Chap 27

The Basic Tools of
Finance
27
基本金融工具
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Finance is the field that studies how people
make decisions regarding the allocation of
resources over time and the handling of risk.
金融学——研究人们如何在某一时期内
配置资源和应对风险时作出决策的学科。

PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• Present value refers to the amount of

money today that would be needed to
produce, using prevailing interest rates, a
given future amount of money.

现值：衡量货币的时间价值
• 现值—— 用现行利率带来一定量未来
货币所需要的现在货币量。

TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• The concept of present value demonstrates the
following:
• Receiving a given sum of money in the present
is preferred to receiving the same sun in the
future.
• In order to compare values at different points in
time, compare their present values.
• Firms undertake investment projects if the
present value of the project exceeds the cost.
• 现值的概念说明以下问题 :
• 接受现在给付的一定量货币比接受未来
等量的货币更可取。
• 为了比较不同时点上的货币价值，就要
比较它们的现值。
• 如果一个项目的现值超过成本，企业就
应该投资这个项目。

TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• If r is the interest rate, then an amount X to
be received in N years has present value of:

X/(1 + r)N

• 如果利率是 r ，则 N 年后收到的货
币量 X 的现值是：
X/(1 + r)N

TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• Future Value
• The amount of money in the future that an
amount of money today will yield, given
prevailing interest rates, is called the future
value.

• 未来价值
• 未来价值——在现行利率为既定时，现在
货币量将带来的未来货币量。

FYI: Rule of 70 70 规则
• According to the rule of 70,

70 if some
variable grows at a rate of x percent per
year, then that variable doubles in
approximately 70/x years.
years
根据 70 规则，如果某个变量每年按 x
% 增长，那么，在将近 70/x 年以后，
该变量翻一番。

MANAGING RISK 风险管理
• A person is said to be risk averse if she

exhibits a dislike of uncertainty.
如果一个人表现出不喜欢不确定性
，就称这个人为风险厌恶者。

MANAGING RISK
• Individuals can reduce risk choosing any

of the following:
• Buy insurance
• Diversify
• Accept a lower return on their investments

风险管理
• 个人可以选择以下任何一种方式降低
风险：
• 购买保险
• 多元化
• 接受低投资回报率

Figure 1 Risk Aversion
Utility
Utility gain
from winning
$1,000
Utility loss
from losing
$1,000
0 Wealth
Current
$1,000 wealth $1,000
loss gain
Copyright©2004 South-Western
图 1. 风险厌恶
Util 效用 ity
赢得 1000 美元
获得的效用
失去 1000 美元
损失的效用
0 财富
失去 1000 现期财富得到 1000
美元美元
The Markets for Insurance
• One way to deal with risk is to buy

insurance.
insurance
• The general feature of insurance contracts
is that a person facing a risk pays a fee to
an insurance company, which in return
agrees to accept all or part of the risk.

保险市场
• 对付风险的一种方法是购买保险。
• 保险合约的一般特点是，面临风险的
人向保险公司支付一笔保险费，作为
回报，保险公司同意接受所有或部分
保险。

Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk
特有风险的多元化
• Diversification refers to the reduction of risk

achieved by replacing a single risk with a
large number of smaller unrelated risks.
多元化——通过用大量不相关小风险代
替一种风险来减少风险。

• Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects

only a single person. The uncertainty
associated with specific companies.
特有风险——只影响一个经济主体的
风险，与某公司相关的不确定性。

• Aggregate risk is the risk that affects all

economic actors at once, the uncertainty
associated with the entire economy.
总风险——同时影响所有经济主体的风险，与
影响所有公司的整个经济相关的不确定性。
• Diversification cannot remove aggregate risk.
多元化不能消除总风险。

Figure 2 Diversification
Risk (standard
deviation of
portfolio return)
(More risk)
49
Idiosyncratic
risk
20
Aggregate
(Less risk) risk
0 1 4 6 8 10 20 30 40 Number of
Stocks in
Portfolio
图 2 . 多元化
风险 ( 有价证券
组合的标准差 )
( 风险大 )
49
特有风险
20
总风险
( 风险小 )
0 1 4 6 8 10 20 30 40
有价证券组合
中股票的数量
• People can reduce risk by accepting a

lower rate of return.
人们可以通过接受低回报率来降低
风险。

Figure 3 The Tradeoff between Risk and Return
Return
(percent 100%
per year) stocks
75%
stocks
50%
8.3 stocks
25%
stocks
No
stocks
3.1
0 5 10 15 20 Risk
(standard
deviation)
图 3. 风险与收益权衡取舍
收益
（每年百分比）
100%
75% 股票
股票
50%
8.3 股票
25%
股票
没有
股票
3.1
0 5 10 15 20
风险
（标准差）
ASSET VALUATION 资产评价
• Fundamental analysis is the study of a

company’s accounting statements and future
prospects to determine its value.
基本分析——研究一家公司的会计报表
与未来前景以决定其价值。

ASSET VALUATION 资产评价
• People can employ fundamental analysis to try

to determine if a stock is undervalued,
overvalued, or fairly valued.
人们可以通过基本分析试图发现某一股票
是否被低估、高估还是公正的估价。
• The goal is to buy undervalued stock.
基本分析的目的就是购买被低估的股票
。
Efficient Markets Hypothesis 有效市场假设
• The efficient markets hypothesis is the

theory that asset prices reflect all publicly
available information about the value of
an asset.
有效市场假说——认为资产价格反
映了一种资产所有公开的可获得信息
的理论。

Efficient Markets Hypothesis
• A market is informationally efficient when

it reflects all available information in a
rational way.
• If markets are efficient, the only thing an
investor can do is buy a diversified
portfolio

有效市场假说
• 当一个市场理性地反映了所有可获得
信息的时候，就说这个市场是信息有
效的。
• 如果市场是有效的，投资者所能做的
最好的事就是购买多元化的有价证券
组合。
CASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index Funds
• Random walk refers to the path of a variable

whose changes are impossible to predict.
• If markets are efficient, all stocks are fairly
valued and no stock is more likely to
appreciate than another. Thus stock prices
follow a random walk.

案例研究 : 随机行走与指数基金
• 随机行走—— 一种变量变动的路径是
不可预期的。
• 如果市场是有效的，那么所有的股票都
被公正的估价，没有任何一种股票可能
优于其他股票。因此，股票价格遵循随
机行走。

Summary
• Because savings can earn interest, a sum of

money today is more valuable than the same
sum of money in the future.
• A person can compare sums from different
times using the concept of present value.
• The present value of any future sum is the
amount that would be needed today, given
prevailing interest rates, to produce the future
sum.
小结
• 由于储蓄可以赚到利息，所以今天的货币
总量比未来相同的货币总量更有价值。
• 人们可以用现值的概念比较不同时点上的
货币总量。
• 任何一笔未来货币总量的现值是现行的利
率为既定时带来那种货币总量今天所需要
的货币总量。

Summary
• Because of diminishing marginal utility, most

people are risk averse.
• Risk-averse people can reduce risk using insurance,
through diversification, and by choosing a portfolio
with lower risk and lower returns.
• The value of an asset, such as a share of stock,
equals the present value of the cash flows the
owner of the share will receive, including the
stream of dividends and the final sale price.

小结
• 由于边际效用递减，大多数人是风险厌恶者。
• 风险厌恶者能以购买保险、通过多元化以及通
过选择低风险和低收益的有价证券组合来降低
风险。
• 一种资产的价值，例如一股股票的价值，等于
该股所有者将获得的现金流量的现值，这种现
金流包括红利流量以及最后出售价格。

Summary
• According to the efficient markets

hypothesis, financial markets process
available information rationally, so a stock
price always equals the best estimate of the
value of the underlying business.
• Some economists question the efficient
markets hypothesis, however, and believe
that irrational psychological factors also
influence asset prices.
小结
• 根据有效市场假说，金融市场理性地
拥有信息，因此股票价格总是等于基
本企业价值的最好估算。
• 一些经济学家质疑有效市场假说，并
相信，非理性的心理因素也影响资产
价格。

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Chap 27

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The Basic Tools of

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Present value refers to the amount of

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• If r is the interest rate, then an amount X to

be received in N years has present value of:

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• According to the rule of 70,

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• A person is said to be risk averse if she

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Individuals can reduce risk choosing any

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• One way to deal with risk is to buy

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Diversification refers to the reduction of risk

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Aggregate risk is the risk that affects all

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• People can reduce risk by accepting a

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Fundamental analysis is the study of a

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• People can employ fundamental analysis to try

• The efficient markets hypothesis is the

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• A market is informationally efficient when

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Random walk refers to the path of a variable

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Because savings can earn interest, a sum of

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• Because of diminishing marginal utility, most

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

• According to the efficient markets

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

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