Drivers of

HDB Resale
Price TeYang Lau
 Contents

◉ HDB Resale Prices Dataset

◉ Other Data Sources / Feature Engineering
◉ Exploratory Data Analysis
◉ Models and Results
◉ Drivers of Resale Price

2
HDB Resale Prices
Dataset
Understanding the Data 1 3
 HDB Resale Prices Dataset

5 Datasets Flat Features Resale Price

1990 to Sep 2020 Town Nominal Price
Monthly Transactions Street Name
Block Number
826,581 transactions
Storey Range
Flat Model
Flat Type
Floor Area
Lease Commence Date
Remaining Lease

4
 Median HDB Resale Prices Over the Years
Adjusted for Inflation to 2019
Unadjusted for Inflation SGD

◉ Adjust using Consumer Price Index for Housing and Utilities (singstat.gov.sg)

5
Other Data Sources
Feature Engineering 2 6
 Process

◉ Names of amenities were downloaded/scraped

from Data.gov.sg and Wikipedia

◉ Get coordinates using OneMap.sg API

◉ Use geopy package to get distance between 2 locations
◉ Compute nearest distance to each amenity
◉ Compute number of amenities in 2km radius

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 Nearest Amenities Distance & Number in 2km Radius
Nearest Nearest Nearest Nearest Nearest Distance
Num Nearest Nearest Nearest
Flat Primary School
School Hawker
Hawker
Mall
Mall
MRT
MRT From
School Distance Distance Distance Distance Dhoby

Canberra Chong Pang

481 SEMBAWANG SEMBAWANG
Primary 0.23 7 Market & 2.75 Sun Plaza 0.71 0.70 17.32
DR MRT STATION
School Food Centre

North Bridge
Bendemeer
3A UPP BOON KENG Road Market KALLANG MRT
Primary 1.21 6 1.25 Aperia 1.02 0.28 3.41
RD & Food STATION
School
Centre

Zhonghua Chomp
126 SERANGOON KOVAN MRT
Primary 0.69 6 Chomp Food 0.62 Hougang 1 1.35 1.60 7.95
NTH AVE 1 STATION
School Centre

Cantonment
Market Street People's CHINATOWN
536 UPP CROSS ST Primary 1.22 2 0.04 0.20 0.13 1.58
Food Centre Park Centre MRT STATION
School

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Exploratory Data
Analysis
By Each Feature 3 9
Resale Price by Town

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 North
SGD 351,798

North-East
SGD 410, 850

West East
SGD 371,119 Central SGD 413,631
SGD 485,659

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Resale Price by Distance From Dhoby Ghaut MRT

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2 Room Resale Price by Flat Model Maisonette

Model A Type S1S2

Model A; Standard; New Generation

Apartment; Maisonette; Special

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Resale Price by Floor Area

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Resale Price by Flat Type

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Model and Results
Linear Regression
Random Forest
4 16
 Data Prepreration

Multicollinearity Label Encoding Feature Scaling

VIF VIF
Storey Range Using StandardScaler from
Features SKLearn on all continuous
Before After Flat Type
Lease Commence
features
44562 53
Date

Dummy Encoding
Year 44064 -
Flat Model (baseline – Standard)
Floor Area 20 19 Region (baseline – Central)
Nearest Hawker
11 8
Distance

Nearest Park
6 6
Distance

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 Data Prepreration — Outlier Detection

Cook’s Distance Before outlier removal After outlier removal

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 Linear Regression
◉ OLS Regression
◉ 23 Features
◉ Statsmodels package

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 Random Forest
Random Forest Feature Importance
◉ Random Forest Regression
◉ 26 Features
◉ SKLearn package
◉ Train Test — 9:1
◉ Out-Of-Bag (R2: 0.957)
◉ Grid Search Cross Validation
(R2: 0.961)

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 SHAP Values
Predicted Low Resale Price

Predicted Medium Resale Price

Predicted High Resale Price

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 Conclusion

Resale Price 2 Models Other Factors

Increasing trend Linear & Non-linear Number of BTOs
Focusing on past 5 years R2 >= 0.9 Government Policies
Better able to look at drivers ~ $20,000 MAE Condition of House

Flat Features Lease Location

Floor Area Lease commencement date that Region — Central Area
starts more recently fetch higher
Number of Rooms Distance from Dhoby Ghaut
resale prices
Distance from Hawker Centers

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