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250 Lec 5 Fall 13
250 Lec 5 Fall 13
Lecture 5: Chapter 5
Statistical Analysis of Data
…yes the “S” word
What is a Statistic????
Sample
Sample
Sample
Population
Sample
3 Types
2. Graphical Representations
# of Ss that fall
in a particular category
total
Frequency ? ?
(%)
?/tot x 100 ?/tot x 100
scale of measurement?
-----% ------%
nominal
1. Frequency Distributions
# of Ss that fall
in a particular category
total
Democrats 24 1 25
Republican 19 6 25
Total 43 7 50
1. Frequency Distributions
smooth
Central Limit Theorem: the larger the sample size, the closer a distribution
will approximate the normal distribution or
2.5% 95%
2.5%
13.5%
13.5%
IQ
body temperature, shoe sizes, diameters of trees,
5% region of rejection of null hypothesis
Wt, height etc…
Non directional
Summary Statistics
describe data in just 2 numbers
Measures of variability
• typical average variation
Measures of central tendency
• typical average score
Measures of Central Tendency
• Quantitative data:
– Mode – the most frequently occurring
observation
– Median – the middle value in the data (50 50 )
– Mean – arithmetic average
• Qualitative data:
– Mode – always appropriate
– Mean – never appropriate
Mean
Notation
• The most common and most
useful average • Sample vs population
• Mean = sum of all observations • Sample mean = X
number of all observations
• Observations can be added in • Population mean =
any order. • Summation sign =
• Sample size = n
• Population size = N
Special Property of the Mean
Balance Point
Measures of variability
Measures of central tendency • typical average variation
• typical average score
1. range: distance from the
lowest to the highest (use 2
data points)
2. Variance: (use all data points)
3. Standard Deviation
4. Standard Error of the Mean
Descriptive & Inferential Statistics
Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
Sample
Sample
Population Sample
Sample
Error…misleading…not a mistake
P roba bility
• Numerical indication of how likely it is that a
given event will occur (General
Definition)“hum…what’s the probability it will rain?”
• Statistical probability:
the odds that what we observed in the sample did
not occur because of error (random and/or
systematic)“hum…what’s the probability that my results
are not just due to chance”
• In other words, the probability associated with
a statistic is the level of confidence we have that
the sample group that we measured actually
represents the total population
Chain of Reasoning for
Inferential Statistics
Selection
Sample
Population
Measure
Inference data
Probability
NULL Hypothesis:
H0 : 1 = 2
H1 : 1 = 2
Hypothesis
A statement about what findings are expected
null hypothesis
"the two groups will not differ“
alternative hypothesis
"group A will do better than group B"
"group A and B will not perform the same"
Inferential Statistics
Correct
Reject Error
Decision
Type I Error
Possible Outcomes in
Hypothesis Testing
Correct
Difference observed is really Reject Error
Decision
just sampling error Type I Error
2.5% 2.5%
5%
Possible Outcomes in
Hypothesis Testing
Correct
Difference observed is real Reject Error
Decision
Failed to reject the Null Type I Error
1. Increase our n
2. Decrease variability
Significance testing:
1. Between Subjects
2. Within Subjects – repeated measures
Meta-Analysis: