IST 214- STATICTICS II

Week 4: Binomial Distribution and Poison

Distribution, Expected Values and Variance

Prof. Dr. Erginbay Uğurlu

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 Binomial Probability Distribution
A binomial probability distribution results from a
procedure that meets all the following requirements:

1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials.

2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of
any individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities
in the other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into
two categories (commonly referred to as success
and failure).
4. The probability of a success remains the same in
all trials.
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 Notation for Binomial
Probability Distributions

S and F (success and failure) denote the two

possible categories of all outcomes; p and q will
denote the probabilities of S and F, respectively, so

P(S) = p (p = probability of success)

P(F) = 1 – p = q (q = probability of failure)

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 Notation

n denotes the fixed number of trials.

x denotes a specific number of successes in n
trials, so x can be any whole number between 0 and n,
inclusive.
p denotes the probability of success in one of the
n trials.
q denotes the probability of failure in one of the n
trials.
P(x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x
successes among the n trials.

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 Binomial Probability Function

 For a binomial experiment, let p represent the

probability of a “success” and q represent the
probability of a “failure” on a single trial; then P(x), the
probability that there will be exactly x successes on n
trials is:  n x n  x
P ( x )    ( p )(q ), for x  0, 1, 2, ... , or n
 x
Notes:
 The number of ways that exactly x successes can occur in n trials:

 n
 
 x
 The probability of exactly x successes: px

 The probability that failure will occur on the remaining

(n - x) trials: qn - x
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 Notes

 The number of ways that exactly x successes can

occur in a set of n trials is represented
 n by the symbol:
 
 x
1. Must always be a positive integer
2. Called the binomial coefficient
3. Found by using the formula:  n n!
  
 x x !(n  x )!

 n! is an abbreviation for n factorial: n!  n(n  1)(n  2)(3)(2)(1)

6!  6  5  4  3  2  1  720
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 Example

 Example: According to a recent study, 65% of all homes

in a certain county have high levels of radon gas
leaking into their basements. Four homes are
selected at random and tested for radon. The
random variable x is the number of homes with high
levels of radon (out of the four).
Properties:
1. There are 4 repeated trials: n = 4. The trials are independent.
2. Each test for radon is a trial, and each test has two outcomes: radon or
no radon
3. p = P(radon) = 0.65, q = P(no radon) = 0.35
p+q=1
4. x is the number of homes with high levels of radon, possible values:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4
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 Binomial Probability Function
æ4 ö -
P ( x ) ç ÷(0.65 ) x (0.35 ) 4 x , for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
=
èx ø

æ4 ö
P ( 0 ) = ç ÷(0.65 ) 0 (0. 35 ) 4 = (1)( 1)( 0 .0150 ) = 0 .0150
è0 ø

æ4 ö
P ( 1) ç ÷(0. 65 ) 1 (0. 35 ) 3 = ( 4 )( 0 .65 )( 0 .0429 ) = 0 .1115
=
è1 ø

æ4 ö
P ( 2 ) ç ÷(0.65 ) 2 (0. 35 ) 2 = ( 6 )( 0 .4225 )( 0 .1225 ) = 0 .3105
=
è2 ø

æ4 ö
P ( 3) ç ÷(0. 65 ) 3 (0. 35 ) 1 = ( 4 )( 0 .2746 )( 0 .35 ) = 0 .3845
=
è3 ø

æ4 ö
P( 4) = ç ÷(0. 65 ) (0. 35 ) = ( 1)( 0 .1785 )( 1) = 0 .1785
4 0
è4 ø
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 Example

 Example: In a certain automobile dealership, 70% of all

customers purchase an extended warranty with their new
car. For 15 customers selected at random:
1) Find the probability that exactly 12 will purchase an
extended warranty
2) Find the probability at most 13 will purchase an
extended warranty

Solutions:
• Let x be the number of customers who purchase an extended warranty. x
is a binomial random variable.

• The probability function associated with this experiment:

æ15ö -
P( x ) = ç ÷(0.7) x (0.3)15 x , for x = 0, 1, 2, ... ,15
èxø
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 Solutions Continued

1) Probability exactly 12 purchase an extended warranty:

æ 15ö
P(12) = ç ÷ (0.7)12 (0.3) 3 =0.1700
è 12ø

2) Probability at most 13 purchase an extended warranty:

P( x £13) = P(0) + P(1)+ ... + P(13)

=1 - [P(14) + P(15) ]
éæ15 ö 1 æ15 ö 0ù
=1 - êç ÷(0.7) (0. 3) + ç ÷(0.7) (0.3) ú
14 15

ëè14 ø è15 ø û
=1 -[0.0305 + 0.0047]
=1 -0.0352 = 0.9648
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 5.5 ~ Mean & Standard Deviation
of the Binomial Distribution

 Population parameters of the binomial

distribution help to describe the distribution

• Mean and standard deviation indicate where the

distribution is centered and the spread of the distribution

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 Mean & Standard Deviation

 The mean and standard deviation of a

theoretical binomial distribution can be found
by using the following two formulas:
m =np
s = npq

Notes:
 Mean is intuitive: number of trials multiplied by the
probability of a success
 The variance of a binomial probability distribution is:
s 2 = ( npq ) =npq
2

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 Example

 Example: Find the mean and standard deviation of

the binomial distribution when n = 18 and p =
0.75
Solutions:
1) n = 18, p = 0.75, q = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25
m = np = (18)(0.75) = 13.5

s = npq = (18)(0.75)(0.25) = 3.375 » 18371

.

2) The probability function is:

æ 18ö -
P( x ) ç ÷ (0.75) x (0.25)18 x for x = 0, 1, 2, ... , 18
=
è xø
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 Poisson Distribution

The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability distribution

if it has the probability function:

e  x

where P( x)  , for x  0, 1,2,...

• x! of x successes over a given period of
P(x) = the probability
time or space, given 
•  = the expected number of successes per time or space
unit;  > 0
• e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)
• The mean and variance of the Poisson probability distribution are:

 x  E ( X )   and  x2  E[( X   ) 2 ]  
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 Requirements of the
Poisson Distribution
 The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of an event over some interval.

 The occurrences must be random.

 The occurrences must be independent of each

other.

 The occurrences must be uniformly distributed

over the interval being used.
Parameters

 The standard deviation
The mean is µ. is = µ.
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 Parameters of the
Poisson Distribution

 The mean is µ.

 The standard deviation is   .

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Suppose that the number of snake bites cases
seen at KKUH in a year has a Poisson distribution
with average 6 bite cases.
1- What is the probability that in a year:
(i) The no. of snake bite cases will be 7?
(ii) The no. of snake bite cases will be less than 2?

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Solution:
(1) X = no. of snake bite cases in a year.
X ~ Poisson (6) (=6)

e 6 6 x
P X  x   ; x  0, 1, 2, 
x!
e 6 6 7
(i) P  X  7)    0.13768
7!

(ii) P X  2   P X  0   P X  1
e 6 6 0 e 6 61
   0.01735
0! 1!

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