HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURE

AND PRECIPITATION IN PAKISTAN

THE 12 STEPS OF
RESEARCH
 Backgrou
CLIMATE MODELS nd
base line data future projections

REPRESENATATIVE CONCENTRATION
PATHWAYS
 Identifying the Research
Question

"How have precipitation and temperature patterns in Pakistan evolved, and what
are the projected shifts in the near future, mid-future, and end of the century in
relation to RCPs ?"
 Initial Review of Literature
Article no
1
Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability
in Pakistan
Article no 2
Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated
Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-
SA over Pakistan
Article no 3
Identifying hotspots cities vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan under
CMIP5 climate projections
 Problem
Distillation
"How do observed and projected changes in precipitation and temperature patterns in
Pakistan, spanning the historical period (baseline) to the near future, mid-future, and end
of the century, contribute to our understanding of climate variability?

Additionally, what are the potential implications of these variations, especially in terms of
agriculture and hotspot cities?"
 Formulation of
hypothesis
Hypothesis 1: Changes in Precipitation
Patterns simulated precipitation and the actual observed
There is a significant difference between the stochastically
precipitation during the baseline period, indicating potential strengths or limitations in the simulation model.

Hypothesis 2: Temperature Extremes

and Shifts
Temperature extremes, both daily highs and lows, show significant increases or decreases across different regions
of Pakistan, particularly under different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.

Hypothesis 3: Agricultural Impacts of Climate

There are significant implications for agriculture, Changes
including shifts in precipitation affecting crop patterns and
temperature changes impacting growing seasons, leading to potential challenges for farmers.
 Determining the Basic Research Approach

Quantitative Research Approach:

Characteristics: Involves the collection and analysis of numerical data.
Methods: Surveys, experiments, statistical analysis, and modeling are common quantitative
research methods.
Purpose: Used to quantify relationships, patterns, and trends within data.
 Justification for our
Nature of Data:
case
Quantitative Justification: The data in our research involves numerical values and measurements related to precipitation (in
millimeters), temperature changes (in degrees Celsius), and the number of rainy days. These quantitative metrics are well-suited
for a quantitative research approach, as they can be analyzed statistically to identify patterns, trends, and relationships.

Objective Measurement:
Quantitative Justification: The research aims to measure and quantify specific aspects such as annual precipitation, simulated
precipitation, and temperature changes. The use of computer models and climate simulations further emphasizes the quantitative
nature of the data.

Statistical Analysis:
Quantitative Justification: The presence of statistical information, such as error percentages in simulated models, indicates the
need for statistical analysis. Quantitative research often involves statistical methods to analyze and interpret numerical data,
making it suitable for investigating trends, variations, and the reliability of models.

Data-Driven Hypotheses:
Quantitative Justification: The formulated hypotheses involve statements that can be tested using statistical analyses and
numerical comparisons. For instance, hypotheses related to changes in precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and
 Sample Identification:
Identifying the Procurements and
Sample
Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation
variability in Pakistan
Projected time period
Near future 2011-2030
Mid future 2046-2065,

End of century 2080-

2099
Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Base
Associated
line timeVariations
period of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using
CORDEX-SA
1976 to 2011over Pakistan
(36 years)
Projected time period
Near future 2011-2040
Mid future 2041-2070
End of century 2070-2100
Base line time period
1971 to 2000
Identifying hotspots cities vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan under CMIP5 climate
Projected time period
projections
Near future 2006-2035
Mid future 2041-2070
End of century 2070-2100
Base line time period
 Data Collection
Metrological Plan Authentic
Departments websites
 Instrument Development: Selecting or Developing Data Collection
Climate models, including those like CMIP 5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP 6, are
Instruments
complex computer programs designed to simulate the Earth's climate system.
Simulation of Earth's Components:
Imagine the Earth as a giant puzzle with different pieces like the atmosphere, oceans, land surfaces, and ice sheets.
Climate models simulate how each of these pieces interacts with each other over time.

Grids and Time Steps:

The Earth is divided into a grid, like a big checkerboard. Each square in the grid represents a small piece of the Earth's surface.
The model looks at what's happening in each square at different time steps, like taking snapshots of the Earth's conditions at regular
intervals.

Physics Equations:
The models use complex equations based on the laws of physics to represent how energy, heat, and moisture move and interact in
the atmosphere, oceans, and other Earth components. These equations help predict things like temperature, precipitation, and
wind patterns.

Human and Natural Factors:

Climate models consider both natural factors (like volcanic activity and changes in the sun) and human factors (like greenhouse gas
emissions) that influence the climate. By inputting data on these factors, the model can simulate how they affect the Earth's climate
Validation with Real Data:
continued...
Scientists use real-world data to check if the model's simulations match actual observations of the
climate.
If the model accurately reproduces past climate conditions, it provides more confidence in its ability
to predict future changes.

Ensemble of Models:
CMIP 5 and CMIP 6 involve multiple climate models contributed by different research institutions
worldwide.
By comparing the results from various models, scientists gain a more comprehensive understanding
of the range of possible climate outcomes.

Scenario Exploration:
Scientists run simulations based on different scenarios of future human activities, such as varying
levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
 Analysis Method: Implementing the
Research Plan
Present the findings from the analysis, including changes in annual precipitation,
mean daily precipitation, temperature extremes, and precipitation variations.

1. Annual Precipitation: Over the period from 1976 to

2011, Pakistan received an average of 487.48 mm of
rainfall each year, and there were around 43.54 days in a
year when it rained.

2. Simulated Precipitation: Using a computer model, the

simulated average annual precipitation for Pakistan is
513.70 mm, and it predicts approximately 43.60 wet
days in a year.
 continued...
3. Error in Simulation: The computer model's
predictions for the number of wet days have an
error of less than 2% when compared to the actual
observed values during the baseline period (1976-
2011). This means it's reasonably accurate in
forecasting the number of rainy days.

4. Mean Daily Precipitation: The simulated

average amount of rain per wet day is 11.78 mm
while the actual observed value is 11.70 mm. So,
the model is almost accurate in predicting the daily
rainfall amount.
 Analysis Method: Implementing the
Research Plan
Temperature changes: RCP8.5
• Tmax: The highest temperatures during the day (Tmax) have
increased by as much as 5.1°C. This means that the hottest days are
getting even hotter.
• Tmin: The lowest temperatures during the night (Tmin) have also
changed. Specifically, the 90th percentile of Tmin has increased by
up to 6.5°C. This means that the coldest nights are becoming less
cold.

Precipitation Changes:
• Precipitation: The amount of rainfall is projected to change.
• Semi-arid zones: In areas that are semi-arid (receiving moderate
rainfall), the greatest magnitude of change in precipitation is an
increase of more than 3.3 mm per day. This means that on average,
 Analysis Method: Implementing the
Research Plan

1. Projected Temperature Changes: The average

temperature in Pakistan is expected to increase
significantly. Under RCP4.5, it is projected to rise by
2.6°C by the end of the century, and under RCP8.5, it
could increase by 5.1°C.
The northern regions of Pakistan, including North
Pakistan (NP), Monsoon Region (MR), and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP), are likely to experience the highest
2. Projected increases.
temperature Precipitation Changes: Overall, Pakistan is
expected to become wetter in the future, particularly in the
Monsoon Region (MR).
The study found a positive correlation between
temperature and precipitation changes across the country,
meaning that as temperatures increase, so does the amount
Hyderabad is projected to become the hottest city in Pakistan by the end of the century, followed by Jacobabad,
Bahawalnagar, and Bahawalpur.
The hottest cities are mainly located in the southern regions of
Pakistan.
The wettest cities are Murree, Balakot, and Muzaffarabad, all situated in the Monsoon
Region (MR).
Conversely, the city of Dalbandin, followed by Khanpur and Jacobabad, is likely to
experience dry conditions.
 Implementing the Research Plan

Emphasizing the integration of multiple studies to provide a

comprehensive understanding of precipitation and temperature
variations in Pakistan.

DATA from CMIP can be compared for better result

interpretation
 Results Interpretation: Interpreting the
Results
1. Simulated Precipitation (Nabeel and Athar 2019):
Reliable precipitation simulations are crucial for agriculture. Accurate predictions aid in planning
irrigation schedules, crop selection, and resource management.

2. Temperature and Precipitation Changes (Haider and Ullah 2021):

Increased temperature extremes may affect growing seasons and crop yields. Changes in
precipitation, especially in semi-arid zones, can influence water availability for agriculture.

3. Hotspot Cities and Climate Conditions (Ali, Kiani et al. 2020):

Hottest cities may experience challenges like heat stress on crops and livestock. Wetter cities may
face risks of flooding and soil erosion. Dry conditions in certain cities may pose challenges for water-
dependent agriculture.
 THANKYOU
Any Questions ?