The Theory of

Natural Selection
Population Genetics
• is concerned with gene frequencies and genotype
frequencies, and with the process of influencing
these frequencies
• is the most important, most fundamental body of
theory in evolutionary biology
• Evolution: change in allele frequencies within a
population over time
Measuring Frequencies of Genes and Genotype

• Genotype Frequency - is the number of individuals

with a given genotype divided by the total number of
individuals in the population
• Gene/ Allele Frequency – measure the frequency in a
population of a particular gene relative to other gene at
its locus
Measuring Frequencies of Genes and Genotype
Population Genetics Model
1. The first step is to specify how these
genotypes combine to breed (called a
mating role);
2. The second step is to apply the Mendelian
ratios for each type of mating;
3. We then add the frequencies of each
genotype generated from each type of
mating to find the total frequency of the
genotypes among the offspring, at birth, in
the next generation;
4. If the genotypes have different chances of
survival from birth to adulthood, we
multiply the frequency of each genotype at
birth by its chance of survival to find the
frequency among adults.
Hardy-Weinberg Principle

• is a way to measure if populations are evolving or not. It

is a way to compare allele frequencies in a population
overtime. There are two equations that can be used if a
population is in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium
Hardy-Weinberg Principle

Example:
If there are 200 P alleles in
a gene pool and 800 q
alleles, then

0.2 + 0.8 = 1
P q
Hardy-Weinberg Principle

Example:
If there are 200 P alleles in
a gene pool and 800 P
alleles, then

(0.2)² +2(0.2 x 0.8) + (0.8)² = 1

PP Pq qq
Hardy-Weinberg Principle

Five assumptions about the

population
1. Random mating
2.Large or infinite population
3.No mutation
4.No migration
5.No natural selection
Population-Genetic Models of Evolution

• Evolution is usually defined as any change in a

populations genetic composition over time by
Population geneticists
• The four factors that can bring about such change
are:
1. Natural Selection
2. Mutation
3. Random Genetic Drift
4. Migration into or out of the population
Selection at One Locus
• The basic building block of evolution is a single locus
under selection. Think of it as a trait controlled by
only a single gene
• Individuals differ in fitness when they leave different
number of offspring
• When the fitness of at least one genotype is different
from the others, selection occurs
 Selection at One Locus
For example:
Suppose that individuals with the three genotypes have the
following relative chances of survival from birth to the adult stage:
Genotype Chance of Survival
AA, Aa 1
aa 1-s
s= the number between 0 and 1 called selection coefficient
Selection coefficient are expressed as the reduction in fitness relative
to the best genotype
Selection at One Locus
For Example:
A wildflower native to California, the dwarf lupin (Lupinus
nanus) normally bears blue flowers. Occasionally, plants with
pink flowers are observed in wild populations. Flower color is
controlled at a single locus, with the pink allele completely
recessive to the blue. Harding (1970) censused several lupin
populations in the California Coast Ranges. In one population of
lupins at Spanish Flat, California, he found 25 pink flowers and
3291 blue flowers, for a total of 3316.
Selection at One Locus
a. Calculate the expected allele frequencies and genotype frequencies if
the population were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

Let B be the blue allele and b be the pink allele, so p = frequency (B) and q
= frequency (b).
The frequency of bb genotype = 25/3316 = q², so q = √(0.00754) =
0.0868
P = 1 – q, so p = 0.913
freq (BB) = p² = 0.834
freq (Bb) = 2pq = 0.158
Selection at One Locus
b. Harding studied the fertility of lupins by counting number of seed pods
produced per plant in a subsample of the Spanish Flat population. He found
the following:
Mean # pods Number of plants examined
Blue 19.33 39
Pink 13.08 24
Assume that heterozygous are as fit as the homozygous blue lupins, and that
the seeds from both pink and blue lupins all suffer about the same mortality
rate after germinating. Calculate the relative fitness of each genotype
Fitness for BB (WBB) = 1
Fitness for Bb (WBb) = 1
Fitness for bb (Wbb) = 13.08/19.08 = 0.677
Selection at One Locus
c. Predicting quantitively the effects of natural selection on the frequencies
of phenotype in the next generation of lupins.
First, calculate mean fitness:
p² (WBB) + 2pq (WBb) + q² (Wbb) = w-bar
((0.913) ² x 1) + (2 x 0.913 x 0.0868 x 1) + ((0.0868) ² x 0.677) = 0.997
Now divide all terms through by w-bar to get the predictions for the
genotype frequencies after one round of selection:
New frequency (BB) = (0.913) ² x 1 / 0.997 = 0.836
New frequency (Bb) = (2 x 0.913 x 0.0868 x 1) / 0.997 = 0.159
New frequency (bb) = (0.0868) ² 0.677) / 0.997 = 0.00512
Selection at One Locus
• In the pre-industrial revolution the
Example in Nature lichens that grow in trees provided
better camouflage for the light
peppered moth
• Smoke pollution from the industrial
revolution killed these lichens leaving
the tree branches to turn black,
because of these it provided better
camouflage on the black peppered
moth
• Around these time a melanic form
became more common in the
Peppered Moths population of peppered moths
resulting in it becoming a more
dominant gene than the light colored
gene
Mutation-Selection Balance
• is an equilibrium in numbers of deleterious alleles in a
population that occurs when the rate at which deleterious alleles
are created by mutation equals the rate at which deleterious
alleles are eliminated by selection
• Mutation is random
• Selection never eliminates the decreased gene as it will keep
appearing through mutation
• Most mutations are bound to be bad (deleterious)
Mutation-Selection Balance
For example
Tay Sachs, an autosomal recessive genetic disease in humans has a frequency
(q², assuming random mating) of about , assuming random mating. Tay Sachs
sufferers usually die within two years (s≈1). If this disease is at mutation-
selection balance, we can estimate the mutation rate, = .
To solve for q² this equation will be used:

wherein:
is frequency of mutation/mutation rate
s is nearly equal to 1 (s≈1)
=
Migration
• Interchange of the individual between populations is called migration
and this causes change in gene frequency, genetic mean and the
variance of a population
• Migrants must participate in mating to contribute their genes to the
new generations
Migration
For example
Population X has 20 individuals with frequency of the A allele = 0.8.
Population Y has 10 individuals with frequency of the A allele = 0.2.
The two populations mix. What is the frequency of A in the final
population?
XP1 = (20)² x 0.8 = 32A YP2 = (10) ² x 0.2 = 4A
40 – 32 = 8a 20 – 4 = 16a
XYP3 = 36/60 = 0.6
Summary
• In the absence of natural selection and with random mating in a
large population, the genotype frequencies at a locus move in one
generation to the Hardy-Weinberg ration; the genotype frequencies
are then stable
• The fitness of the genotypes can be inferred from the rate of change
of gene frequency in real cases of natural selection
• If a mutation is selected against but keeps on arising repeatedly, the
mutation settles at a low frequency in the population. It is called
selected-mutation balance.
• Migration in the absence of selection, rapidly unifies gene
frequencies in different subpopulations; and it can maintain an allele
that is selected against in a local subpopulation