Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 61

Measuring the Cost

of Living

生活费用的衡量

Chapter 24
Measuring the Cost of Living
生活费用的衡量
 Inflation refers to a situation in which the
economy’s overall price level is rising.
通货膨胀是指经济中物价总水平上升的情况。
 The inflation rate is the percentage change in
the price level from the previous period.
通货膨胀率是从前一个时期以来物价总水平变动的
百分比。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The Consumer Price Index

 The consumer price index (CPI) is a


measure of the overall cost of the goods
and services bought by a typical
consumer.
 The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports
the CPI each month.
 It is used to monitor changes in the cost
of living over time.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
消费物价指数

 消费物价指数 (CPI) 是普通消费者所购


买的物品与劳务的总费用的衡量标准。
 劳工部的一个部门劳工统计局每月都计
算并公布消费物价指数。
 它被用来监测生活费用随着时间的变化
情况。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The Consumer Price Index
消费物价指数

When the CPI rises, the typical family


has to spend more dollars to maintain
the same standard of living.
当 CPI 上升时,普通家庭不得不花费
更多的美元来保持原来的生活水平。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
How the Consumer Price Index
Is Calculated
 Fix the Basket: Determine what prices
are most important to the typical
consumer.
 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
identifies a market basket of goods and
services the typical consumer buys.
 The BLS conducts monthly consumer
surveys to set the weights for the prices of
those goods and services.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
如何计算消费物价指数

 固定篮子 : 确定哪些物价对普通消费
者是最重要的。
 劳工统计局 (BLS) 通过消费者调查并找
出普通消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务

 劳工统计局每月对消费者进行调查来确
定对这些物品与劳务价格的权数。
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated
如何计算消费物价指数

 Find the Prices: Find the prices of each


of the goods and services in the basket
for each point in time.
找出价格:找出每个时点上篮子中
每种物品与劳务的价格。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated
如何计算消费物价指数

 Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data


on prices to calculate the cost of the basket
of goods and services at different times.
计算这一篮子东西的费用:用价格数据
计算不同时点一篮子物品与劳务的费用。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
How the Consumer Price Index
Is Calculated

 Choose a Base Year and Compute


the Index:
 Designate one year as the base year,
making it the benchmark against which
other years are compared.
 Compute the index by dividing the price of
the basket in one year by the price in the
base year and multiplying by 100.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
如何计算消费物价指数

 选择基年并计算指数 :
 指定一年为基年,即其他各年与之比较的基
准。
 每年一篮子物品与劳务的价格除以基年一篮
子物品与劳务的价格,然后把这个比率乘以
100 ,所得出的数字就是消费物价指数。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated
如何计算消费物价指数

 Compute the inflation rate: The inflation


rate is the percentage change in the price
index from the preceding period.
计算通货膨胀率:通货膨胀率是从上一
年以来物价指数的变动百分比。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The Inflation Rate 通货膨胀率

The inflation rate is calculated as follows:


通货膨胀率计算如下:

CPI in Year 2 - CPI in Year 1


Inflation Rate in Year2   100
CPI in Year 1

第2年CPI - 第1年CPI
第2年的通货膨胀率   100
第1年CPI

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and
the Inflation Rate: An Example

表 1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个例子

第一步:调查消费者以确定固定的一篮子物品

4 个热狗, 2 个汉

Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and
the Inflation Rate: An Example

表 1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个例子

第二步:找出每年每种物品的价格

年 热狗价格 汉堡价格

Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and
the Inflation Rate: An Example

表 1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个例子

第三步:计算每年一篮子物品的费用

Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and
the Inflation Rate: An Example

表 1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个例子

第四步:选择一年为基年( 2001 )并计算每年的消费物价指数

Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and
the Inflation Rate: An Example

表 1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个例子

第五步:用消费物价指数计算自上一年以来的通货膨胀率

Copyright©2004 South-Western
How the Consumer Price Index IsCalculated

 Calculating the Consumer Price Index


and the Inflation Rate: Another Example
 Base Year is 2002.
 Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200.
 The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236.
 CPI = ($1,236/$1,200)  100 = 103.
 Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and
2004.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
如何计算消费物价指数

 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率:一个
例子
 基年选为 2002.
 2002 年这一篮子物品的费用是 1200 美元。
 2004 年同一篮子的费用是 1236 美元。
 CPI = ($1,236/$1,200)  100 = 103.
 在 2002 年至 2004 年间,物价上升了 3 %。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
FYI: What’s in the CPI’s Basket?

16%
Food and
beverages

17% 41%
Transportation Housing

Education and
6%
communication 6%
6% 4% 4%

Medical care
Other goods
Recreation Apparel and services
FYI: 在 CPI 的篮子中有些什么 ?

16%
食物与饮料

17% 41%
Transportation 住房

教育和
6%
通信 6%
6% 4% 4%

医疗
其他物品
娱乐 美容 与劳务
Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living
衡量生活费用中的问题

The CPI is an accurate measure of the


selected goods that make up the typical
bundle, but it is not a perfect measure
of the cost of living.
CPI 是所选择的构成消费篮子的物品的准确衡
量,但它并不是生活费用的完美衡量指标。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living
衡量生活费用中的问题

 Substitution bias
替代倾向
 Introduction of new goods
新产品的引进
 Unmeasured quality changes
无法衡量的质量变动

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

 Substitution Bias
 The basket does not change to reflect
consumer reaction to changes in relative
prices.
• Consumers substitute toward goods that have
become relatively less expensive.
• The index overstates the increase in cost of living
by not considering consumer substitution.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
衡量生活费用中的问题

 替代倾向
 当不同产品的相对价格发生变化时,消费
者会通过改变购买习惯对此有所反应,而
计算物价指数的市场篮子保持不变。
• 消费者转向购买变得相对便宜的替代物品。
• 消费物价指数不考虑这种消费者替代的可能
性,从而高估了生活费用的增加。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

 Introduction of New Goods


 The basket does not reflect the change in
purchasing power brought on by the
introduction of new products.
• New products result in greater variety, which
in turn makes each dollar more valuable.
• Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain
any given standard of living.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
衡量生活费用中的问题

 新产品的引进
 当引进了一种新产品时,消费者有了更多的
选择,使货币的购买力增加,计算消费物价
指数的市场篮子并没有反映这种变动。
• 新产品的引进为消费者提供了更多的选择机会,
进而使每一美元更值钱。
• 消费者可以需要更少的美元来维持一定的生活水
平。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

 Unmeasured Quality Changes


 If the quality of a good rises from one year
to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even
if the price of the good stays the same.
 If the quality of a good falls from one year
to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even
if the price of the good stays the same.
 The BLS tries to adjust the price for
constant quality, but such differences are
hard to measure.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
衡量生活费用中的问题

 无法衡量的质量变动
 如果从一年到下一年物品的质量上升了,即使该
物品的价格保持不变,一美元的价值也上升了。
 如果从一年到下一年物品的质量变差了,即使该
物品的价格保持不变,一美元的价值也下降了。
 劳工统计局尽其最大努力调整价格来考虑质量变
动,但是这些质量差异很难衡量。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

 The substitution bias, introduction of


new goods, and unmeasured quality
changes cause the CPI to overstate the
true cost of living.
 The issue is important because many
government programs use the CPI to
adjust for changes in the overall level of
prices.
 The CPI overstates inflation by about 1
percentage point per year.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
衡量生活费用中的问题

 替代倾向、新产品的引进和无法衡量
的质量变动导致 CPI 高估了实际的生
活费用。
 这个问题之所以重要,是因为许多政府计
划是用消费物价指数来调整物价总水平的
变动的。
 CPI 每年高估了 1 %左右的通货膨胀率。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index
GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数

The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:


GDP 平减指数计算如下:

Nominal GDP
GDP deflator =  100
Real GDP
名义 GDP
GDP 平减指数=  100
实际 GDP
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index
GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数

 The BLS calculates other prices indexes:


劳工统计局还计算其他价格指数:
 The index for different regions within the
country.
美国不同地区的价格指数。
 The producer price index, which measures the
cost of a basket of goods and services bought
by firms rather than consumers.
生产价格指数——衡量厂商而不是消费者购买
的一篮子物品与劳务的费用。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

 Economists and policymakers monitor


both the GDP deflator and the
consumer price index to gauge how
quickly prices are rising.
 There are two important differences
between the indexes that can cause
them to diverge.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数

 经济学家和政策制订者为了估计物价上
升有多快,即要关注 GDP 平减指数,
又要关注消费物价指数。
 有两个重要的差别导致这两个数字不一
致。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

 The GDP deflator reflects the prices


of all goods and services produced
domestically, whereas...
 …the consumer price index reflects
the prices of all goods and services
bought by consumers.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数

 GDP 平减指数反映了国内生产的所有
物品与劳务的价格,而 ...
 … 消费物价指数反映消费者购买的
所有物品与劳务的价格。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

 The consumer price index compares the


price of a fixed basket of goods and
services to the price of the basket in the
base year (only occasionally does the
BLS change the basket)...
 …whereas the GDP deflator compares
the price of currently produced goods and
services to the price of the same goods
and services in the base year.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
GDP 平减指数与消费物价指数

 消费物价指数 比较固定的一篮子物品
与劳务的价格与基年这一篮子物品与
劳务的价格(劳工局只是偶尔改变这
一篮子物品) ...
 … 而 GDP 平减指数比较现期生产的
物品与劳务的价格与基年同样物品与
劳务的价格。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation
通货膨胀的两个衡量指标

Percent
per Year
每年百分比
15

CPI 消费物价指数

10

5
GDP deflator
GDP 平减指数

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES
FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION
根据通货膨胀的影响校正经济变量

 Price indexes are used to correct for the


effects of inflation when comparing
dollar figures from different times.
当比较不同时点 上美元数字时,价
格指数被用来校正通货膨胀的影响。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Dollar Figures from Different Times

 Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe


Ruth’s wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:

P ric e le v e l in 2 0 0 1
S a la ry 2 0 0 1  S a la ry 1 9 3 1 
P ric e le v e l in 1 9 3 1

177
 $ 8 0 ,0 0 0 
1 5 .2

 $ 9 3 1,5 7 9

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
不同时期的美元数字

 通过以下计算将巴波 . 鲁思的 1931 年的薪水转


换成按 1999 年美元计算的薪水:

1999物价水平
薪水1999 =薪水1931 
1931物价水平

166
=$80,000 
15.2

=$873,684

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Table 2 The Most Popular Movies of All Times,
Inflation Adjusted

Copyright©2004 South-Western
表 2. 前 10 名卖座电影(根据通货膨胀进行了调整)

片名 上映 按 1999 年美元估算
年代 的国内总票房收入
(百万美元)
1. 乱世佳人 1939 920
2. 星球大战 1977 789
3. 音乐之声 1965 638
4. 泰坦尼克号 1997 601
5. 外星人:外星人入侵 1982 601
6. 十诫 1956 587
7. 大白鲨 1975 574
8. 日瓦戈医生 1965 543
9. 丛林日记 1967 485
10. 白雪公主 1937 476

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Indexation 指数化

When some dollar amount is


automatically corrected for inflation by
law or contract the amount is said to be
indexed for inflation.
当某一美元量根据法律或合约自动地按通
货膨胀校正时,这种美元量就称为通货膨
胀的指数化。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
实际与名义利率

Interest represents a payment in the


future for a transfer of money in the past.

利率代表未来要为过去转移的货币进行支
付。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Real and Nominal Interest Rates

 The nominal interest rate is the interest


rate not corrected for inflation.
 It is the interest rate that a bank pays.
 The real interest rate is the nominal
interest rate that is corrected for
inflation.

Real interest rate = (Nominal interest rate –


Inflation rate)

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
实际与名义利率

 名义利率 是没有根据通货膨胀校正的
利率。
 它是银行所支付的利率。
 实际利率 是根据通货膨胀校正的利率

实际利率 = 名义利率– 通货膨胀率

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Real and Nominal Interest Rates

 You borrowed $1,000 for one year.


 Nominal interest rate was 15%.
 During the year inflation was 10%.

Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation

= 15% - 10% = 5%

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
实际与名义利率

 你向银行借了 1,000 美元,期限一年。


 名义利率是 15% 。
 这一年中通货膨胀率是 10% 。

实际利率 = 名义利率 – 通货膨胀率

= 15% - 10% = 5%

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates
实际与名义利率

Interest Rates 利率
(percent
per year)
(每年百分比)
15

10 Nominal interest rate


名义利率

Real interest rate 实际利率


–5
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Summary

 The consumer price index shows the


cost of a basket of goods and services
relative to the cost of the same basket in
the base year.
 The index is used to measure the overall
level of prices in the economy.
 The percentage change in the CPI
measures the inflation rate.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
小结

 消费物价指数表示相对于基年一篮子物品
与劳务的费用,这一篮子物品与劳务的费
用是多少。
 这个指数用于衡量经济中的物价总水平。
 消费物价指数变动的百分比衡量通货膨胀
率。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary

 The consumer price index is an imperfect


measure of the cost of living for the
following three reasons: substitution
bias, the introduction of new goods, and
unmeasured changes in quality.
 Because of measurement problems, the
CPI overstates annual inflation by about
1 percentage point.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
小结

 消费物价指数并不是生活费用的一个完
美的衡量指标,这是因为消费物价指数
计算中没有考虑替代倾向、新产品的引
进和无法衡量的质量变动。
 因为这些衡量问题, CPI 高估了每年
的通货膨胀率 1 %左右

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary

 The GDP deflator differs from the CPI


because it includes goods and services
produced rather than goods and services
consumed.
 In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of
goods, while the GDP deflator
automatically changes the group of goods
and services over time as the composition
of GDP changes.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
小结

 GDP 平减指数不同于消费物价指数
CPI ,因为它包括生产出来的物品与劳务
,而不是消费的物品与劳务。
 另外,消费物价指数用固定的一篮子物品
,而 GDP 平减指数一直随 GDP 构成的
变动而自动地改变物品与劳务的组合。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary

 Dollar figures from different points in time


do not represent a valid comparison of
purchasing power.
 Various laws and private contracts use
price indexes to correct for the effects of
inflation.
 The real interest rate equals the nominal
interest rate minus the rate of inflation.

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
小结

 不同时点的美元数字并不代表正确的购
买力比较。
 各种法律和私人合约用物价指数来校正
通货膨胀的影响。
 真实利率等于名义利率减通货膨胀率。

Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.

You might also like