4th World Conference on Climate Change, Rome October 19-21, 2017

Climate Change:
Evidence of Holocene high-amplitude events
Nils-Axel Mörner
morner@pog.nu

Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden

In geology we have a long-term tradition to base our statements and

conclusions on observational facts in nature itself.
When it comes to climate change during the Holocene, we have very fine
observational records in Scandinavia giving evidence of high-amplitude changes
and past temperature 2.5 °C warmer than today.
 Comparing the northern limit of fossil
Corylus (hazel) with its present limit,
Gunnar Anderson was in 1902 able to
conclude that Mid-Holocene temperature
was 2.4 °C warmer than today

+2.4 °C
In the Late Stone Age

This became a well-known fact in Swedish science

(geology, geography, botany, archaeology)
 With stable isotope analyses from Lake Tingstäde Träsk on the Island of Gotland, Mörner and Wallin (1978)
presented a continual temperature record for the last 11,000 years. Present day temperature was reached ~9500
BP. Th Holocene climate optimum was +2.5 °C (in the late Stone Age)
Temperature inferred from pollen data from a lake in southern Sweden
Greenland, GISP-2 temperature record for the Holocene
from: Patrick Moore, 2015
Climate change is something perfectly characteristic for Planet Earth:
Every geologist knows that – and no one denies it.

From Easterbrook, 2010

 Raised bogs
consist of white moss peat and are fed by rain water
They grow upwards and can reach several meters above the surrounding terrains

At warm periods with low precipitation the growth suffer

and may even stop and the bog surface develop into a recurrence surface
A raised bog in southern Sweden
with the RY-3 recurrence surface well identified
(first identified in Sweden by Nathorst in 1872)
marking the Sub-Boreal/Sub-Atlantic boundary
 Recurrence surfaces in peat bogs

So-called “recurrence surfaces” in peat bogs provide evidence of dry and

warm events of multi-decadal duration (50 years, or so),
recorded at

1050 AD
500 AD
550 BC
1200 BC
2300 BC
These events were warmer and dryer than today.

In the 18th century our bogs were approaching such an event.

Today, our bogs are not (yet) recording any recurrence surface growth.
Älgare Mosse
in SW Sweden
RY-1 AD 1050
with the degree of
humification of the
Sphagnum peat
RY-2 AD 500

RY-3 BC 550

RY-4 BC 1200

RY-5 BC 2300

Recurrence surfaces in raised bogs

are multi-decadal (around 50 years)
periods of strong heat (warmer than today)
very little rain; i.e. draughts.
Today, we have not reached into any such
bog growth situation
 Recurrence surfaces in
bogs (RY) vs periods of
regional draught (warm
and very dry events) with
falls in local sea level
(Stockholm area).

Today,
we seem far from any
similar warming event

The local “eustatic” changes in sea level plotted against the well-dated bog stratigraphy of Aaby (1976) with the
regional RY-surfaces emphasised. The vector line indicates a perfect correlation between rapid sea level
regressions and regional RY-surfaces (red squares). This implies that the rapid regressions (following PTM-7, 9 and
10) were the function of short periods of extreme regional dryness (Mörner, 1999), known as “recurrence
surfaces” (RY) in bogs.
 from: Humlum 2017 – Climate4you, August 2017

Lead Ocean change in temperature

& Land change in temperature
Lag Atmospheric change in CO2 content
 The Sun (of course) – not CO2

Planetary beat and the spectrum of terrestrial variables affected

(from Mörner, 2012)
(also: Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning, Nova 2015)
 CONCLUSIONS

The records here discussed indicate that

the present, post-1980, warming by no means is unique;
either in amplitude or in rate.

Consequently,
there is no strong reason (if any) to advocate
an anthropogenic forcing for the present warming.
 The Abstract of this paper
can be found in the Abstract volume
and on ResearchGate
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312595683

The pptx-file of the present talk

is uploaded on ResearchGate