Dr Ansumana Bockarie

 Definitions of populations and demography

 Descriptions and measures of populations
 Population dynamics and projections
 Demographic Transitions
• A group of individuals living in a particular area.
• Individuals that interact while seeking resources
and in producing offspring.
• Members of a group that are subject to the same
local conditions of the environment.
• Members of a single species.
Individuals in a population may be distributed
according to 3 basic patterns of dispersion:

* Random
* Uniform
* Clumped
•What?
Scattered; no regularity
and affinity

• Why?
Environment uniform;
individuals solitary
•What?
About equal distance apart;
regular with no affinity

•Why?
Resource competition;
antagonism
• What?
Grouped in some places,
absent in others;
irregular with affinity

•Why?
Resources patchy;
individuals aggregate
1. Subdivide an area into
equal sized plots.
2. Randomly sample a
known proportion of the
area.
3. Calculate the average
number of individuals
per plot.
4. Multiply this average
times the number of
plots in the area.
 The plot method is most accurate when
distribution of individuals is either uniform or
random. Clumped distributions of individuals are
highly subject to error.
 Larger sample sizes provide the more accurate
estimates.
 The study of how and why the number of individuals
change over time.
 Changes in abundance are made through comparison of
direct counts or estimates in numbers of individuals.
 Changes in density or numbers of individuals per unit
area or volume are often used where population sizes are
very large or difficult to sample.
 New individuals are added to a population
by NATALITY (BIRTHS) or
IMMIGRATION (IN MOVEMENT).
 Existing individuals are removed from a
population by MORTALITY (DEATHS) or
EMIGRATION (OUT MOVEMENT).
 If natality (births) and immigration (in
movement) exceed mortality (deaths) and
emigration (out movement), then populations
increase.
 If mortality (deaths) and emigration (out
movement) exceed natality (births) and
immigration (in movement), then populations
decrease.
 If natality (births) and immigration (in
movement) equals mortality (deaths) and
emigration (out movement), then populations are
stationary; there is no increase or decrease in
number.
 Stationary populations are rare, but minor
fluctuations around a mean or average population
size is common.
 Is the scientific study of human populations .
Achille Guillard first used the title on his book:
“Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Demographie
Comparee”.
 Two Greek roots:
 demos (people)
 graphy (branch of knowledge regarding a particular
science in this case, human populations).
 Guillard then defined demography as: ‘the
mathematical knowledge of populations, their
general movements, and their physical, civil,
intellectual and moral state’
 A study of deaths, births and movements and
predictions of how these factors determine the
size and structure of populations through time.
 Involves construction of life tables, survivorship
curves, fecundity tables and calculation of
reproductive output.
Can be made using:
1. Life table and
reproductive outputs.
2. Age structures.
3. Mathematical models that
incorporate birth rates, death
rates and doubling times.
 Life tables are constructed from age specific
deaths. lx is the proportion of individuals
surviving to a given age.
 Age specific fecundity. mx is the number of
female births to females of a given age.
 Net reproductive output, Ro , is sum lx mx over all
age classes.
The following rules can be used to determine if a
population is stationary, increasing or decreasing.
The rules are:
 If R = 1, then population is stationary.
o

 If Ro > 1, then population is growing.

 If Ro < 1, then population is declining.
 A device for showing mortality changes associated with
an age interval (X).
 The number of deaths at a given age (DX) is recorded.
 The number of survivors at the beginning of an age
interval (SX) is determined.
 The proportion of “newborns” that survive to a given age
interval (lX) is calculated.
X (AGE) DX SX
O-1 500 1,000
1-2 200
2-3 100
3-4 100
4-5 100
5
X (AGE) DX SX
O-1 500 1,000
1-2 200 500
2-3 100
3-4 100
4-5 100
5
X (AGE) DX SX
O-1 500 1,000
1-2 200 500
2-3 100 300
3-4 100
4-5 100
5
X (AGE) DX SX
O-1 500 1,000
1-2 200 500
2-3 100 300
3-4 100 200
4-5 100 100
5 0
 The proportion of live births that survive to
the beginning of any age interval is defined
as age specific survivorship (lX).
 The proportion of the original population
alive at age X0 is always 100% or 1.00.
Thus, l0 = 1.00
 lX for any subsequent age interval is S x/S0.
 X DX SX lX
O-1 500 1,000 1.00
1-2 200 500 500/1000
2-3 100 300
3-4 100 200
4-5 100 100
5 0
 X DX SX lX
O-1 500 1,000 1.00
1-2 200 500 0.50
2-3 100 300 300/1000
3-4 100 200
4-5 100 100
5 0
 X DX SX lX
O-1 500 1,000 1.00
1-2 200 500 0.50
2-3 100 300 0.30
3-4 100 200 0.20
4-5 100 100 0.10
5 0 0
 The proportion of individuals living to various
ages is the survivorship of a population.
 A survivorship curve is constructed by plotting
age specific survivorship (lx) and age (X).
 Survivorship curves indicate those ages at which
mortality is high.
 Some juvenile
mortality

 Secure middle age

 High mortality at old

age
 Some to substantial
juvenile mortality

 Constant mortality
thereafter
 Heavy juvenile
mortality

 Relative security
thereafter
Population perspective 03/20/24

We are
here

From: Joseph A.
McFalls, Jr. Population:
A lively introduction, 5th
ed, Population
Reference Bureau
Population Bulletin;
62(1), March 2007.
32
 Population Pyramids

• One way of looking at changes in the composition of a

population is through Population Pyramids.
• Population pyramids show the composition of a population
by age and sex (percent population in all age-sex cohorts)
• These pyramids typically show the following:
--Males on left side/Females on the right side
--Age groups as individual cohorts going from
youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top
• These pyramids can be done for different geographies
and/or different racial and ethnic groups.
 Population pyramids

From: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A lively introduction, 5th ed, Population
Reference Bureau Population Bulletin; 62(1), March 2007.
34
 Measuring Population Change
• Population change is simply the difference in population
between two points in time.
• Change can be expressed in Absolute or Percentage terms.
• Absolute Change: The simple difference between population
figures. Negative values indicate a loss in population.
E.g. Absolute Population Change 1990-2000
Pop 2000 – Pop 1990
15,982,378 – 12,937,926 = 3,044,452
• Percent Change: The relative growth rate over a period of
time calculated as a percentage using the formula: [(New-
Old)/Old] x 100
E.g. Percent Population Change 1990-2000
(Pop2000-Pop1990)/Pop1990x100
(15,982,378- 12,937,926)x 100 = 23.53%
12,937,926
 Components of Population Change
• Demographers rely upon the “Demographic Balancing
Equation” to very simply and elegantly summarize
population change:
Pop2 = Pop1 + B – D + IM – OM, where
Pop2 = Population at a later time period
Pop1 = Population at an earlier time period
B = Births Migration
D = Deaths
IM = In-Migration Mortality
OM = Out-Migration
Fertility
• The nature of population change is simple… changes can
only occur through: 1) Births, 2) Deaths, or 3) Migration
 Fertility Component
• Fertility: The number of births that occur to an individual or in a
population.
• Fecundity: The physiological ability of individuals or couples to
have children. Maximum fecundity for a population is believed to
be 15 children.
• Another key concept is the “at-risk population”. Only a certain
subset of the population is “at-risk” for fertility  Women aged 12-
50
• Factors that affect fertility include: Gender, Socioeconomic status,
Age, Religion, Culture, Education, Race/Ethnicity
• Common calculations related to fertility include:
1) Total Fertility Rate: Average # of children in a “synthetic”
family
2) General Fertility Rate: #Births per 1000 women of
childbearing age
3) Crude Birth Rate: # Births/Midyear Population
 Mortality Component
• Mortality: Analyzes the number and causes of deaths in a
population.
• Life Span: The upper limit to human lives is theorized to be
somewhere around 120, although there are reports of some
people living as long as 135 years.
• Factors affecting mortality include:
1) Age (J-curve) 4) Race/Ethnicity
2) Gender 5) Modernity
3) Socioeconomic status
• Common calculations related to mortality include:
1) Overall Death Rate: Deaths per 1000 population
2) Crude Death Rate: # Deaths/Midyear Population
3) Age-Sex-Race specific survival rates: The likelihood that
an individual with certain characteristics will survive the year
4) Life Expectancy: The expected number of years an
individual will live if they were to live their entire life right now.
In 1900~30 (worldwide) By 2000~70 (worldwide)
Population perspective 1/18/2011

From: Joseph A.
McFalls, Jr.
Population: A
lively introduction,
5th ed, Population
Reference Bureau
Population
Bulletin; 62(1),
March 2007.

39