Climate Change’ Impacts

Pakistan

Engr. Hazrat Amin

Lecturer, CED, Jalozai campus, UET Peshawar
Climate Variability ???
Climate Shift ???
Climate Change ???
Past Long Term Climate Risk Index
(from 1999 to 2018 annual averages)

Germnanwatch, 2019
What is Climate Change?

 The Global Climate Change will occur as a

result of the changes in balance of heat
taken on and retained by the planet.
 Changes may lead to
● Heat stress
● Natural weather disasters
● Changes in vector-borne diseases
● New infectious disease patterns
● Unreliable crop production & food shortage
● Flooding (McMichael et al., 1996)
Global Warming

Catastrophic climatic events keep on ravaging the whole

planet, annihilating entire villages and towns, and

financially crippling the affected regimes.

Green House Effect

The green house effect is a natural process by which the

earth retains some of the energy, utilizes it to warm
enough to sustain life on it. This process is mediated by
the presence of some gases in the earth’s surroundings,
that form a layer around it, and are known as “Greenhouse
Gases‟.
Source: http://unfccc.int
How it was recognized?

● 1827 - French scientist Jean- Baptiste Fourier

recognizes Greenhouse Effect.

● 1850’s - Irish physicist John Tyndall observes

that slight changes in the composition of the
Earth’s atmosphere could effect global climate
changes and temperature

● 1896 - Arrhenius reinforces Tyndall’s findings

● 1938 - Callendar reinforce Tyndall’s findings

Cont…

● 1938 - Callendar reinforce Tyndall’s findings

● 1958 – Atmospheric measurements initiated in
the Institute of Oceanography, Hawaii,
evolution of climate change field.
● 1979 – First World Climate Conference (WCC)
in Switzerland- Climate change recognized as a
serious problem
● 1988 – Creation of Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
Cont…

● 1990 – IPCC and 2nd WCC call for a global treaty on

climate change/formation of inter-governmental
negotiations committee

● 1992 – UNFCCC

● Meetings of Conference of Parties

● 1997 – Kyoto Protocol

Climate Change & Pakistan

 Pakistan is not the contributor towards “Greenhouse

Gases”, yet it remains one of the most vulnerable
country of the world due to Climate Change and its
Impacts.
 Climate Change has affected Pakistan in the following
manners.
CLIMATIC CATASTROPHES

Pakistan ranks 16th on the Climate Change Vulnerability

Index (CCVI), jumping up 13 positions in one year.

German watch places Pakistan as the “most affected”

country for 2010 and in top 10 (7th) for 1990-2010 by
Climatic Changes and (5th)by 2019.
Cont..

 Climate Changes are costing the economy $14 billion a

year, which is almost 5% of the GDP. According to the
Asian Development Bank, more than 10 million people
have been displaced in Pakistan over the last 2 years due
to these climate related disasters.
Think before you speak

24
Pakistan affected by Climate Change?

One of the most serious issue due to anticipated Climate

Change is the availability of Freshwater resources.

It is also projected to decrease which will lead to

biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for

the population.
Cont...

Being a predominantly agriculture economy, Climate

Change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan

which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production.

 Agriculture – Pakistan’s Perspective

 Contribution to GDP 19.3%

 Population 219 million

 Workforce engaged 40%

 Arable area 22 m ha

 Agricultural Systems Irrigated, Rainfed

 Sub-Sectors Crops, Livestock

 Major Crops Wheat, Rice, Maize, Cotton, Sugarcane

Major Livestock Species Buffalo, Cow, Goat and Sheep

Agriculture Share in GDP

 1949-50 53%
 1980-81 31%
 1990-91 22.84
 2000-01 25%
 2010-11 21.4%
 2019-20 19.3%
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Single factor that is likely to exert adverse

impacts on productive resources and
ultimately on agricultural productivity
 Loss in crop yields
 Shortening of Growing Season Length
 Increased evapotranspiration
 Increased land degradation
 Decreased livestock productivity
 Climate Change Impacts on
Livestock
 Livestock sub-sector plays a significant role in national
economy (58.92 % in agriculture and 11.11 %in GDP)
CC impacts are;
 Physiological stress on animal due to high
temperature
 Productivity losses (milk and meat) due to high
temperature
 Climate-related disease epidemics
 Reduced productivity of fodder crops
 Decreased quality and palatability of forages
 Increased water requirements of animals and fodder
crops
No comprehensive research in Pakistan;
When ambient temperature reached to 32-47º C with a
mean relative humidity of 33-75%, the physiological
norms of the buffalo calves were significantly affected
and their weekly body weight decreased as 43 kg
Impacts of Climate Change on
Land Resources
Land degradation is exacerbated by climate
change :
Water-logging, as a result of excessive rainfall
on soils with impeded drainage
Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from
land surface, due to high temperature and
greater wind velocity
Upstream intrusion of sea water (42,607 ha)
 Land Degradation in Pakistan
14

12 11.7 Land Area: 79.6 million ha

Degraded Land Area: 23.9 million ha

10
Area in Million

6
5.3
Ha

4.8

2.1
2

0
Water Erosion Wind Erosion Salinity/Sodicty Waterlogging

SLMP, 2016-17
Climate Extreme Events

Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy

precipitation events, Hailstorms, Dust
storms, Cyclones, Heat waves

 Cause destruction/loss of habitat

 Cause damage to life and property
 Destroy standing plants
 Major Extremes climate Events in Pakistan
(1990-2016)

Large Scale Flooding 1992, 2003, 2006, 2010-2015

Heavy localized monsoonal
rain causing flooding
Intense Heat waves
Drought
Tornado
1996 (Lahore), 2001
(Islamabad) & 2010 (All
Pakistan including Azad
Kashmir
2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2015,
2016, 2019
1998-2001, 2013-14
28 March, 2001 (Chak
Misran)
 Can you Help us...

Motivation...
FlooDS

 Pakistan's economy has been crippled heavily by

devastating and repetitive floods during the last decade.

 In the past 10 years, Pakistan has been hit by floods

almost every year. However, the floods of 2010 and 2011
have emerged as the biggest catastrophes in the
country's history.
 2010 flood
● 2010 flood remains as one of the biggest tragedies
in the world's history, with 20 million people
affected by it. The floods resulted in approximately
1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and destroyed
more than 1.89 million homes.
 2011 flood
● Although nowhere near the 2010 floods, the 2011
floods also wrecked havoc , and affected 5.3 million
people and 1.2 million homes in Sind, as well as
inundating 1.7 million acres of arable land.
 We have only one world, so
scientific approaches are limited:
Theory: yes
Observations: yes
Experiments: no
Models: yes
Model experiments: yes

Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S3

Droughts

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to the

lack of precipitation. The chief characteristic of a drought is
a decrease of water availability in a particular period and
over a particular area.
 Pakistan's economy has been punched heavily by the
continuous spell of droughts for the last many years,.

 Drought in these areas has reduced the river flows,

resulting in drying up of the irrigation canals, leading to
a severe agricultural deprivation.

 The increased temperatures because of the increased

GHGs as well as a mismanagement of the water
reservoirs need to be blamed for the condition
RISING Temperatures IN PAKISTAN

A rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1°C in the coastal areas

along with a 0.5 to 0.7% increase in solar radiation over
southern half of country has been observed.

In central Pakistan, a 3-5% decrease in cloud cover with

increasing hours of sunshine have also been responsible
for increasing the temperatures.
CONCLUSION

 Pakistan, which is an already resource stressed country,

has been crippled by Climate Change.

 These climatic catastrophes will not die down. Research

studies have concluded that changing weather patterns
will be the foundation for more intense and prolonged
droughts and heat waves.

 Meanwhile, tremendous precipitation events will become

more frequent and future tropical cyclones will become
more strong.
What measures can be taken to cope
with Climate Change?

• Increasing access to high quality information about the

impacts of Climate Change

• Improving technological responses by setting in place to

enhance disaster preparedness

• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to Climate

Change through infra-structural changes
Cont...

 Good governance along with integrating risk

management and adaptation
 Developing new and innovative farm production
practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation
techniques
 Improving forest management and biodiversity
conservation. Urban Forestation
 Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that
they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and
implementation of adaptation
 Mainstreaming Climate Change into development
planning at all scales, levels and sectors.
 Mitigation and Adaptation

 Ideally, adaptation and mitigation should be considered

jointly, as some adaptation measures can contribute to
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while conversely
mitigation measures can be planned to help reduce, and
not inadvertently exacerbate, disaster risks.
Paris Climate Agreement
 Pakistan – Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDC)
Time Span Adaptation Priorities
Climate Priorities

Long- To build a climate resilient society and economy by

term ensuring that climate change is mainstreamed in the
Vision economically and socially vulnerable sectors of the
economy.
Medium To support achievement of our long-term adaptation vision of a climate-
to resilient society, Pakistan will pursue efforts up to 2030 that address the
longterm vulnerability of water, agriculture and infrastructure to climate change
Actions
( Up to
2030)

Near- Led by the Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan shall develop a National
Term Adaptation Plan (NAP) that will create a framework for guiding the
Actions mainstreaming of medium- and long-term climate change concerns into
(2020- national sectoral policies, strategies and programmes.
2025)