MODELLING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN

SOUTHWEST NIGERIA

BY
 OUTLINE

• BACKGROUND INFORMATION
• PROBLEM STATEMENT
• JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY
• RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
• RESEARCH QUESTIONS
• EMPIRICAL STUDIES
• METHODOLOGY
• REFERENCE
• APPENDICES
 BACKGROUND INFORMATION

• Bourqoui et al. (1999) define climate change as a shift in the statistical characteristics of the

climate system over period of decades or more.

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) define climate change as

the change of climate that is ascribed directly or indirectly to human action that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere in addition to natural climate variability that is observed

over comparable time period.

• The combination of climate change and human influences exaggerates Nigeria’s total water

resources
 PROBLEM STATEMENT
• Many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate can affect many related aspects of where
and how people, plants and animals live, such as food production, availability and use of water, and
health risks. (Aribisala et al. 2015)

• On human health, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that at least 150,000 deaths
each year could be traced to the outcome of CC. Moreover, this figure is expected to double by
2030 with connections to flooding and water-related diseases (WHO, 2021)

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) estimates that the global mean
surface temperature has increased 0.6 ± 0.2 oC since 1861, and predicts an increase of 2 to 4 o c to
cover the next 100 years.

• Temperature increases also affect the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing evaporation of
available surface water vegetation transpiration.
 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY

• This study will provides information on the impact of climate change on water resources with a view to

recommending needed improvement to safeguard public health.

• Unbelievably high, Global and continental trend data necessitate such a study at the local level to

determine how climate change is affecting water resources

• Information gathered from this study served as a source of guide to researchers who is willing to

participate in this study.

 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

GENERAL OBJECTIVE

• To examine the impact of climate change on water resources available in Southwest, Nigeria.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

• Analyse the sensitivity of South-western Nigeria to climate change using climatic variable of temperature and

rainfall

• To determine the potential impact of water resources in Southwest, Nigeria

• To identify the trend of occurrence of extreme rainfall indices under climatic condition in Southwest, Nigeria

• To estimate the water stress resulting from climatic changes in Southwest, Nigeria.
 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• What is the sensitivity of Southwest Nigeria to climate change?

• What are the potential impact of climate changes on water availability in Southwest Nigeria?

• What is the trend of occurrence of extreme rainfall indices under future climatic condition in Southwest Nigeria?

• What is the likely state of water stress resulting from climate change in Southwest Nigeria?
 EMPIRICAL STUDIES

GLOBAL STUDIES

• Teng et al. (2012) used analogue downscaling to evaluate the effects of climate change on mean annual runoff

throughout continental Australia.

• Employing ten global climate models (GCMs) and contrasting the outcomes with an empirical scaling technique.

• When comparing the empirical scaling technique with the analogue method based on future runoff changes

averaged over the entire research region, the results are mostly comparable, with the vast majority of GCMs

indicating a drop in future runoff.

 EMPIRICAL STUDIES

GLOBAL STUDIES (Cont’d)

• Lapidez (2016) evaluated the effects of climate change on the hydrological regime and budget of water resources

in the Philippines' Pampanga river basin.

• The findings indicate that the Pampanga River Basin's estimated total annual water budget for the years 2046–

2065 is greater than it is now. The wet season, which runs from June to November, is when this rise is most likely

to happen.
 EMPIRICAL STUDIES

REGIONAL STUDIES

• The effects of climate change on water resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D'ivoire, were studied by Gneneyougo et al. (2017).

• The yearly temperature may rise from 1.2 oC to 3 oC, according to simulation results for the future climate from the HadGEM2-

ES model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.

• It is predicted to fall by 5% to 47% under RCP 8.5 and by 3% to 42% at all horizons during this time. Under the RCP 4.5

scenario, these differences will result in an increase in surface and groundwater resources during the three decades (2066–2085;

2041–2060; and 2006–2035).

• Conversely, under RCP 8.5, these water resources in the Bandama basin might decline over all timeframes.
 EMPIRICAL STUDIES

NATIONAL STUDY

• Ayeni et al. (2015) evaluated how the surface water resources in southwest Nigeria were affected by global trends.

The Pitman monthly rainfall runoff model, which is driven by long-term (1961–2007) rainfall data, was utilised in

the study to evaluate changes to the water resources of three Nigerian basins: Asa, Ogun, and Owena.

• According to the model results, between 1981 and 2007, the runoff coefficient increased as the amount of forest

cover decreased.

• Asa basin's runoff coefficient was lower in all scenarios than that of Ogun and Owena basins, suggesting that Asa

basin would experience significantly more water stress in the future.

METHODOLOGY
 REFERENCE

• UNFCC, (2014). Introduction to the Convention, Archived from the original on 8 January 2014, retrieved 27 January 2014.

• Aribisala J.O , Awopetu M. S., Ademilua O. L., Okunade E. A., & Adebayo W. O. Effect of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources

in South West, Nigeria . Journal of Environment and Earth Science www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-3216 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0948 (Online)

Vol.5, No.12, 2015

• Teng, J., Chiew, F. H. S., Timbal, B., Wang, Y., Vaze, J., & Wang, B. (2012). Assessment of an Analogue Downscaling Method for

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Runoff. Journal of Hydrology, 472, 111-125, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.024

• Ayeni, A. O., Kapangaziwiri, E., Soneye, A. S. O., & Engelbrecht, F. A. (2015). Assessing the Impact of

Global Changes on the Surface Water Resources of Southwestern Nigeria, Hydrological Sciences

Journal, 60:11, 1956-1971, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.993645