Presentation of Assignments 1-3

MCDI71: Business Intelligence Certificate in Analytics to Support Managerial Decisions

ANALYSIS OF PHARMACY SALES AND INSURANCE PAYOUTS

Alexander Grashchuk 737212120

DECEMBER 31, 2022
Pharmacy Sales in Serbia

Data:
 4 Excel files: Hourly, Daily, Weekly Monthly Sales
 Period: 01Jan 2018- 8 Oct 2019
 8 different drug categories

Tasks:
 Exploring any seasonal patterns
 Comparing Performances of Drug Categories
 Identifying busiest Sales Periods

Aim:
 Gaining Insights and making Business Recommendations
 Forecasting Future Sales
Data Analysis Steps in Power BI
 Data cleaned in Power Query
 Created New Measures
 Created Data Dimensions
 Results Presented in a Dashboard
 Seasonality

Annual Sales Changes Monthly Sales Changes

Insights:

Analgesics – dominant group

Anti-inflammatory – most stable minimal annual/monthly sales

Psycholeptics and Antihistamines – stable in combined sales, complimentary in sales changes to one another
 Daily Sales Patterns

Similar proportions of overall Morning / Afternoon / Evening sales

Seasonal decreases in all time slots

Evening Sales are most stable
Seasonal decrease affecting the most Afternoon sales, reducing from Winter to Summer by nearly 40%
Daily Sales Patterns

 Average sales higher on weekends

 Minimal or no difference in summer and spring
 Two sales peaks daily: around noon and before closure
 Midday peak most pronounced on weekends
 Evening’s peak the highest on workdays
 Total Sales Plots with CMA, Excel Forecasting
and Time Series using Holt-Winters’s Exponential Soothing

Total Sales 4000

Linear (Total Sales)
Linear (Total Sales) 3500
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0 TTL Sales Forecast(TTL Sales)
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0 Lower Confidence Bound(TTL Sales) Upper Confidence Bound(TTL Sales)
 Insurance Payments Dataset
 Descriptive and Diagnostic Analyses
Positive skew of Insurance Payouts (a lot of high-value outliers)
Payouts correlated with Smoking, Age and BMI
Business Questions:

What are the most common demographical features the insured with highest payouts?

Do demographic factors affect smokers’ and non-smokers differently?

Would “healthy” individuals be likely to have payouts under the median of all the insured?
Comparing “Healthy” against “All”

Healthy = non-smokers, BMI between 18.5 and 24.90

Higher median BMI coincided with higher median age

Nevertherles, 25% of “healthy” group had above median

payments of the entire set
 Tabulation Analysis

- Complicated pattern
- Maximum payouts for “Healthy Weight” in 3
age groups
- Minimal Payments for “Underweight” but low
numbers
- Bigger Samples required for Further Analysis

Hypothesis Testing

Two-Sample t-Test Assuming Unequal

Variances for Mean Payouts

BMI >= 30 BMI < 30

Mean Payouts 8856.436975 7977.02952

Variance 37228688.97 34096584.92
Observations 562 502
Hypothesized
Mean Difference 0
Df 1059
t Stat 2.399827224
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.008287595
t Critical one-tail 1.646297865
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.01657519
t Critical two-tail 1.962212987