Department of Mathematic (

CNCS)
Study of program:-
Mathematical Modelling
Assignment for Mathematical Epidemiology
Name:- ID .No
1.Addisu Demiesie Desie P gp /575/13
2.Gemeda Jemal
 Cont’d
 Model Description and formulation
 Cont’d
Governed by the following system of differential equation
 Cont’d
With the initial condition
 cccccccccs
 Cont’d
Try to do Qualitative Analysis of the above Model
i) Invariant Region.
ii) Positivity of the Solution
iii) The disease free Equilibrium
iv) Basic Reproductive number
v) Stability Analysis of Disease-Free Equilibrium (Local and Global )
vi) Endemic Equilibrium
vii) Stability Analysis of Endemic Equilibrium
viii) Sensitivity Analysis of Model parameter.
1.Model analysis
In this section ,the invariant region ,positivity of solution disease free
equilibrium point, endemic equilibrium point, basic reproduction number,
Stability analysis and Sensitivity are discussed.
 Cont’d

1)
 Cont’d
1.1 Invariant region
In this Section a region in which Solutions of the model System are uniformly
bounded is the proper subset . The total Population at any time t is given by
The differentiating N with respect to t and using (1) gives us

(3)
In the absence of death (asymptomatic individuals)( i.e A=D=0) becomes,
 Cont’d
Integrating both sides
Let ,

since, &
,
Hence,
 Cont’d
Therefore ,the feasible solution set of the system of the model
remain in the region,

1.2 Positivity of Solutions

In this section ,to obtain the solution of the model is non –
negative we stated and proved the following theorem.
Theorem1. Letthen the solution of are positive for .
Proof: From the system of differential , let us take the first
equation,
 Cont’d
, By using separating of variables and integrating both sides, we get ,
since ,where c is a constant.
Hence, the proof holds if for all .
 Cont’d
Hence ,the proof hold if
.
1.3. Disease-free equilibrium point (DFEP)
We calculate disease free equilibrium of model (1) by equating the right hand
side equation to zero and the putting
We have that,

From we have that

Substituting into ,We have that
 Cont’d

,
Now substituting into
We have that, ,
Therefore ,,
 Cont’d
1.4 Basic Reproductive number
We calculate the basic reproduction number of the system by applying the
next generation matrix method. The basic reproduction number is the eigen-
value of largest magnitude of the next generation matrix, that is, the number of
all new infectious types in the next generation.
Based on system (1) the infective compartments are only ().
F be the rate of appearance of new infections in compartments () and V be the
rate of transfer of individuals out of compartment ().
 Cont’d
&

Where

Now find the Jacobean of

Cont’d
 Cont’d
Where

=
 Cont’d

( )
𝜕 𝑣1 𝜕 𝑣1 𝜕 𝑣1 𝜕 𝑣1 𝜕 𝑣1
𝜕E 𝜕A 𝜕I 𝜕T 𝜕Q
𝜕 𝑣2 𝜕 𝑣2 𝜕 𝑣2 𝜕 𝑣2 𝜕 𝑣2

( )
γ+μ 0 0 0 0
𝜕E 𝜕A 𝜕I 𝜕T 𝜕Q
0 δ +μ 0 0 0
𝜕 𝑣3 𝜕 𝑣3 𝜕 𝑣3 𝜕 𝑣3 𝜕 𝑣3
J v= = 0 0 K1 0 0
𝜕E 𝜕A 𝜕I 𝜕T 𝜕Q 0 0 0 K2 0
𝜕 𝑣4 𝜕𝑣4 𝜕 𝑣4 𝜕 𝑣4 𝜕 𝑣4
0 0 0 0 K3
𝜕E 𝜕A 𝜕I 𝜕T 𝜕Q
𝜕 𝑣5 𝜕 𝑣5 𝜕 𝑣5 𝜕 𝑣5 𝜕 𝑣5
𝜕E 𝜕A 𝜕I 𝜕T 𝜕Q
 Cont’d
And
 Cont’d
Thus, we need to find the spectral radius of F:
 Cont’d
Now by obtaining the characteristic polynomial & solving Eigen values, we
have
Hence, with next generation matrix rule the largest Eigen-value of the next
generation matrix is the basic reproduction number.
Therefore, the basic reproduction number is given by
 Cont’d
1.5 Stability analysis of Disease- Free Equilibrium (Local and Global)
 Local stability of disease-free equilibrium
Theorem 2.The disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable
if and unstable if .
Proof: To prove local stability of disease free equilibrium, we obtained the
Jacobean matrix of the system (1) at the disease-free equilibrium (DFEP).
Cont’d
 Cont’d
Where
¿
Cont’d
 Cont’d
From determinant of equation we can obtained

(
 Cont’d
This is quadratic. There are two eigenvalues , corresponding to the roots of
the characteristic’s polynomial, the dominant eigenvalue is considered the
basic reproductive number Ro. So, we have from the solution that.

Therefore, If Ro < 1 then the DFEP of the deterministic model is locally

asymptotically stable and also the Eigen values of the Jacobean matrix
evaluated at DFEP are strictly negative.
 Cont’d
 Global stability of disease-free equilibrium
Definition:- A Liapunov function is a continuous differentiable real-valued
function L(E),such that
(i).L(E)>0 for all E and L( (L is positive definite)
(ii). for all E (all trajectories are down hill towards )
The is globally asymptotically stable
Theorem 3.If ,the endemic equilibrium of the model (1) is globally
asymptotically stable.
Proof:-To prove the global asymptotic stability of the endemic , equilibrium,
we use the method of Lyapunov functions.
Consider the lyapunov functions
 Cont’d
L(,,,
Now calculating the derivative of L along the solution of equation (1), we
have that
Cont’d
 Cont’d
(6)
Thus collecting positive terms together and negative terms
together from Equation (6) leads to
 Cont’d
Y=
 Cont’d
Thus if Z<Y, then ;
Noting that if and only is
Therefore ,the largest compact invariant set in is the singleton ,where is the
endemic equilibrium of the system (1).
By lasalle’s invariant principle (?),it implies that is globally asymptotically
stable in if Z<Y
 Cont’d
1.6 Endemic equilibrium point (EEP)
In this sub-section we obtain the equilibrium point at which the disease
persists in the community. The endemic equilibrium point (EEP) of system (1)
is obtained by equating all equations of the model to be zero.
From we have that

(*1)
From we have that
(*2)
Substituting (*2) into
 Cont’d
,

(*3)
Substituting (*3) into (*1)

(*4)
Substituting (*2) into (*4) we have that,
 Cont’d
From we have that
,

From we have that,

 Cont’d
(*5)
Equating (*1) and (*5)

Where,

Substituting into we have that

 Cont’d

Where,
 Cont’d
From we have that
 Cont’d
Where,

we have that

From we have that

 Cont’d
From we have that
=0

Therefore ,the System (1) has endemic equilibrium point

,,,
 Cont’d
1.7 Stability Analysis of Endemic Equilibrium
Theorem 3.If then the endemic equilibrium of system (1)
is locally asymptotically stable in
Proof:- To prove the local Stability of endemic
equilibrium we obtain the Jacobean matrix at endemic
equilibrium.
(i)

From equation (i) we can get the following

characteristic polynomial in equation (ii)
(ii)
 Cont’d
Where,

+),
+
+
+)(
+)((
 Cont’d
For,

According to the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, for the endemic equilibrium

( is locally asymptotically stable if,
 Cont’d
1.8 Sensitivity Analysis of Model parameter
Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the importance of each
parameter to the transmission dynamics of disease. The analysis helps to
measure the relative change in a variable when a parameter changes. Such
information is very important to study transmission dynamics of the disease.
The sensitivity index with respect to a parameter p is given by =.
Cont’d
 Cont’d

*
Cont’d
 Cont’d
Parameter Index
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
 Cont’d
The above analysis and table show the sensitivity indices of to
the parameters for disease model, we summarize the
interpretation of sensitivity indices. The sensitivity indices of the
basic reproductive number with respect to the main parameters
are discussed above and summarized in Table 1.Accordingly the
parameters have positive sensitivity indices which show that
they have great impact on expanding the disease in the
community if their values get increased .On the other hand the
parameters u,and have negative sensitivity indices, so decreasing
their valve will result in minimizing the expansion of the disease.
 The End
Thank-you!!!