Spatial Models

What is model
• A model is a description of reality.
• Here, our interest is restricted to computer based models of spatial phenomena. These
models describe the basic properties or processes for a set of spatial features, and help us
understand their form and behavior.
• Many computer-based models use spatial data, and are developed and run using some
combination of GIS, general and specialized computer programming languages, and
spatial and nonspatial analytical tools.
• While there may be as many classes of models as there are modelers, here we split spatial
models into three broad and overlapping classes:
• cartographic models,
• simple spatial models, and
• spatio-temporal models.
Cartographic models
• Cartographic models solve problems via spatial layer combination in overlay,
buffers, reclassification, and other spatial operations.
• Suitability analyses, defined here as the classification of land according to
their utility for specific uses, are among the most common cartographic
models.
• Most cartographic models are temporally static because they represent spatial
features at a fixed point in time. These data are the basis for spatial operations
that may create new data layers.
• For example, we may be interested in identifying the land that is currently
most valuable for agriculture. Costs of production may depend on the slope
(steeper is costlier), soil type (some soils require more fertilizer), current land
cover (built-up is unsuitable, forests more expensive to clear), or distance to
roads or markets.
Weightings and Rankings
While some cartographic models are simple and restrictive, many more cartographic models
require the combination of criteria that vary across a range of values, and require an explicit
ranking of the relative importance of different classes or types of criteria. A simple,
restrictive example might require us to identify parcels greater than a certain size and within
a certain distance of water. We may clearly identify areas that meet these desired conditions.
Simple Spatial Models
• Predictive spatial models are commonly applied, particularly when here is a
well established model based on point or small-scale observations and
analysis, and when the output is a continuous variable, for example,
temperature, housing value, soil erosion rates, or cancer frequency.
• As noted earlier, our simple spatial models typically are based on one or a
few equations.
• GPP = E * NDVI * PAR
• where NDVI is the vegetation cover, PAR is the amount of sunlight available for
photosynthesis, and E is conversion efficiency, which may be fixed, or which may depend on
additional factors, such as vegetation type or soil dryness or type.
• Simple spatial models require spatial fields of all variables, and appropriate
parameters for all conditions in the modeled area. In our GPP example above,
we must have estimates of NDVI and PAR over our prediction region.
• While we call these simple spatial models, it is often time consuming and
difficult to develop the spatial data and estimate the parameters to apply these
models across space.
• The models are often based on observed relationships and measurements at
points or small plots, for example, the change in GPP across nearby forest
stands with different NDVI values.
• These may suffice to estimate for the specific types, but differences among
vegetation types may require repeat measurements over a broad range of
conditions.
• A network of field stations, perhaps in combination with remotely sensed
data, may be required to estimate the input variables, for example, PAR at the
required intervals across the landscape.
Spatio-Temporal Models
• Spatio-temporal models have been developed and applied in a number of
disciplines. This is an active area of research, as there are many fields of study
require analysis and predictions of spatially and time varying phenomena.
• Spatio-temporal models use spatially explicit inputs to calculate or predict
spatially explicit outputs. Rules, functions, or some other processes are applied
using spatial and often nonspatial data.
• Input variables such as elevation, vegetation type, human population density, or
rainfall may be used as inputs to one or more mathematical equations.
• These equations are then used to calculate a value for one or more spatial
locations. The values are often saved in a spatial data format, such as a layer in a
GIS.
• Spatio-temporal models involve at least a three-dimensional representation of one
or more key attributes – variation in planar (xy) space and through time. A fourth
dimension may be added if the vertical (z) direction is also modeled.
Cell-Based Models
• Cellular automata (CA) are one of the simplest forms of cell-based models.
Cellular automata operate on a single cell-based layer, using simple rules to
derive the next state from the current state.
• Cells typically have two states, on and off or dark and light. The cell is on or
off in the next step depending on the arrangement of on/off cells in the
vicinity of the target cells.
• Cell values at each time step completely determine the cell pattern in the next
time step.
• CA are useful learning tools and capable of providing some insights into how
simple systems can exhibit complex patterns, there are few problems for
which the simple space-transition rules may be clearly specified. Recent work
has advanced the application of cellular automata, particularly in modeling
urban development and landuse.
Agent-Based Modelling
• Agent-based models are a third type of spatio-temporal model, often applied
in cell based environments. Also known as individual- based models, these
systems contain “agents” that may move across digital landscapes.
• The landscape is often described by a set of variables stored in cells. Agents
may range across this grid, reacting to the environment or to other agents
according to a small set of prespecified rules.
• Complex behaviors may be exhibited from relatively simple sets of few rules.
• Agent-based models are currently active areas of research and application,
primarily in pedestrian and motorized transportation analyses, and in
conservation biology.
• These analyses may be used in turn to help design better cities, roads, or other
infrastructure.