曼昆《经济学原理第三版》宏观分册原版中英文双语PPT课件Chap 25

9
THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN

长期中的实际经济
Production and Growth
生产与增长
Chapter 25
生产与增长
A country’s standard of living

depends on its ability to produce
goods and services.
一国的生活水平决定于它生产物品
与劳务的能力。
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
生产与增长
Within a country there are large

changes in the standard of living
over time.
即使在一个国家内，生活水平也随
着时间推移而发生了巨大变化。
生产与增长
In the United States over the past

century, average income as measured by
real GDP per person has grown by about
2 percent per year.
在美国过去一个世纪里，按人均实际
GDP 衡量的平均收入每年增长 2 ％左右
。
 Productivity refers to the amount of

goods and services produced for each
hour of a worker’s time.
 A nation’s standard of living is
determined by the productivity of its
workers.
生产与增长
 生产率是指一个工人一小时生
产的物品与劳务量。
 一国的生活水平决定于它的工人
的生产率。
Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences
Copyright©2004 South-Western
表 1. 不同的增长经历
国别时期期初人均 GDP 期末人均 GDP

增长率（每年）
日本 1890 ～ 2000 1 256 美元 26 460 美元
2.81 ％
巴西 1900 ～ 2000 650 7 320
2.45
墨西哥 1900 ～ 2000 968 8 810 2
.23
加拿大 1870 ～ 2000 1 984 27 330 2
.04
德国 1870 ～ 2000 1 825 25 010
2.03
中国 1900 ～ 2000 598 3 940
1.90
阿根廷 1900 ～ 2000 1 915 12 090
1.86
美国 1870 ～ 2000 3 347 34 260
1.81
印度 1900 ～ 2000 564 2 390
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Economic Growth Around the World
世界各国的经济增长
Living standards, as measured by

real GDP per person, vary
significantly among nations.
人均实际 GDP 数据表明各国生活
水平差别很大。
The poorest countries have average

levels of income that have not been seen
in the United States for many decades.
最穷的国家的平均收入水平是美国几
十年来所没有看到的。
 Annual growth rates that seem small

become large when compounded for
many years.
 Compounding refers to the
accumulation of a growth rate over a
period of time.
 看起来很小的增长率在许多年的复
利计算之后变得很大。
 复利计算是指在一个时期内的增
长率的累积。
Compounding and the Rule of 70
复利计算与 70 规则的魔力
According to the rule of 70, if some variable

grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that
variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.
根据 70 规则，如果某个变量每年按 x% 增长
，那么在将近 70/x 年以后该变量翻一番。
An Example of the Rule of 70
 $5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per

year, will double in size in 10 years
70/ 7 = 10
70 规则的一个例子
 每年利率为 7 ％的 5000 美元投资在 10 年

后的价值翻一番。
70/ 7 = 10
PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS
生产率 : 作用及决定因素
Productivity plays a key role in

determining living standards for
all nations in the world.
生产率在决定世界上所有国家的生
活水平方面起着关键的作用。
Why Productivity Is So Important
为什么生产率如此重要
Productivity refers to the quantity of

goods and services that a worker can
produce from each hour of work.
生产率是指一个工人一小时内所生产
的物品与劳务量。
Why Productivity Is So Important
为什么生产率如此重要
To understand the large differences in

living standards across countries. We
must focus on the production of goods
and services.
为了理解各国生活水平的巨大差别，我
们必须集中在物品与劳务的生产上。
How Productivity Is Determined
生产率是如何决定的
 The inputs used to produce goods and

services are called the factors of production.
用于生产物品与劳务的投入被称为生产要
素
 The factors of production directly determine
productivity.
生产要素直接决定了生产率。
 The Factors of Production

生产要素
 Physical capital 物质资本
 Human capital 人力资本
 Natural resources 自然资源
 Technological knowledge 技术知识
 Physical Capital
 is a produced factor of production.
• It is an input into the production process that in the past
was an output from the production process.
 is the stock of equipment and structures that are
used to produce goods and services.
• Tools used to build or repair automobiles.
• Tools used to build furniture.
• Office buildings, schools, etc.
 物质资本
 是生产出来的生产要素。
• 它是生产过程的投入，也是过去生产过程的
产出。
 是用于生产物品与劳务的设备与建筑物的
存量。
• 用于生产或修理汽车的工具。
• 用于生产家具的工具。
• 办公楼，学校等等…
 Human Capital
 the economist’s term for the knowledge
and skills that workers acquire through
education, training, and experience
• Like physical capital, human capital raises a
nation’s ability to produce goods and
services.
 人力资本
 经济学家用来指工人通过教育、培训和经
验而获得的知识和技能的一个术语。
• 和物质资本一样，人力资本提高一个国家生
产物品与劳务的能力。
 Natural Resources
 inputs used in production that are provided by
nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits.
• Renewable resources include trees and forests.
• Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and
coal.
 can be important but are not necessary for an
economy to be highly productive in producing goods
and services.
 自然资源
 由自然界提供的用于生产物品与劳务的投
入，如土地、河流和矿藏。
• 可再生资源包括树木和森林。
• 不可再生资源包括石油和煤炭。
 可能是重要的，但它们并不是一个经济体
生产物品与劳务中生产率高的必要条件。
 Technological Knowledge
 society’s understanding of the best ways to
produce goods and services.
 Human capital refers to the resources
expended transmitting this understanding
to the labor force.
 技术知识
 社会对生产物品与劳务的最好方法的
理解。
 人力资本是指把这些理解传递给劳动
力的资源消耗。
The Production Function 生产函数
Economists often use a production function

to describe the relationship between the
quantity of inputs used in production and
the quantity of output from production.
经济学家经常用生产函数来描述用于生产
的投入量和生产的产出量之间的关系。
The Production Function
Y = A F(L, K, H, N)
Y = quantity of output
A = available production technology
L = quantity of labor
K = quantity of physical capital
H = quantity of human capital
N = quantity of natural resources
F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs
are combined.
生产函数
Y = A F(L, K, H, N)
= 产出量 Y
A
= 可得到的生产技术
= 劳动量 L
= 物质资本量 K
= 人力资本量 H
= 自然资源量 N
F( ) 是一个表示投入如何结合起来以生产
产出的函数。
The Production Function 生产函数
 A production function has constant returns to

scale if, for any positive number x,
如果给定任何一个正数 x ，下式成立，则该
生产函数的规模收益不变。
xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)

 That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the
amount of output to double as well.
这就是说，投入翻番就会使产出翻番。
 Production functions with constant returns
to scale have an interesting implication.
 Setting x = 1/L,
Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)
Where:
Y/L = output per worker
K/L = physical capital per worker
H/L = human capital per worker
N/L = natural resources per worker
生产函数
 规模收益不变的生产函数有一个令人感
兴趣的含义。
 设 x = 1/L,
Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)
这里 :
Y/L = 每个工人的产量
K/L = 每个工人的物质资本
H/L = 每个工人的人力资本
N/L = 每个工人的自然资源
The preceding equation says that productivity

(Y/L) depends on physical capital per worker
(K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and
natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as
the state of technology, (A).
生产函数
这个公式说明，生产率 (Y/L) 取决于每个

工人的物质资本 (K/L) ，每个工人的人力
资本 (H/L) ，每个工人的自然资源，
(N/L) ，以及技术状况 (A).
Economic Growth and Public Policy
经济增长与公共政策
Governments can do many things

to raise productivity and living
standards.
政府可以做很多事情来提高生产
率和生活水平。
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY
 Government Policies That Raise

Productivity and Living Standards
 Encourage saving and investment.
 Encourage investment from abroad
 Encourage education and training.
 Establish secure property rights and maintain
political stability.
 Promote free trade.
 Promote research and development.
经济增长与公共政策
 提高生产率和生活水平的政府政策
 鼓励储蓄和投资
 鼓励来自国外的投资
 鼓励教育和培训
 建立完善的产权保护机制和政治稳定
 促进自由贸易
 促进研究与开发
The Importance of Saving and Investment
储蓄与投资的重要性
One way to raise future productivity is

to invest more current resources in the
production of capital.
提高未来生产率的一种方法就是把更
多现期资源投资于资本的生产。
Figure 1 Growth and Investment
(a) Growth Rate 1960–1991 (b) Investment 1960–1991
South Korea South Korea

Singapore Singapore
Japan Japan
Israel Israel
Canada Canada
Brazil Brazil
West Germany West Germany
Mexico Mexico
United Kingdom United Kingdom
Nigeria Nigeria
United States United States
India India
Bangladesh Bangladesh
Chile Chile
Rwanda Rwanda
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10 20 30 40
Growth Rate (percent) Investment (percent of GDP)
图 1. 增长与投资
(a) 1960-1991 增长率 (b) 1960-1991 投资
韩国 South Korea
新加坡 Singapore
日本 Japan
以色列 Israel
加拿大 Canada
巴西 Brazil
西德 West Germany
墨西哥 Mexico
英国 United Kingdom
尼日利亚 Nigeria
美国 United States
印度 India
孟加拉国 Bangladesh
智利 Chile
卢旺达 Rwanda
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10 20 30 40
增长率 ( 百分比 ) 投资 (GDP 的％ )
Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect
 As the stock of capital rises, the extra

output produced from an additional
unit of capital falls; this property is
called diminishing returns.
 Because of diminishing returns, an
increase in the saving rate leads to
higher growth only for a while.
收益递减与追赶效应
 随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单
位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性
被称为收益递减。
 因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更
高的增长只是暂时的。
In the long run, the higher saving rate

leads to a higher level of productivity
and income, but not to higher growth
in these areas.
在长期中，高储蓄率引起高水平的生产率
和收入，但在这些变量中并没有高增长。
The catch-up effect refers to the condition

that, other things being equal, it is easier
for a country to grow fast if it starts out
relatively poor.
追赶效应是指在其他条件相同的情况下，如果
一国开始时较穷，它要迅速增长是容易的。
Investment from Abroad
来自国外的投资
Governments can increase capital

accumulation and long-term economic
growth by encouraging investment
from foreign sources.
政府可以通过鼓励来自国外的投资来
增加资本积累和长期的经济增长。
Investment from Abroad
Investment from abroad takes several

forms:
Foreign Direct Investment
 Capital investment owned and operated by
a foreign entity.
Foreign Portfolio Investment
 Investments financed with foreign money
but operated by domestic residents.
来自国外的投资
来自国外的投资采取几种形式：
外国直接投资
 由外国实体拥有并经营的资本投资。
外国有价证券投资
 用外国货币筹资，但由国内居民经营的
投资。
Education
 For a country’s long-run growth, education
is at least as important as investment in
physical capital.
 In the United States, each year of schooling
raises a person’s wage on average by about 10
percent.
 Thus, one way the government can enhance the
standard of living is to provide schools and
encourage the population to take advantage of
them.
教育
 教育对一个国家的长期经济成功至少
与物质资本投资同样重要。
 在美国，每一年正规教育使人的平均收入
增加 10 ％左右。
 因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一种方法
是提供良好的学校，并鼓励人们利用这些
学校。
Education 教育
An educated person might generate new ideas

about how best to produce goods and
services, which in turn, might enter society’s
pool of knowledge and provide an external
benefit to others.
一个受过教育的人会产生一些有关如何最好
地生产物品与劳务的新思想，这些新思想进
入社会知识宝库，并给他人带来外部效益。
Education 教育
One problem facing some poor

countries is the brain drain--the
emigration of many of the most highly
educated workers to rich countries.
一些贫穷国家面临的一个问题是人才
外流——许多受过最高教育的工人移
民到富国。
Property Rights and Political Stability
 Property rights refer to the ability of

people to exercise authority over the
resources they own.
 An economy-wide respect for property
rights is an important prerequisite for the
price system to work.
 It is necessary for investors to feel that
their investments are secure.
产权和政治稳定
 产权是指人们对其拥有的资源行使权
力的能力。
 价格制度发生作用的一个重要前提是经济
中广泛尊重产权。
 让投资者感到他们的投资安全是必要的。
Free Trade
 Trade is, in some ways, a type of

technology.
 A country that eliminates trade
restrictions will experience the same
kind of economic growth that would
occur after a major technological
advance.
自由贸易
 在某些方面，贸易是一种技术。
 取消了贸易限制的国家将有重大技
术进步以后出现的同类经济增长。
Free Trade
 Some countries engage in . . .

. . . inward-orientated trade policies,
avoiding interaction with other
countries.
. . . outward-orientated trade policies,
encouraging interaction with other
countries.
自由贸易
 一些国家实施 . . .
. . . 内向型贸易政策 , 避免与世界
其他国家相互交易。
. . . 外向型贸易政策，鼓励与其他
国家相互交易。
Research and Development
 The advance of technological knowledge

has led to higher standards of living.
 Most technological advance comes from
private research by firms and individual
inventors.
 Government can encourage the development
of new technologies through research grants,
tax breaks, and the patent system.
研究与开发
 技术知识的进步带来更高的生活水平。
 大多数技术进步来自企业和个人所进行的
私人研究。
 政府通过补贴、减税和专利制度来鼓励新
技术的开发。
CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown
and Speedup
 From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a

rate of 3.2 percent per year.
 From 1973 to 1995 productivity grew by
only 1.5 percent per year.
 Productivity accelerated again in 1995,
growing by 2.6 percent per year on
average during the next six years.
案例研究 : 生产率增长放慢与加快
 从 1959 年到 1973 年，生产率每年增

长 3.2 ％。
 从 1973 到 1995 年，生产率每年增长只
有 1.5 ％。
 从 1995 年开始，生产率增长又加快了，
在随后的 6 年里平均每年增长 2.6 ％。
CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown
and Speedup
 The causes of the changes in productivity

growth are elusive.
 The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors
of production that are most easily measured.
 Many economists attribute the slowdown and
speedup in economic growth to changes in
technology and the creation of new ideas.
案例研究 : 生产率增长放慢与加快
 生产率增长变化的原因是捉摸不定的。
 这种生产率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易
衡量的生产要素。
 许多经济学家把经济增长快慢归因于技
术变革和新思想的创造。
Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Per Person
Growth Rate
(percent
per year)
4.0
增
长
率 3.5
（
每 3.0
年
百 2.5
分
比 2.0
）
1.5
1.0
0 1870– 1890– 1910– 1930– 1950– 1970– 1990–

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2000
Population Growth 人口增长
 Economists and other social scientists

have long debated how population
growth affects a society 。
长期以来，经济学家和其他社会学家
一直争论人口增长如何影响一个社会。
Population Growth
 Population growth interacts with other

factors of production:
 Stretching natural resources
 Diluting the capital stock
 Promoting technological progress
人口增长
 人口增长与其他生产要素相互作用 :
 使自然资源量更加紧张
 稀释了资本存量
 促进了技术进步
Summary
 Economic prosperity, as measured by real
GDP per person, varies substantially
around the world.
 The average income of the world’s richest
countries is more than ten times that in the
world’s poorest countries.
 The standard of living in an economy
depends on the economy’s ability to
produce goods and services.
小结
 按人均 GDP 衡量的经济繁荣在世界

各国差别很大。
 世界最富裕国家的平均收入是世界最
贫穷国家的 10 倍以上。
 一国经济的生活水平取决于该经济生
产物品与劳务的能力。
Summary
 Productivity depends on the amounts

of physical capital, human capital,
natural resources, and technological
knowledge available to workers.
 Government policies can influence the
economy’s growth rate in many
different ways.
小结
 生产率取决于物质资本量、人力资
本量、自然资源量和技术知识。
 政府政策可以以许多方式影响经济
的增长率。
Summary
 The accumulation of capital is subject to

diminishing returns.
 Because of diminishing returns, higher
saving leads to a higher growth for a
period of time, but growth will eventually
slow down.
 Also because of diminishing returns, the
return to capital is especially high in poor
countries.
小结
 资本积累受收益递减的限制。
 因为收益递减，高储蓄率会引起一定
时期内的经济增长，但增长最终会放
慢。
 也是因为收益递减，穷国资本的收益
率特别高。

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曼昆《经济学原理第三版》宏观分册原版中英文双语PPT课件Chap 25

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9

THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN

A country’s standard of living

Within a country there are large

In the United States over the past

 Productivity refers to the amount of

国别 时期 期初人均 GDP 期末人均 GDP

Living standards, as measured by

The poorest countries have average

 Annual growth rates that seem small

According to the rule of 70, if some variable

 $5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per

 每年利率为 7 ％的 5000 美元投资在 10 年

Productivity plays a key role in

Productivity refers to the quantity of

To understand the large differences in

 The inputs used to produce goods and

 The Factors of Production

Economists often use a production function

 A production function has constant returns to

xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)

The preceding equation says that productivity

这个公式说明，生产率 (Y/L) 取决于每个

Governments can do many things

 Government Policies That Raise

One way to raise future productivity is

(a) Growth Rate 1960–1991 (b) Investment 1960–1991

South Korea South Korea

增长率 ( 百分比 ) 投资 (GDP 的％ )

 As the stock of capital rises, the extra

In the long run, the higher saving rate

The catch-up effect refers to the condition

Governments can increase capital

Investment from abroad takes several

An educated person might generate new ideas

One problem facing some poor

 Property rights refer to the ability of

 Trade is, in some ways, a type of

 Some countries engage in . . .

 The advance of technological knowledge

 From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a

 从 1959 年到 1973 年，生产率每年增

 The causes of the changes in productivity

0 1870– 1890– 1910– 1930– 1950– 1970– 1990–

 Economists and other social scientists

 Population growth interacts with other

 按人均 GDP 衡量的经济繁荣在世界

 Productivity depends on the amounts

 The accumulation of capital is subject to

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国别时期期初人均 GDP 期末人均 GDP