 )
λ

−𝝀𝒕
The reliability of (MTBF) is: 𝑹=𝒆
 Reliability Calculation
Example:
The chart below shows operating time and breakdown time of a machine.
20.2 2.5 6.1 7.1 24.4 4.2 35.3 1.8 46.7

Operating time Down time

a) Determine the MTBF.

b) What is the system reliability for a mission time of 20 hours?

 Reliability Calculation
Example:
The chart below shows operating time and breakdown time of a machine.
20.2 2.5 6.1 7.1 24.4 4.2 35.3 1.8 46.7

Operating time Down time

a) the MTBF:
Total operating time = 20.2 + 6.1 + 24.4 + 4.2 + 35.3 + 46.7
= 136.9 hours

 = 4 / 136.9 = 0.02922 per hour

q = MTBF = 1/  = 34.22 hours

 Reliability Calculation
Example:
The chart below shows operating time and breakdown time of a machine.
20.2 2.5 6.1 7.1 24.4 4.2 35.3 1.8 46.7

Operating time Down time

b) the system reliability for a mission time of 20 hours

 = 0.02922 per hour

− 𝝀𝒕
∵ 𝑹=𝒆
− 𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟗𝟐𝟐 ×𝟐𝟎 − 𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟗𝟐𝟐 ×𝟐𝟎
∴ 𝑹=𝒆 ∴ 𝑹=𝒆
∴ 𝑹=𝟎 .𝟓𝟔 ∴ 𝑹=𝟓𝟔%
 System Reliability

The system is a product that is composed of several

components or manufacturing line that is composed of
several processes.

The system can be:

Series : AA BB

AA

Parallel :
BB
 System Reliability
Series System AA BB

• If the components are in series, the system operates if all the

components operate
• If there are n components in series, where the reliability if the i-th
component is denoted by ri , the system reliability is:

Rs  ( r1 )( r2 )( rn )
 System Reliability
Series System

Input A B C Output

All components must operate if the system is to function

properly.
RS = RA x RB x RC

If the series is expected to operate for a specified time

period, then
− 𝝀𝟏 𝒕 − 𝝀𝟐 𝒕 − 𝝀𝟑 𝒕
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆 ×𝒆 ×𝒆
−( 𝝀 ¿ ¿ 𝟏+ 𝝀 𝟐+ 𝝀 𝟑 )𝒕 ¿
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
 System Reliability
AA
Parallel System

BB

• If the components are in parallel, the system operates if any

component operates
• If there are n components in parallel, where the reliability of the i-
th component is denoted by ri , the system reliability is:

R p  1  (1  r1 )(1  r2 )(1  rn )
 System Reliability
A
Parallel System B Output
Input

A number n of the same components must fail in order to

cause total system failure
RS = 1 – [(1 - RA) (1 – RB) (1 - Rn)]
If the series is expected to operate for a specified time
period, then

(
𝑹 𝑺 =𝟏−( 𝟏 −𝒆 −𝝀 𝒕
) (
× 𝟏−𝒆
𝟏 −𝝀 𝒕
) (
× 𝟏 −𝒆 −𝝀 𝒕
𝟐
)) 𝟑
 System Reliability
Example
Systems expected to operate for 1000 hours.
It consists of 4 subsystems in series,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
MTBFC = 10,500 hours, MTBFD = 3200 hours.
• Determine overall reliability.
 System Reliability
Example 1
Systems expected to operate for 1000 hours.
It consists of 4 subsystems in series,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
MTBFC = 10,500 hours, MTBFD = 3200 hours.
• Determine overall reliability.
A = 1 /MTBFA = 1/6000 = 0.000167
B = 1/MTBFB = 1/4500 = 0.000222
C = 1/MTBFC = 1/10500 = 0.000095
D = 1/MTBFD = 1/3200 = 0.000313
−( 𝝀¿ ¿ 𝑨+ 𝝀𝑩 + 𝝀 𝑪 + 𝝀 𝑫)𝒕 ¿
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
 System Reliability
Example 1
Systems expected to operate for 1000 hours.
It consists of 4 subsystems in series,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
MTBFC = 10,500 hours, MTBFD = 3200 hours.
• Determine overall reliability.
A = 1 /MTBFA = 1/6000 = 0.000167
B = 1/MTBFB = 1/4500 = 0.000222
C = 1/MTBFC = 1/10500 = 0.000095
D = 1/MTBFD = 1/3200 = 0.000313
−(𝟎 . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟕𝟗𝟕)𝒕 − ( 𝟎 . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟕𝟗𝟕 ) 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆 𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
 System Reliability
Example 1
Systems expected to operate for 1000 hours.
It consists of 4 subsystems in series,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
MTBFC = 10,500 hours, MTBFD = 3200 hours.
• Determine overall reliability.
A = 1 /MTBFA = 1/6000 = 0.000167
B = 1/MTBFB = 1/4500 = 0.000222
C = 1/MTBFC = 1/10500 = 0.000095
D = 1/MTBFD = 1/3200 = 0.000313
− ( 𝟎 . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟕𝟗𝟕 ) 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆 𝑹 𝑺 =𝟎 .𝟓𝟒=𝟓𝟒 %
 System Reliability
Example 2
Systems expected to operate for 500 hours.
It consists of 2 subsystems can be in series or in parallel,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
• Determine overall reliability for both cases.
 System Reliability
Example 2
Systems expected to operate for 500 hours.
It consists of 2 subsystems can be in series or in parallel,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
• (1) Series
A = 1 /MTBFA = 1/6000 = 0.000167
B = 1/MTBFB = 1/4500 = 0.000222
− ( 𝟎 .𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟕 +𝟎 .𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟐 ) 𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝑹 𝑺 (𝑺) =𝒆

𝑹 𝑺 (𝑺) =𝟎 . 𝟖𝟐=𝟖𝟐 %
 System Reliability
Example 2
Systems expected to operate for 500 hours.
It consists of 2 subsystems can be in series or in parallel,
MTBFA = 6000 hours, MTBFB = 4500 hours,
• (2) Parallel
A = 1 /MTBFA = 1/6000 = 0.000167
B = 1/MTBFB = 1/4500 = 0.000222
(
𝑹 𝑺 ( 𝑺) =𝟏 − ( 𝟏 − 𝒆 −𝝀 𝒕
) (
× 𝟏 −𝒆 −𝝀 𝒕
𝑨
)) 𝑩

(
𝑹 𝑺 (𝑺) =𝟏 −( 𝟏 −𝒆 −𝟎 . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟕 ×𝟓𝟎𝟎
) (
× 𝟏 −𝒆 −𝟎 . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟐 ×𝟓𝟎𝟎
))

𝑹 𝑺 (𝑺) =𝟎 . 𝟗𝟗=𝟗𝟗 %
 System Reliability
Question:
A vehicle with 4 identical tires is going on a ride without a
spare tire. If the tire has a MTBF = 100 hours, estimate the
reliability of 5 hours driving without having a flat tire.

 = 1 /MTBF = 1/100 = 0.01

Is it a series or parallel system ????!

 System Reliability
Question:  = 1 /MTBF = 1/100 = 0.01

As the car cannot be used unless having the 4 working tires:

It is a series System
Input A B C D Output

−( 𝝀¿ ¿ 𝑨+ 𝝀𝑩 + 𝝀 𝑪 + 𝝀 𝑫)𝒕 ¿
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
− ( 𝟒 𝝀) 𝒕
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
− ( 𝟒 × 𝟎 .𝟎𝟏 ) ×𝟓
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆 𝑹 𝑺 =𝟖𝟐 %
 System Reliability
Important Question:
A vehicle with 4 identical tires is going on a ride with a
spare tire. If the tire has a MTBF = 100 hours, estimate the
reliability of 5 hours driving without having a flat tire.

Is it a series or parallel system ????!

 System Reliability
Question:  = 1 /MTBF = 1/100 = 0.01

As the car cannot be used unless having the 4 working tires:

It is a complex System
Input A B C D Output

E
 System Reliability
Question:  = 1 /MTBF = 1/100 = 0.01
Input A B C D Output

𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆 −(𝟑 𝝀)𝒕
×( 𝟏−( ( 𝟏− 𝒆 − 𝝀𝒕
)× (𝟏 − 𝒆 −𝝀𝒕
) ))
− 𝝀𝒕 𝟐
×( 𝟏− ( ( 𝟏− 𝒆 ) ))
−( 𝟑 𝝀) 𝒕
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
−𝟎 . 𝟎𝟏×𝟓 𝟐
×(𝟏 −( ( 𝟏 −𝒆 ) ))
− ( 𝟑 ×𝟎 . 𝟎𝟏 ) 𝟓
𝑹 𝑺 =𝒆
𝑹 𝑺 =𝟖𝟔 %