Modernisation theories

• The linear view of democracy as end point of

modernisation

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

• Democracy could only be possible after passing
some threshold of development
• The trade-off view
• The "sacrifices" view
• "Blood sweat and tears" or the BLAST model - Amartya Sen
• Fully Belly Thesis “People can’t eat democracy”
Development versus Democracy
• Authoritarian advantage
• Efficiency

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• Political Stability – national unity argument
• Long-time perspective due to freedom from populist and
myopic demands
• Higher revenue collection capacity
• Historical evidence of Developmental authoritarian
regimes –
• the India China comparison
• The East Asian Miracle economies
• The Soviet Exoerience
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Domestic Politics
• The nation-building quest for unity
• Conflation of unity with uniformity
• Overthrow of nationalist movements by military rulers
• Authoritarian developmentalism:

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

• “Silent: Development in Progress”
The Authoritarian advantage once again

• Interpretation of the role of developmental state as

inherently authoritarian
• The Pinochet and Chicago Boys link-up and the view that

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

only authoritarian regimes could implement SAP
• The developmental state literature was used to suggest that
East Asia was following the correct path - development then
democracy. Africans were seen as sequencing the process
wrongly
• Initial suspicion that democracy would undermine
adjustment
Case for democracy
• New Empirical evidence refutes the “law-like” trade-off between
on democracy and growth But Suggests that democracies at low

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level of income risk reversal
• While democracies may not perform spectacularly they do not
fail as egregiously as authoritarian regimes
• There have been “democratic developmental States
• Two of the frequently cited are Africa – Botswana and Mauritius
• Development requires strong states but strong states are not
necessarily authoritarian states
• Authoritarian versus infrastrucultural power
• Self-corrective capacity of democracies
Inherited weakened states
• The aftermath of adjustment and retrenchment
• Democratisation has focussed on formal issues of holding
elections and paid less attention to substantive issues of well
being
• Reduced extractive capacity and problems of meeting of social
needs of newly empowered groups
SAP and Democracy
• Trade-off argument
• Democracies prone to Rent-seeking and policy capture
• Populist pressures for consumption
• Coordination problems
• Instability of policy
• Political business cycles
The new embrace of democracy

• End of Cold War and neoliberal triumphalism

• Fukuyama: End of History” and Mrs. Thatcher’s insistence

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

“There is no alternative”
• Adoption by New democracies of orthodoxy policies
facilitated conditionalities
• New understanding of “Development as Freedom” a view
expressed in 1960s by Arthur Lewis
• Evidence of no ”trade-offs” between democracy and growth
•
Ideological stance of new democracies
• Many were orthodox in reaction to the interventionism of
their authoritarian predecessors
• Some equated free markets with democracy
• Although oppositions to orthodox policies played a major role,
the political leadership that emerged were middle class in
favour of markets
• Some of these were former bureaucrats or politicians turned
businessmen and women
How are African democracies doing?
• They are generally doing better than their authoritarian
predecessor
• But are they doing better than their contemporaries?
Many democracies are moving away
from orthodox policies

• Over time democratic politics works against formulaic

orthodox and tend to move context specific policies

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

• Some of the new democracies are benefitting from
the recent resource boom which renders the traction
of conditionalities less effective
• The shift from the more formalistic aspects of
democracy towards substantive issues of social justice
The accumulation challenge
• In a capitalist economy high growth calls for high profitability
• The challenge is to ensure that profits accruing to capitalists
are productively and not consumes of repatriated
• No clear “developmental pacts” have emerged
Democracy and Growth
• Through the analysis of the latest economic and political data,
which include up to 43 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the
period of 1982-2012, they find strong evidence that
democracy is positively associated with economic growth
• And that this ‘democratic advantage’ is more pronounced for
those African countries that haveremained democratic for
longer periods of time
• .
New challenges

• Over time democratic politics works against

formulaic orthodox and tend to move context

Thandika Mkandawire, LSE London

specific policies
• Some of the new democracies are benefitting from
the recent resource boom which renders the traction
of conditionalities less effective
• The shift from the more formalistic aspects of
democracy towards substantive issues of social
justice
• Democracy is superior to autocracy only when structural
factors, such as external threats or natural resource intensity,
are not favorable to growth.
• Conversely, where structural factors are conducive to growth,
autocracies are likely to perform better or equally well as
democracies.