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Lecture 4 - Analysis of Cost Estimation
Lecture 4 - Analysis of Cost Estimation
Lecture # 4
Analysis of Cost Estimation
INSTRUCTIONAL LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, students should be able to understand the
following:
Introduction
Factors Affecting Investment
Estimation of Capital Investment
Classifications of Capital Cost Estimates Cost Indexes
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment Estimating Cost by Scaling
Cash Flow for Industrial Operations Estimating fixed costs
Direct, Indirect, Fixed, & Variable cost
Components of capital cost
2
COST ESTIMATION
Equipment cost
Delivery charges
Installation costs
Insurance costs (premiums)
Training of personnel for equipment use.
Capital Cost Estimation
Capital Cost pertains to the costs associated with construction of new plant or
modifications to an existing chemical manufacturing plant.
Initial Costs
Operating Costs
Maintenance Costs
Product Costs
Cost of Capital (Interest Lost)
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Cumulative Cash Position
Project Cash Flow and Economic Evaluation
The best methods of assessing the profitability
Consider Curve 1 of alternatives are based on projections of the
A = Start of the project cash flows during the project life.
.B = Design and other preliminary work
C = buildings, plant and equipment
income taxes
In the production
Breakeven = Point when Total revenues (R) =
Total costs (TC)
Cash flows =Total income (R)
Operating costs (TC)
Gross or Total profit (R - TC)
Depreciation charge (d)
Net profit (R - TC – d)
Project Cash Flow
• The flow of cash for the fixed capital investment is usually spread over
the entire construction period.
• Because income from sales and cost of operations may occur on an
irregular time basis, a reservoir of working capital must be available to
meet these requirements.
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Direct, Indirect, Fixed, & Variable cost
Indirect expenses
administrative salaries, product sales, distribution cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Breakdown of fixed capital investment items for a chemical process Table 6-1
16
Fixed and Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Total Cost
The general cost
Total Cost (TC) is the a l c ost equation:
The activity (X) is the Tot
dependent variable. independent variable. Y = a + bX
Variable cost
in cost terms
The intercept term (FC) is The X term coefficient (V)
Fixed cost TC = FC + VX
the estimate of fixed costs. is the estimate of variable
cost per unit of activity,
the slope of the cost line.
Activity
Example:
A college student pays SR1000 per month to rent a two-bedroom apartment, and SR500 for other monthly
expenses. The monthly rent will be a fixed cost. The costs for other monthly expenses would be a variable cost.
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The linear cost function
Example
22
Linear Breakeven Analysis
Total income
Making is better Revenues (R)
Cost
Profits (P) : P = R – TC
Breakeven: P = 0 => R = TC
Product Quantity (Q)
Q’
Breakeven chart for chemical processing plant
Maximum
gross earnings
COMPONENTS OF CAPITAL COST
Capital cost for new design
The total investment required for a new plant (design) can be broken down into
five main parts:
We want to estimate the entire amount of money that the investor has to put into
the project to get it started. This has several components:
Chapter2: Plant Location & plant Layout
COMPONENTS OF CAPITAL COST
⟶ CT = CF +CW
Total Capital Investment (TCI or CT)
25×100/109
8.3×100,000/22.9
9.2×36,000/8.3
Working Capital, WC or CW
• The working capital CW, is necessary for the operation of the plant.
• The working capital CW in an industrial plant consists of the total amount of money
invested in:
1. Raw materials;
2. Supplies carried in stock (Usually 1-month supplies valued at delivery prices);
3. Finished semi-finished products (for 1 month’s production);
4. Accounts receivable payable;
5. Cash kept on hand for monthly payment of operating expenses (salaries, wages and
raw materials purchases)
6. Accounts payable
7. Taxes payable
WC = varies with different companies;
Most chemical plants used 10-20% (it may increase to as much as 50% or more for companies
producing products of seasonal demand)
COST INDEXES
Cost indexes can be used to give a general estimate from published data;
Cost index is based on time in the past (Historic Cost Data);
An index value for a given time showing the cost at that time relative to a certain base
time.
Cn = Ck (In /Ik )
(0.35*115.9)+(0.35*127)+(0.2*121.5)+(0.1*109.8)=
COST INDEXES
All cost indices should be used with caution
and judgment. The longer the period over
which the correlation is made, the more
unreliable the estimate.
Between 1970 and 1990, prices rose
dramatically. Prices then grew at a more or
less steady 2 to 3% per year until 2003, when
high demand for fuels projects and high
energy prices caused another period of
steeper price inflation.
For use with chemical-plant investment
estimates, the Marshall and Swift equipment
cost indexes and the Chemical Engineering
plant cost indexes are recommended.
COST INDEXES – Using Excel
Chemical engineering plant cost index, 1957-59 = 100
Year Cost-index
1980 261
1981 267
1982 314
index
1983 317 600
1984 323
1985 325
1986 318
550
1987 324
1988 343 500
1989 355
1990 358
Cost index
1991 361 450
1992 358
1993 359
1994 368
400
1995 381
1996 382 350
1997 387
1998 390
300 5 4 3 2
1999
2000
391
394
y = -0.0002x + 1.6858x - 6723.7x + 1E+07x - 1E+10x + 5E+12
2001 394 250 2
2002 396 R = 0.9662
2003 402
2004 444 200 Years
2005 468
2006 500 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013
2007 525
2008 575
2009 522
2010 551
2011 565 Jan.'11
`
EXAMPLE
A certain index for the cost of purchasing and installing utility boilers is
keyed to 1974, where its baseline value was set at 100. Company X
installed a 50,000 lb/hr in 1989 for $350,000 when the index had value
of 312. This same company must install another boiler of the same size in
1996. The index in 1996 is 468.
What is the cost of new boiler?
The purchased cost of a heat exchanger of 500 m2 area in 1990 was $25,000.
a. Estimate the cost of the same heat exchanger in 2010 using the two indices
Marshal and Swift Index, and Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index.
b. Compare the results.
SOLUTION
From Tables:
1990 2010
Marshal and Swift Index 915 1473.3
Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index 358 550.8
Processing equipment
Raw-materials handling and storage equipment
Finished-products handling and storage equipment
By taking logs, we can usually get a reasonably good correlation over a few orders
of magnitude
n
Cost A Size A
= Xn =>
Cost B Size B
The value of n traditionally taken as 0.6; the well known six-tenths factor rule.
Predictions can be made using the six-tenths factor rule.
Use only in the absence of other information.
Do not use beyond 10-fold range of capacity.
Typical exponents in the six-tenths factor rule
(n)
Minimum
Maximum
Investment Cost Per Unit Capacity
Estimating Equipment Cost by Scaling
Figure 6.5 presents a log-log plot of capacity versus cost for shell and
tube heat exchangers, the straight line with a slope =0.6
EXAMPLE 6-2
The purchased cost of a 0.2-m3 glass-lined, jacketed reactor was $10,000 in 1991.
Estimate the purchased cost of a similar 1.2-m3, glass-lined, jacketed reactor in
1996. Use the annual Chemical Engineering plant cost index to update the
purchase cost of the reactor.
M
Q
CE CB f M f PfT
QB
Note, the application of the factors from Tables 2.2 to 2.4 should only be applied to the equipment and pipework
Correction factor for design pressure, fP and temperature, fT
Note, the application of the factors from Tables 2.5 to 2.6 should only be applied to the equipment and
pipework
A closer approximation for this relationship which involves the direct and
indirect plant costs has been proposed as:
The ratio R, defined as the capacity of the new facility divided by the capacity of the
old, raised to a power X.
f = a lumped cost index factor relative to the original facility cost, it is the product of a
geographic labor cost index, area labor productivity index, and a material and
equipment cost index.
D = the direct cost for previously installed facility
I = the indirect cost for previously installed facility
Location (geographic) Factors
Capital Investment
Location (geographic)
Factors
If a given chemical process plant is erected near Dallas, Texas (Southwest area) with
a construction labor cost of $100,000 what would be the construction labor cost of
an identical plant if it were to be erected at the same time near Los Angeles (Pacific
Coast Area) for the time when the factors given in Table 6.12 apply?
SOLUTION
If the process plant described in Example 6-1 was erected in the Dallas area for a
fixed-capital investment of $436,000 in 1990, estimate the fixed-capital investment
in 1998 for a similar process plant located near Los Angeles with twice the process
capacity but with an equal number of process units. Use the power factor method
to evaluate the new fixed-capital investment, and assume the factors given in Table
6-12 apply.
SOLUTION
Types of Equipment:
1. Processing equipment
Involves costs for labor, foundations, supports, platforms, construction expenses, etc.
There is wide variations of installation labor cost depending on equipment size.
Buildings
• Buildings including services, consist of labor, materials and supplies. Plumbing, heating,
ventilation are included.
Yard Improvements
Fencing, grading, roads,
sidewalks, railroad sidings,
landscaping: 10-20% of the
delivered purchased
equipment cost (2-5 % of fixed
capital investment).
Service Facilities
Utilities for supplying steam,
water, power, compressed air
and fuel. Also includes shop,
first aid, cafeteria...30-80% of
the delivered purchased
equipment cost (55% on
average for plant handling
solid/liquids). This is equivalent
to 8-20 % - 14% average - of
fixed capital investment)
Health, Safety, and environmental Functions
• See previous table. This is an increasingly important issue. Pollution mitigation is
sometimes the driving force for new process development.
Land
• Cost factor per acre as high as 30-50% between a rural district and highly industrialized
area. Average land cost for industrial plants amount to 4-8% of the delivered purchased
equipment cost (1-2 % of fixed capital investment).
• By law, land cost cannot be depreciated – not included in the fixed-capital investment.
Legal Expenses
• 1-3 % of fixed capital investment
Construction expenses
• Indirect cost associated to temporary construction, and operation, construction tools
and rentals, home office personnel, construction payroll, travel and living, taxes and
insurance, and other construction overhead. 8-10 % of fixed capital investment.
Contractor’s Fee
• 2-8% of direct plant cost or 1.5-6% of fixed capital investment
Contingencies
• Unexpected events and changes (storms, floods, strikes, etc.)
• 5-15 % of fixed capital investment (8 % average).
GROSS PROFIT, NET PROFIT, AND CASH FLOW
Gross profit (also called gross earnings) = the product sales revenue - the total product cost.
Gross profit is expressed both with and without depreciation included as follows:
where
gj is gross profit, depreciation not included, in year j
sj is the total income
coj is the cost for operation (not including depreciation)
where
Gj is gross profit, depreciation included, in year j
dj is the depreciation charge
GROSS PROFIT, NET PROFIT, AND CASH FLOW
Net profit (also called net earnings) = the amount retained of the profit after income taxes
have been paid:
where
F is the fixed income tax rate
NPJ is the net profit in year j
Free On Board (FOB) means the manufacturer pays for loading charges onto a shipping truck, railcar, barge
or ship, but not freight or unloading charges.
To obtain a delivered cost requires typically 5 to 10% to be added to the FOB cost.
The delivery cost depends on location of the equipment supplier, location of site to be delivered, size of the
equipment, and so on.
The cost of the services (utilities and off-sites) ranges typically from 20 to 40% of the total installed cost of
the battery limits plant
Summary
Cost Components in Capital Investment