FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

The purpose of frequency analysis is to estimate

frequency of occurrence of various hydrologic
parameters such as floods, droughts, or storms of
maximum rainfall. Frequency Analysis is based on
statistical methods. Using statistical techniques,
hydrologic parameters are predicted from available
record of data,. Using these parameters, the data is
extrapolated for future forecasting. The accuracy of
prediction depends on accuracy and correctness of
available records. An objective of frequency analysis
may be the estimation of maximum possible discharge
of a stream or river that will be encountered after a
certain time period. Such information is required for
design of hydraulic structures (dams, barrages,
culverts, bridges, etc.), reservoirs, floodways, irrigation
systems, river improvement works, flood protection
schemes and development of water resources.
The prediction may not be good due to the following factors

a. Non-cyclic nature of random events like floods and droughts,

b. Analysis based on limited data, and

c. Data being non-homogeneous

Return Period

It is an average value of interval of occurrence of hydrologic outcome. It

is an average and not the exact period of becoming equal to or
exceedance from a certain value of a hydrologic quantity. For example a
flood of say 50,000 cumecs that has been exceeded on the average once
in 20 years has a probability of exceedance from this value in anyone year
equal to 1120. This does not mean that every 20 years a flood of this
magnitude will occur. Return period is also called recurrence interval.