Learning curves

PM 7A & 7B
Bilal Khan
 The learning curve
• Graphic illustration of the productivity change as
a function of repetition (or time). It is relatively
stable in time, thus we can use it to predictions.
• Theodore Paul Wright (1936)
Learning Rate: The percentage of the previous worker hours per unit
required for doubling the output.
Learning curve with no change in the task
 Learning Curve Problems:

Note: Each time cumulative

output doubles, the time per unit
for that amount should be Units Computation Hours
approximately equals to the 01st
previous time, multiplied by the
02nd
learning percentage.
04th
For Example: If a 1st unit of 08th
electronic device took 100 Hours 16th
to complete and the learning rate 32nd
is 90%. How much time it needs
to finish the 2nd, 4th, 8th, 16th and
32nd repetition?
Condition (a): If the learning rate is 90% and the first unit
took 100 Hours to complete, how long will it take to
complete the 27th unit?
Condition (b): If the learning rate is 90% and the first unit
took 100 Hours to complete, how long will it take to
complete first 27 units?

1.What will be the cumulative production time?

 T27 = 100 x 18.929

= 1893 Hours

2. What is the average production time?

1893 / 27 = 70.11 Hours

 Example
• Learning percentage: 80%
• First performance time: 10 hrs
• How much time it needs to finish the 2nd,
4th, 8th and 16th repetition?
– 2nd: 10 x 0.8 = 8
– 4th: 8x0.8 = 6.4
– 8th: 6.4x0.8 = 5.12
– 16th: 5.12x0.8 = 4.1
 General formula

1) For the nth unit:

T n = T 1 x nb
b = learning percentage) / ln2
For the 3rd and 4th unit:
T3 = 10x3(ln0.8/ln2) = 7.02
T4 = 10x4(ln0.8/ln2) = 6.40

2) From table: Tn = T1 * coefficient

 Example 2
• We want to produce 20 units. Learning percentage is 80. T1
= 400 hrs.
a) How much is the production time for the 20th unit?
b) What will be the cumulative production time? What is the
average production time?

• T20 = 400*20(ln0.8/ln2) = 152.48

•  T20 = 400*10.485 = 4194
• 4194/20 = 209.7
Mass production and learning curves