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Finalppt 131229010307 Phpapp02
Finalppt 131229010307 Phpapp02
engineering
Definitions
Reliability - The ability of an item to perform a
required function under stated conditions for a
stated period of time. It is usually denoted as
probability or as a success .
Guarantee An assurance given by the manufacturer to the vendor that the product will work without
failure for a stated period of time
Warranty A written guarantee given to the purchaser of a new appliance, automobile, or other item by
the manufacturer or dealer, usually specifying that the manufacturer will make any repairs
or replace defective parts free of charge for a stated period of time.
Availability A tool for measuring the percent of time an item or system is in a state of readiness where it is
operable and can be committed to use when called upon. Availability ceases because of a downing
event that causes the item/to system become unavailable to initiate a mission when called upon
Availability=MTBF/(MTBF+MTTR)
Reliability The ability of an item to perform a required function under stated conditions for a
stated period of time. It is usually denoted as probability or as a success .
Guarantee Warranty Maintainability Availability Reliability
An assurance A written guarantee The measure of the A tool for The ability of an
given by the given to the purchaser ability of an item to be measuring the item to perform a
manufacturer to of a new appliance, retained in or retained percent of time an required function
the vendor that automobile, or other in or restored to a item or system is in under stated
the product will item by the specified condition a state of readiness conditions for a
work without manufacturer or dealer, when maintenance is where it is operable stated period of
failure for a usually specifying that performed by
and can be time. It is usually
stated period of the manufacturer will personnel having
time make any repairs or specified skill levels, committed to use denoted as
replace defective parts using prescribed when called upon. probability or as a
free of charge for a procedures and Availability ceases success .
stated period of time. resources because of a
Applies to a major downing event that
tasks where many causes the item to
repetitions are become unavailable
expected and where to initiate a mission
considerable time is when called upon
required
Availability=MTB
F/(MTBF+MTTR)
Why engineering items failed?
The design might be inherently incapable, the more
complex the design ,more the difficult to overcome the
problem
The item might be overstressed in some way
Failures can be caused by wear out. Sufficiently strong
at the start of the life and become weaker with age
Failures can be caused by other time dependent
mechanism such as battery run down, creep in turbine
caused simultaneously by high temperature and tensile
stress
Failures can be caused by sneaks . Sneak is the
condition in which the system does not work
properly even though every part does
Failures can be caused by errors such as incorrect
specification, design ,fault assembly or test
There are many other potential causes to failure
such as oil leaks noisy ,display flickering etc.
Knowing ,as far as is practicable, the potential
causes of failures is fundamental to preventing
them
Failures might be caused by variation
What is reliability engineering
Manufacturers often suffer high costs of failure under
warranty
Reliability is usually concerned with failures in the time
domain. This distinction marks the difference between
traditional quality control and reliability engineering
Whether failures occur or not and their times to
occurrence can seldom be forecast accurately .reliability
is therefore an aspect of engineering uncertainty
Whether an item will work for a particular period is a
question which can be answered as a probability.
Ultimately reliability engineering is effective
management of engineering
Need for
Reliability
Non-Repairable items
Reliability is the survival probability over the items expected
life ,or for a period during its life, when only one failure can occur
The instantaneous probability of the first and only failure is called
hazard rate
MTTF , the expected life by which a certain percentage might have
failed is used here.
The non repairable parts may be individual parts such as bulb,
transistor or systems comprised of many parts such as spacecraft,
microprocessor
When a part fails in a non repairable system, the system fails, hence
the reliability is function of the time to the first part failure
Repairable items
Reliability is the probability that the failure will not
occur in the period of interest, when more than one
failure can occur .
It can also be expressed as failure rate or the rate of
occurrence of failures
Reliability is characterized by MTBF, but only under the
particular condition of a constant failure rate
In a repairable system which contains which contains a
part type ,the part will contribute by that amount to the
system failure rate
Bath tub curve
With Replacement
TYPE II
Failure Terminated
Without
Replacement
MLE Weibull Parameter Estimation
r
t
i ln ti (n r )t s ln t s
1 1 r
g ( ) i 1
ln ti 0
r
r i 1
ti (n r )ts
i 1
1/
1 r
ti (n r )t s
r i 1
ts =1 For Complete Data
=Test time For TYPE I Data
= tr For TYPE II Data
350 18
750 10
2026 7
Cumulative Failure Function, F(ti)=1-exp(-
λti)
for exponential distribution.
Thus expected number of failures in the
bound is given by
E(ti)=number of components*expected
failure(F(ti))
Let λ=0.00206
E1=35*(1-exp(-350*0.00206))=17.98
E2=35*(1-exp(-350*0.00206)-P1)=9.55
E3=35*(1-P2-P1)=7.47
From the formula, we find the value of χ^2
Formulae Used
Sn(tn)=0 For -∞<t1
=i/n For ti<t< ∞;i=1,2….n-1
=1 For tn<t<∞
K – S = max(|F(ti)-Sn(ti)|,|F(ti)-Sn(ti-1)|)
Where
F(ti) is Cumulative failure of the distribution
ti is the Time taken for ith Failure
n is sample size
Example
The following 14 observations are on the failure time
of a component in hours. Test the hypothesis that the
failure time is normal.
n
formula
RS=1-(1-R1)(1-R2)
Generalizing
Rs=1- [1- Ri (t) ]
Combination of parallel and series
Example
If R1=R2 =0.90,R3=R6=0.98,R4=R5=0.99 considering as
constant failure rate
Solution:
Ra=1-(0.10)^2
Rb=[1-(0.10)^2](0.98)
=0.9702
Rc=(0.99)^2
=0.9801
& Rs=[1-(1-0.9702)(1-0.98)](0.98)
=0.9794
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
An undesired event is defined
The event is resolved into its immediate causes
This resolution of events continues until basic
causes are identified
A logical diagram called a fault tree is constructed
showing the logical event relationships
ELEMENTS
FTA is a deductive analysis approach for resolving
an undesired event into its causes
FTA is a backward looking analysis, looking
backward at the causes of a given event
Specific stepwise logic is used in the process
Specific logic symbols are used to to illustrate the
event relationships
A logic diagram is constructed showing the event
relationships.
USES
FTA is used to resolve the causes of system failure
FTA is used to quantify system failure probability
FTA is used to evaluate potential upgrades to a
system
FTA is used to optimize resources in assuring
system safety
FTA is used to resolve causes of an incident
FTA is used to model system failures in risk
assessments
FOUR STEPS
1. Define the undesired event to be analyzed (the
focus of the FTA)
2. Define the boundary of the system (the scope of
the FTA)
3. Define the basic causal events to be considered
(the resolution of the FTA)
4. Define the initial state of the system
BASIC EVENTS
BASIC GATES
Example
Specifications
Undesired top event: Motor does not start when
switch is closed
Boundary of the FT: The circuit containing the
motor, battery, and switch
Resolution of the FT: The basic components in the
circuit excluding the wiring
Initial State of System: Switch open, normal
operating conditions
Fault tree
The Top Event of the Fault Tree
The top event should describe WHAT the event is
and WHEN it happens
The top event is the specific event to be resolved
into its basic causes
EX:
1. Fuel Supply System Fails to Shutoff after the
fueling phase
2. Launch Vehicle Fails to Ignite at Launch
OR gate
The OR Gate represents the logical union of the
inputs: the output occurs if any of the inputs occur
The OR gate is used when an event is resolved
into more specific causes or scenarios
The OR gate is used when a component failure is
resolved into an inherent failure or a command
failure
The OR gate is used when an event is described in
terms of equivalent, more specific events
AND gate
The AND Gate represents the logical intersection of
the inputs, the output occurs if all of the inputs occur
The OR gate is used when an event is resolved into
combinations of events that need to occur
The AND gate is used when a redundant system is
resolved into multiple subsystems that need to fail
The AND gate is used when a system failure is
resolved into conditions and events needed to occur
Developing FTA
1.Define the top event as a rectangle
2.Determine the immediate necessary and sufficient events
which result in the top event
3.Draw the appropriate gate to describe the logic for the
intermediate events resulting in the top event
4. Treat each intermediate event as an intermediate level top
event
5. Determine the immediate, necessary and sufficient causes for
each intermediate event
6. Determine the appropriate gate and continue the process
Key attributes
Top Event-What specific event is being analyzed?
Boundary-What is inside and outside the analysis?
Resolution-What are the primary causes to be
resolved to?
Initial State-What is assumed for the initial
conditions and states?
FAULT VS FAILURE
•The intermediate events in a fault tree are called faults
1.Put down the number of the input places in the row if the
output place is connected by multi arcs from transition .
This accounts for OR models
4. Starting from the top event down to the basic event s until
all the places are replaced by basic events , the matrix is thus
formed, called the basic event matrix, the column vector of the
matrix constitute cut sets
5. Remove the super sets from the basics event matrix and the
remaining column vector become the minimum cut sets
Minimum cut sets can be derived in an opposite,
bottom up , direction , that is from basics places to
the top place . Transition with T=0 are called
immediate transition . If the petri nets is
immediate transition , i.e. the token transfer
between places do not take time, then can be
absorbed to a simplified form called the equivalent
petri net. After absorption, all the remaining place
are basic events . The equivalent petri nets exactly
constitutes the minimum cut sets, i.e. the input of
each transition represents a minimum cut sets
Monte Carlo simulation
In a Monte Carlo simulation, a logical model of
the system being analyzed is repeatedly evaluated,
each run using different values of the distributed
parameters
The selection of parameters values is made
randomly but with probabilities governed by the
relevant distribute functions
Monte carlo simulation can be used for system
reliability and availability modeling , using
suitable computer programs. Since Monte carlo
simulation involves no complex mathematical
analysis, it is an attractive alternative approach.it
is relatively easy way to model complex systems ,
and the input algorithm are easy to understand
One problem in this methods is that its expensive
use of compute time
Since the simulation of probabilistic events
generates variable results, in effect simulating the
variability of real life, it is usually necessary to
perform a number of runs in order to obtain
estimates of mean and variance of the output
parameters of interest such as availability number
of repairs arising and facility utilization on the
other hand , the effect of variation can be
assessed .
Design analysis methods
Design analysis methods have been developed to highlight
critical aspects and to focus attention on possible shortfalls
Design analyses are sometimes considered tedious and
expensive
In most case the analyses will show that nearly all aspects of
the design are satisfactory, and much more effort will have
been expended in showing this than in highlighting a few
deficiencies
The tedium and expense can be greatly reduced by good
planning and preparation and by the use of computerized
methods ,.
The main reliability design analysis technique
described
1.Quality function deployment
2.Reliability prediction
3.Load-strength analysis
4.Failure modes, effects and critically analysis
5.Fault tree analysis
6.Hazard and operability study
7.Parts materials and process review
8.Others, including human aspects manufacturing,
maintenance, etc..
Quality function development
QFD is a bad transition of a good reliability
technique for getting the voice of the customer
into the design process so the product the
customer desires.in particular ,it is applicable to
soft issues that are difficult to specify
This method helps to pinpoint what to do, the best
way to accomplish the objective the best order for
achieving the design objective and staffing asserts
to complete the task
Itis a major up front effort to learn and understand
the customer’s requirement and the approach that
will satisfy their objectives
The methodology is used as a team approach to
solving problems and satisfying customers ,
beginning with a listing
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis(FMEA)
Failure mode and effect analysis is the study of
potential failures that might occur in any part of a
system to determine the probable operation success.
When criticality analysis is added for sophisticated
studies the method is known as FMECA.
The basic thrust of the analysis tool is to prevent
failures using a simple and cost effective analysis
that draws on the collective information of the team
to find problem and resolve them before they occur
The analysis is known as a bottom-up (inductive)
approach to finding each potential mode of failure
that might occur for every component of a
system .it also used for determining the probable
effect on the system operation of each failure
mode and , in turn on probable operational success
FMEA can be performed from different
viewpoints such as safety, mission success, repair
costs, failure modes, reliability reputation
FMEA is most productive when performed during
the design process to eliminate potential failures it
can also be performed on existing systems
Theanalysis can be conducted in the design room
or on the shop floor and it is an excellent tool for
sharing the experience to make the team aware of
details that are known to one person but seldom
shared with the team .
Accelerated testing
A test method of increasing loads to quickly produce
age to failure data with only a few data points are then
scaled to reflect normal loads
The benefits of this testing is to save time and money
while quantifying the relationship between stress and
performance along with identifying design at low cost
It is used to correlate with real life conditions
It is useful method for solving old, nagging problems
within a production process
Accelerated testing shortens the test tie as the tests
are conducted at higher stress levels to expediting
the failure tie to be days instead of month or years
Challenges faced by designer :