An introduction to

graph interpretation

crisis
Graph interpretation (suggested «steps»)

1. What is this graph about? (what, when, where, who)

2. Check the axis
3. Identify general trends, volatility
4. Go into specifics
5. How are things evolving (rate of change)?
6. Identify and comment relevant sub-periods and/or groups
7. Compare
8. If there is anything of relevance, make note

Additional comments
1. What´s the graph about?

• Look for thing like:

• Title (sometimes banners or comments),
• data labels ,
• sources, etc.

• Start by rewriting those in a “conversational” way

• Check: is the variable represented easily understood?

Billions of metric tons of CO2 emissions, by income level

This graph shows the

evolution of CO2
emissions, measured in
billions of metric tons,
in the period 1960 to
2015, grouping
countries by income
levels. According to the
data provided by the
World Development
indicators…
2. Check the axis

• Often graphs have an x and y axis. If not, the information will probably be
provided in text

• Make sure to understand what´s represented

• an amount (in which unit?)
• a percentage
• a percentage change…

• This seems easy but it´s one of the most common mistakes when interpreting a
graph

• Some special cases:

• Two x or y axis
• log scale
The left y-axis shows the
number of mobile cellular
subscriptions (in
millions). The information
is represented in the
stocked bar charts
(orange for developed
nations and green for
developing nations). The
right y-axis
(corresponding to the line
graph) shows the number
of subscriptions per 100
inhabitants in the world.
3. Identify general trends and volatility

• Discuss the general trend:

• Up / down / no significant changes?

• Discuss the volatility, and whether it changes over time

Source: World Bank Data Bank

4. Specifics

• General trends are not very informative. Make sure to talk about specifics
in the graph

• If the y axis (or other graph item) has numbers, you ought to use them
• Can you see an average/median value?
• Are there significant maxima and minima (both local and global)?
• Is any of the data worth mentioning for another reason? (example: the year a law
changed, for example)

• Compare magnitudes: over time and across series

Example: some specifics

This line graph shows the evolution of the potato

harvest in Country A during the period 1910 to
1960. On average, potato harvests in this region are
around 55 tons, but we can observe some
fluctuations during the period. The smallest amount
harvested was observed in the year 1930 (35Tons),
but it more than doubled for year 1940, when the
harvest reached its maximum value for the period
(80 tons)
 5. Be specific about rates of growth / variation

• When a time dimension is included, the graph is meant to provide information

about how the variable changes over time. You covered the most basic info when
you identified the general trend, but that´s not enough. Otherwise, we wouldn´t
use a graph, but a much simpler data visualization:

+ 7%
 5. Be specific about rates of growth / variation

• In a line graph, look at the slope.

 5. Be specific about rates of growth / variation

• In other charts, compare sizes/ magnitudes / heights and see how

they change over time.

Estimated peak population According to data from the Famine Early

in need of food assistance
worldwide (in millions)
Warning System Network, emergency food
assistance needs have increased
dramatically over the short time period
covered in the graph.
Between 2015 and 2016 alone, the number
of people who required aid to cover this
basic need grew by 22 million. By 2017, an
estimated 83 million people worldwide
required emergency food assistance - over
70% more than two years before.
6. Identify and describe subperiods and/or groups

• Can you see different “parts” to the graph? Make note of

them, and then describe them separately like you would a
graph

Five periods may be distinguished in this graph: “X”

was rather constant in the period year 1 to year 9
with an average value of about 450 units. Then it
increased sharply between year 10 and year 12, when
it reached its maximum (700 units). This period was
followed by a sharp decrease, when X fell by 600
units. X was in free fall until year 15, when a
sustained recovery started. By year 21 X stabilized to
its average pre-year 9 levels
6. Identify and describe subperiods and/or groups

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
7. Compare

• Often graphs provide several series together. Usually, that´s to make

7. Compare
comparisons easier. Avoid describing series separately, without making
references to the other information in the graph.

The geographic distribution of emissions is unequal, with low income

Billions of metric tons of CO2
emissions, by income level
countries contributing a negligible amount through the period. The other
three income groups have seen their total emissions increase, although the
evolution is unequal across groups.
Lower middle income countries emitted roughly constant amounts of CO2
(about 1B) in the first half of the period, increasing to 2B in the mid 80s.
High income countries emitted the vast majority of CO2 in 1960 (about 7
millions, more than tripling the 2 billions of the second largest contributor --
upper middle income countries). Their emissions have risen steadily over the
55 year period, going from roughly 7 B to about 15B.
The largest increase in emissions may be observed in upper middle income
countries, which started out with a modest contribution to total emissions,
but have seen this figure multiply by 9. In 2015, these countries emitted
about 18 billions metric tons of CO2, making them the top contributor to
total emissions, closely followed by upper income countries (which emitted
about 15B)
8. Context: important information

• If there is anything relevant that may be common knowledge but is not in the
graph, mention it in your discussion.

Examples:
- A line graph with a time dimension that includes the period for the financial
crisis or WWII.
- A map that includes North and South Korea.
Additional comments
Be careful with the scale in your axis

What´s the effect of tax policy on federal revenue?

The log scale

How would you describe the evolution of the SP500 index over this 50 year period?

source

When you use the log scale, equal distances on the vertical axis indicate equal
percentage increases or ratios, not equal amounts!
Do not attribute causation too easily

• Just because you observe a difference between two groups doesn´t

necessarily mean they are really different in some underlying characteristic

• Just because two variables seem to be related doesn´t necessarily mean that
one causes the other
Do not attribute causation too easily

Reverse causation

Omitted variable bias

Do not attribute causation too easily

40 percent of people think Mickey and Minnie are married.

But among those who have done something embarrassing in
public as a result of losing a bet, only 19 percent think
Mickey and Minnie are married.

Source

Spurious correlation

Source
Via www.huffingtonpost.com
Double Y axis

• Graphs with two vertical axis can be useful when plotting data about two
different variables, but you do need to be extra careful. Sometimes axis can be
manipulated to make you think of causation. Remember, correlation does not
imply causation.
Bonus

• Was the graph appropriate for the information?

• Issues with graph choice & formatting:

• The disputed pie: often used to mislead

• Careful with bin graphs (shapes instead of bars, bar width..)

• Was the Y axis cut? Why?

• Was the dual axis really needed? Is it being manipulative?

• Barplots with curved lines are misleading

• Bubble charts look nice, but are hard to interpret

• 3D in graphs is often misleading

Some graph types

Source
Some graph types

Sourc
e