Housing prices

in the
Netherlands:
bubble or not?
Yasmin Mutsaers
December 21 2023
Development of
housing prices
in
the Netherlands,
last 30 years

Average house value in the Netherlands. Source: ‘2023 Q2 WOX Kwartaalbericht | Calcasa’.
https://calcasa.nl/onderzoek/2023-q2-wox-kwartaalbericht/.
 Theory of housing prices and
(in)equilibria

Unstable and stable equilibria in the housing market: The S- A tipping point in the housing market. Source: 17. The Great Depression,
shaped PDC. Source: ‘17. The Great Depression, Golden Golden Age, and Global Financial Crisis’.
Age, and Global Financial Crisis’. https://www.core- https://www.core-econ.org/the-economy/v1/book/text/17.html.
econ.org/the-economy/v1/book/text/17.html.
Development of interest rates in The
Netherlands since 2015

The blue line shows

house price growth;
the orange line
shows mortgage rates
in percentages.

Housing prices drop, interest rates rise. Source: ‘De woningmarkt│De Nederlandsche Bank’.
https://www.dnb.nl/actuele-economische-vraagstukken/woningmarkt/.
Housing prices in • Housing prices in the Netherlands are high,
because of:
• Low interest rates;
the Netherlands • Broad standards for mortgage lending;

2023: • In combination with relatively low (and

low growth) of supply.

bubble or not? • Decline of housing prices since August 2022,

because of:
• (slowly) rising interest rates;
• (slowly) limiting of mortgage lending
standards;
• Restrictions of fiscal advantages for
buyers and owners of houses.
Conclusion
• Several characteristics of a bubble, but:
• Demand is higher than the supply of houses;
• governmental changes in order to prevent collapses.
Used sources
•‘17. The Great Depression, Golden Age, and Global Financial
Crisis’.
https://www.core-econ.org/the-economy/v1/book/text/17.html.
•‘2023 Q2 WOX Kwartaalbericht Calcasa’.
https://calcasa.nl/onderzoek/2023-q2-wox-kwartaalbericht/.
•‘De woningmarkt’.
https://www.dnb.nl/algemeen-nieuws/dnbulletin-2021/vier-
ingredienten-voor-een-evenwichtigere-woningmarkt/.
•‘De woningmarkt│De Nederlandsche Bank’.
https://www.dnb.nl/actuele-economische-vraagstukken/woning
markt/.