WORLD

INDICES
ANALYSIS USED HISTORIC DATA UP TO END OF
August 2023
RELEASE TIME: SEPTEMBER 2023

August 2023
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES HISTORY

Last 1 month Last Year

Although parts of the month looked weak, it was a dynamic recovery till
Steel (rebars)* -3% - 19 % month end, with equities and commodities returned up approaching about
Copper -1% +5% at same level of month start. Ultimately, most markets were down for the
month and it was only in the latter stages that markets had a bit of wind
Aluminum -1% 0%
behind them, driven by the belief that the Fed rate rises had peaked and
Brent +6% - 15 % China stimulus would restart its economy.
World Containers Index* + 17 % - 72 %
Commodities were marginally down during the month, with the
Ordinary Portland Cement* - 0.7 % 0% Bloomberg Commodity Index down -0.6%. However, oil markets were up
MGO** + 10 % - 30 % on tightening supplies due to low US stockpiles, increasing global demand
and OPEC+ cutting production. Ultimately, oil was up for the month,
VLSFO** + 11 % - 24 % although not by a huge margin.

* Global Average
** 2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES FORECAST

In Euromonitor International’s Q3 2023 baseline forecast, the 2023

Next 2 months Next 6 months global real GDP growth forecast is revised marginally upward to 2.6%.
Global economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 but remain
Steel (rebars)* -1% +4% subdued at 2.9%, mainly as result of the lagged effects of higher
Copper -1% +3% borrowing costs. Global consumer price inflation is expected to
decelerate to 7.0% in 2023 and further to 4.7% in 2024, on the back of
Aluminum +2% +7%
slowing demand, tightened financial conditions and lower commodity
Brent +4% + 13% prices.
World Containers Index* +2% 0%
Steel rebar and copper pricing is forecasted to fluctuate around its
Ordinary Portland Cement* 0% 0% current level for the next semester ending marginally higher. A further
MGO** +4% + 24 % increase in Brent, MGO and VLSFO is forecast of at least 10%. Prices of
aluminum are expected to increase onward as the demand is expected
VLSFO** +6% + 20 % to increase internationally. WCI is anticipated to remain calm despite
fuels bullish projection.

* Global Average
**2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
***Disclaimer: no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained in the present report .
 CONSTRUCTION IN MIDDLE EAST & NORTH
AFRICA

August 2023 Vs August 2022 ($)

PRICING PER SAND REBAR CEMENT CONCRETE READY MIX ELECTRIC
COUNTRY BLOCK CONCRETE CABLE
KSA + 4.9 % - 1.8 % + 1.3 % + 1.3 % - 1.6 % + 10.0 %
UAE + 12.9 % + 9.4 % + 2.9 % - 5.8 % + 6.5 % + 11.9 %
EGYPT + 3.0 % + 30.6 % + 1.3 % - 8.7 % - 3.4 % + 9.2 %
QATAR + 17.3 % + 7.1 % + 1.4 % + 1.6 % + 10.8 % + 9.2 %
MOROCCO - 1.1 % + 2.1 % + 2.6 % - 7.5 % - 7.8 % + 8.4 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL: HISTORY & FORECAST
End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
Flat Products Composite:
- 4 % || - 10 % || - 12 %
Long Products Composite:
STEEL PRODUCTS: 12 M ON THS HISTORY & 6 M ON THS - 4 % || - 10 % || - 18 %
FORECA ST Sections & Beams:
1300 - 4 % || - 9 % || - 16 %
1200 Rebars:
- 3 % || - 11 % || - 19 %
1100

1000

900

800 End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
700
Flat Products Composite:
600 - 2 % || - 3 % || + 6 %
500
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan-23 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan-24 Feb- Long Products Composite:
22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 - 1 % || - 2 % || - 2 %
Flat Products Long Products Rebar Sections/Beams Sections & Beams:
0 % || - 2 % || + 1 %
Rebars:
- 1 % || - 2 % || + 4 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - HISTORY
• Despite the expectation that the low point in the current cycle had been reached, European prices for steel coil continued to decline in mid/late July, albeit
modestly. The mills’ attempts to raise their selling values failed, and discounts were offered to fill order books. Most producers, particularly those in
southern Europe, are currently not offering, due to scheduled maintenance outages. They are likely to resume quoting in late August or early September. In
the distribution sector, conditions in Germany and Spain are reported to be particularly weak, with activity in France faring slightly better in comparison.
Resale prices have mainly stabilised, but downward pressure persists amid continuing strong competition. Although some sellers state that their stock
levels are high, most comment that their inventories are normal-to-low.

• n the United States, hot rolled coil values decreased in August. This follows a short period of price stability. Mills tried to push for an increase, but this was
not accepted by buyers, who expect further downward price pressure in the coming weeks. Stockists and service centres continue to lower their inventory
levels. Steel coil producer delivery lead times have shortened slightly to between three and five weeks. Demand from the oil and gas sectors has started to
slow. However, activity in the renewable energy sector continues to be robust.

• Chinese domestic hot rolled coil prices moved upwards in late July but subsequently dropped during August. Mills are attempting to implement price
increases as raw material costs are firming, once again, but they are meeting resistance from buyers. Demand is weak both from local traders and from
export customers. Downstream activity is stable. Oversupply remains a feature of the market, despite production cuts. However, further output restrictions
are planned in the coming months. This, coupled with recent changes in the government’s economic and financial policies, is helping to boost sentiment.

• In Europe, price changes recorded for long products this month are mainly the effect of transactions concluded during the second half of July, prior to mills’
summer closures. Proposed price increases were, largely, rejected by buyers. However, the producers’ initiatives, combined with extended shutdowns,
helped to stabilise prices, in August.

• Further deterioration in rebar prices in North America occurred in August. Activity in the market has stagnated during the summer season, as the
construction sector received their orders before the start of seasonal shutdowns. Inventories are growing at many stockists. Domestic delivery lead times
are short. Import offers are attractive, with the differential compared with the domestic price widening.

• Despite messages from the Chinese government that they would seek to stimulate the construction sector, conditions in the long product market continue
to deteriorate. Bloomberg recently reported that 18 out of 38 state-owned property developers have reported preliminary losses for the first half of 2023.
This is denting market confidence. Rebar prices in China remain weak.
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - FORECAST
 European steel producers are expected to attempt to raise their selling values after the summer holiday period. They aim to benefit from tighter
supply following plant maintenance outages, inventory replenishment in the market, and reduced import competition. However, MEPS predicts
that restocking will fall short of expectations during the autumn, with cautious purchasing activity persisting. Distributors and service centres
are struggling to raise their selling prices amid strong competition. The prospects for demand from most end-user industries – including
construction, white goods and mechanical engineering – are weak. Moreover, recent and imminent import arrivals will need time to be
consumed through the supply chain.

 MEPS predicts that North American prices for long products will trend downwards during the rest of 2023. Scrap costs have fallen substantially
in recent months. Consequently, mill profit margins, particularly from the sale of beams and merchant bar, are believed to be unsustainably
wide. Moreover, a reduction in steel demand is forecast. Order backlogs at construction companies are expected to decrease, due to adverse
financial conditions.

 In North America, despite coil producers’ attempts to raise their selling values, discounts are expected to be available in the immediate future,
as a result of newly installed production facilities and a weakening in purchasing by stockholders and end-users. Seasonal restocking, the desire
of steel producers and distributors to improve their profit margins, and a cyclical upturn in global steel market activity are forecast to support a
coil price recovery in the early months of 2024.

 Asian steel prices are forecast to fluctuate around their current levels during the second half of this year. Downward pressure on mill profit
margins and expected output cuts may provide a degree of price support. However, the outlook for steel demand is subdued. Although
benefiting from low base effects from the previous year, the upward momentum in Chinese economic growth is slowing. Pressure is growing on
policymakers to announce further stimulus measures, but authorities are concerned about exacerbating existing debt problems.
 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
Egypt- Rebars: Egypt witnessed a decrease in rebar prices in August 2023 owing to rebar
import duty extensions made on Ukraine, China, and Turkey. This is expected to act as an
advantage for domestic producers. Domestic infrastructure is performing effectively
owing to investments being made in infrastructure development projects by the
Government of Egypt. It led Russia-based steel producer, Novostal-M, to announce its
plans to establish a steel factory in Egypt to tap into this opportunity and avail other
benefits such as competitive power costs in the country. The company currently produces
about 2.8 million tons of reinforcing steel (rebar) per annum and exports about 90% of it
to major markets such as Egypt.
Egypt- Sections & Beams: Pre-engineered buildings (PEBs) accounted for a
significant share of the demand for steel sections/beams in August 2023. End-
wall framing and craning systems used in the structure of PEBs consist
primarily of sections/beams. To cater to domestic and regional demand, Zamil
Steel (KSA) has a plant in 6th of October city in Egypt. It is a leading supplier
of steel to PEBs being developed in the country. The company holds a share
of approximately 50% of the domestic market for steel in Egypt and exports
its remaining products to the neighboring countries. Moreover, the ongoing
housing projects in the country fuel the demand for sections/beams in Egypt.
For instance, the development Egypt Housing’s Fairgrounds project is a part
of the initiatives undertaken by the government of the country to provide
affordable houses to its population. Such projects are expected to continue
contributing to the demand for sections/beams in the country in the coming
months.
 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)
Egypt- Flat products: Egypt’s construction industry continued its investment well into
August. For instance, Arab Developers Holding allocated USD 32 million toward
construction projects in 2023. Housing projects have been given impetus this year. For
instance, the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) agreed to allocate 420 land plots
in new cities, such as Badr City, Al Shorouk City, 15th of May, Borg El Arab, New Damietta,
New October, New Mansoura, and New Sohag. The Ministry of Housing, Utilities and
Urban Communities (MoHUUC) also announced allocation of 481 small residential land
plots. Such developments are expected to boost flat steel demand for housing
construction in the coming months.
Egypt- Long Products: Egypt reported lower long steel exports during the first
half of the year. This was due to inventory with suppliers and reported booked
order cycles. This trend continued in August 2023 as well. However, domestic
production levels of long steel remained stable. The execution of a number of
construction projects is being reported in the country that is expected to
increase the demand for long steel in Egypt in the coming months. The under-
construction Central Business District project in the new administrative capital of
the country is one such example. Additionally, France-based Alstom has received
a contract to build two automotive plants in Alexandria over the next three years
with an investment worth EUR 300 million (~USD 326 million).
 STEEL PRODUCTS IN EGYPT IN EGP
STEEL PRODUCTS IN EGYPT IN EGP
37000

32000

27000

22000

17000

12000
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb-
22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24

Rebar Long Products Flat Products

Sections/Beams Carbon Steel Pipe

PRODUCTS 12 MONTHS HISTORY 1 MONTH HISTORY 2 MONTHS FORECAST 6 MONTHS FORECAST

1 $= 31 EGP REBAR + 111 % -1% +1% -3%

LONG + 74 % +1% +2% -2%
FLAT + 56 % +1% +1% -2%
SECTIONS & BEAMS + 50 % -2% -1% 0%
CARBON STEEL PIPE + 51 % -2% -1% -1%
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
UAE- Rebar: In August 2023, steel rebar prices in the UAE remained more stable than that in
July 2023. This was due to the ability of suppliers to meet the growing domestic demand for
rebars from the building & construction industry. Moreover, there has been some stability in
the availability of rebar with global manufacturers gradually overcoming the adverse impact
of the Russia-Ukraine war on their production. Additionally, the launch of the We the UAE
2031 Vision that is aimed at carrying out different construction projects in the country
continues to boost its economic development. In addition, in early August 2023, the
National Program for Infrastructure Development (Salamah 365) was launched in the UAE
that is anticipated to surge the demand for steel rebar in the country in the coming months.
UAE- Sections & Beams: The growth of the construction industry in the UAE contributed
to the surged prices of construction materials such as sections/beams in the country in
August 2023. The UAE is witnessing an increase in the number of luxury residential
buildings and smart cities. Liberal trade policies and foreign investments are contributing
to the growth of the construction industry in the country and leading to the improvement
of its economy. This trend is expected to continue in the country in the coming months as
well. Construction companies in the UAE reported profits in the first half of 2023. For
instance, Emirates Stallions Group reported a net profit of approximately USD 162.5
million (approximately AED 597 million) in the first half of 2023 witnessing a surge of 831%
y-o-y. Moreover, Deyaar Development PJSC announced a 77% increase in profits reaching
approximately AED 118.5 million (approximately USD 32.3 million) in the first half of 2023
compared with approximately AED 66.9 million (approximately USD 18.2 million) y-o-y.
These results reflect the strong growth of the construction industry in the country that
subsequently surges the demand for sections/beams in the UAE.
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)
UAE- Flat Products: In August, a few business deals were witnessed in the U.A.E. For
instance, Namco Industries P Ltd, an Indian steel plate manufacturer, signed an
agreement with Metal Care Center FZC, a service center and distributor located in
Hamriyah Free Zone, Sharjah. This implies a trade agreement for imports of steel
plates in the country, which will boost supply and make the market more
competitive. In another instance, Emirates Steel Arkan (ESA) withdrew its proposal to
invest in Thyssenkrupp’s steel business citing business complexities and pension
liabilities. This implies that ASA will consider investing in other prospective steel mill
businesses worldwide, since they anticipate a growth in business, especially from
sustainable industries such as energy transmission and automotive.
UAE- Long Products: The UAE witnessed a moderate increase in long steel prices in
August 2023 compared to its prices in the previous month. This was mainly due to a
surge in scrap prices in the country. This price increase is also reflected in imports
from countries such as Turkey. However, the demand for long steel remained robust in
the UAE, with construction projects being executed in full swing, albeit at staggered
timing during the summer season. At the end of July 2023, Al Jazeera Steel Products
announced the groundbreaking ceremony of its first rolling mill for rail production in
Abu Dhabi. Such projects are anticipated to improve steel production in the country
during the next year as well.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
KSA- Rebars: Earlier this month, the Public Investment Fund—the sovereign wealth fund
of Saudi Arabia—announced that it is considering acquiring a stake in a major Saudi steel
producer (undisclosed) with a capacity of manufacturing 350,000 tons of rebar per
annum. Rebar producers reported price cuts in the country owing to a rise in steel
demand in Saudi Arabia. This move is anticipated to help domestic producers compete
with imports post the Eid holiday season. Moreover, with scheduled construction projects
underway, the demand for rebar is anticipated to surge in the country in the coming
months. Correspondingly, prices are anticipated to moderately increase in September.
Eversendai Corporation, a Malaysia-based company, announced this month that its
subsidiary in Saudi Arabia has secured projects for structural steel works. These projects
are expected to help the company in expanding its reach in the country. It also plans to set
up a new plant with a manufacturing capacity of 60,000 tons per annum near Riyadh to
cater to domestic demand for structural steel, including rebars.
KSA- Sections & Beams: Ongoing construction projects in Saudi Arabia contributed to the
demand for sections/beams in the country in August 2023. Housing projects have gained
precedence in the construction industry in Saudi Arabia in a bid to boost home ownership to
70% in the country by 2030. A surge in government initiatives towards building and
infrastructure projects, an increase in population, and the launch of new housing
development schemes have led to a rise in the demand for sections/beams in Saudi Arabia.
The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia formed ROSHN Real Estate to enhance the
construction of housing units in the country. It is overseeing various mega-construction
projects in Saudi Arabia. The country has been continuously expanding in terms of real estate
assets and value. An increase in the interest of both, locals, and expatriates in purchasing
realty in the country, as reported by the Real Estate General Authority (REGA), especially for
modular construction, is fueling the demand for sections/beams in Saudi Arabia.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)
KSA- Flat Products: The government of Saudi Arabia has shown significant interest in
investing in various construction projects focused on developing petrochemical
infrastructure. For instance, in June 2023, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Total Energies
secured Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) agreements for the Amiral
complex, a massive petrochemical facility expansion project worth USD 11 billion. The
project is expected to take place at the SATORP refinery in the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia. Due to weak domestic demand in China and India, the prices of hot rolled
coils are facing downward pressure. In response to this situation, buyers from the
Gulf Cooperation Council expect a price decline and are adopting a cautious
approach, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
KSA- Long Products: Ongoing construction projects such as NEOM in Saudi Arabia continue
to boost the long steel demand in the country. For instance, Hyundai Engineering &
Construction Company received an order worth USD 140 million for the construction of
140 transmission towers in the country. The company has another 16 ongoing construction
projects in Saudi Arabia. These include a contract for the expansion of a petrochemical
plant at the SATORP refinery in Jubail. Such projects are anticipated to boost the demand
for long steel in Saudi Arabia and its prices are expected to remain at the high levels of July
2023 in the coming months as well. Additionally, Hadeed Steel released its August 2023
prices of its steel products that seem to be at more stable levels than that of July 2023.
Prices are anticipated to remain at moderate levels owing to domestic supply matching
demand levels for the domestic market. Hence, long steel demand is also anticipated to
remain stable in Saudi Arabia in the coming months.
 ORDINARY PORTLAND CEMENT (OPC) GLOBALLY* - HISTORY & FORECAST (1/2)
KSA: The total utilization rate of the KSA cement sector stood at 66.3% in July, constant from June.
United Cement and Riyadh Cement reported the highest sales. The same trend is expected to have
GLOBAL OPC: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 continued in August. Prices remained stable, as the market demand eased out, and domestic supply was
MONTHS FORECAST adequate. Power transmission projects continued to be the predominant investment feature for the
104 Saudi government. For instance, Hyundai Engineering & Construction Company secured a USD 145
million contract to install power transmission lines in NEOM to Yanbu. The project is due to be completed
in 2027. Such projects will require other infrastructure and buildings to be constructed, and this is
103 expected to boost cement sales, and consequently maintain healthy price levels, in the country.

Egypt: Cement producers reported their H1 2023 earnings this month. Sinai Cement’s consolidated sales
102 doubled to USD 76.5 million, and the company reduced its net losses to USD 2.6 million compared to
2022. Meanwhile, South Valley Cement witnessed losses in H1 2023, amounting to EGP 76.2 million
(~USD 2.5 million) y-o-y. Also, Misr Cement’s profit reached EGP 63.7 million (~ USD 2.1 million) versus
101 EGP 85.7 million (~ USD 2.8 million). Infrastructural projects continue to be undertaken. For instance, the
country launched construction on its new East Port-Said Port terminal, this month. The General Authority
for the SC Zone and the Sky Investment and Reliance Logistics Consortium signed a contract for
100
developing the port in November 2022. Hence, cement sales are anticipated to remain stable, and prices
will reflect a moderate trend for the next few months owing to steady demand.
99
22 22 t-22 -22 -22 -23 -23 r-23 r-23 -23 -23 l-23 -23 -23 t-23 -23 -23 -24 -24 UAE: The UAE construction industry is making forefronts into converting the construction industry into a
g- p- v c n b y n Ju Aug S ep Oc v c n b
Au S e Oc No De Ja Fe M
a Ap Ma Ju No De Ja Fe more sustainable and productive business, ahead of the COP-28 conference in Dubai in November 2023.
There has been increasing activity in aiding the tourism and hospitality industries. The UAE government
has been cutting hotel and restaurant fees in a bid to promote hospitality and tourism. In line with this
announcement, IHG Hotels & Resorts, Britain, and Sharjah Asset Management, the investment arm of
GLOBAL* HISTORY GLOBAL* FORECAST Sharjah, signed a MoU to commence a new hotel in the emirate. Such developments are expected to
increase cement sales in the country. Prices are expected to remain competitive in the forthcoming
12 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTHS 6 MONTHS months.

- 0.7 % - 2.2 % 0% 0.1 % 0.3 % 0% Qatar: The real estate sector in Qatar showcased a positive, albeit slower trend during August. The
closure of the FIFA World Cup season has resulted in a slowdown of residential and commercial project
implementation. There has been some capital outlay in the market, as a result of large-scale construction
for the above event. In order to resolve this, the Qatar Central Bank is starting to encourage banks to
adopt international standards to recognize and address stressed and distressed borrowers. New
legislation would soon be implemented by the government in order to facilitate debt restructuring.
* GLOBAL AVERAGE OF: KSA-UAE-EGYPT-QATAR-MOROCCO-INDIA-CHINA-EUROPE Cement prices are likely to remain stable, in light of the overall slower pace of construction activity
during the second half of 2023.
 ORDINARY PORTLAND CEMENT (OPC) GLOBALLY* - HISTORY & FORECAST (2/2)

Morocco: According to the Ministry of National Territory Planning, Land Planning, Housing and City Policy, Moroccan cement deliveries by Asment Temara, Ciments de
l’Atlas, Ciments du Maroc, and LafargeHolcim Maroc in July 2023 increased by 23.9% y-o-y to 780,927 tons from 630,479 tons in July 2022. This signified the positive
sentiments in the construction market due to ongoing construction and infrastructure projects that are running on schedule. Hence, cement prices are likely to remain at
stable levels for the next few months.

India: The demand for cement has remained stable, yet low throughout the month, as compared to July. The market has witnessed significant potential for long-term
growth. In order to capitalize on this, cement manufacturers are proactively taking measures to tap into demand and remain ahead of the competition. Mergers &
acquisitions continue to be the foremost strategy undertaken by companies such as Ambuja Cements this month. The company announced the acquisition of Sanghi
Industries for a transaction value of USD 600 million. With this deal, Ambuja Cements, owned by the erstwhile Adani Group, would become the second-largest cement
producer in the country and is expected to remain ahead of the market in short- to medium-term. Companies such as UltraTech Cement Limited has set forward an
ambitious production capacity target of 200 million tons per annum. This announcement comes amidst sectorial consolidation, which has increased competition. The
company reported that it would look forward to aggressively expanding its market share amidst intense competition in the domestic market. With these announcements,
cement prices are likely to get more competitive in the coming months.

China: Similar to the steel industry, the Chinese cement industry also witnessed a downturn due to the economic slump attributed to the real estate sector crisis. Lower
profitability was also reported by cement companies in the country in H1 2023. For instance, Asia Cement (China) reported lower profit, down by 17% in H1 2023 y-o-y.
The cement market witnessed a price decline in August, similar to the past three months. Market demand experienced a seasonal decline due to the summer months.
Inventory remained high, and the real estate industry remained sluggish. Hence, prices are likely to continue witnessing a downward trend and are expected to stabilize with
the revival of infrastructural projects in the country.

Europe: Europe’s decarbonization strategy for the cement industry continued to be at the forefront of its investment activity. The EU has implemented the regulation for the
carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) under its emissions trading scheme (ETS). Under the CBAM, EU cement importers would be taxed for embedded CO2
emissions, equivalent to those levied against EU-based producers. Importers are expected to collect emissions data from October 01, 2023, and submit a report for the
fourth quarter of 2023 to EU authorities by January 31, 2024. Such policies are anticipated to positively impact the industry while delivering sustainability and profitability to
producers.
 NON-FERROUS METALS- COPPER
FORECAST
End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-months || 6-months || 12-months
- 1 % || - 7 % || + 5 %
End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
- 1 % || + 2 % || + 3 %
August 2023 witnessed a decline of 1.1% in the average global price of copper
compared with its cost in July 2023. The most significant factors influencing the
growth of the global copper market have been the dismal of the real estate sector of
China, as well as the pressure of inflation due to the higher value of the U.S. dollar
than its value in the first half of 2023. The policy measures undertaken by the U.S.
Federal Reserve to hike lending interest rates also dampened copper demand in a
number of regional markets such as North America and Asia Pacific. This demand is
anticipated to increase in the coming year, owing to the global economic transition
toward green technologies. Although the production of electric vehicles (EVs) is
anticipated to account for about two-thirds of the global copper demand this year,
industry experts opine that copper consumed by these vehicles is projected to reduce
from approximately 73 kilograms/unit this year to approximately 65 kilograms/unit in
2030. This is due to the lightweighting efforts being made worldwide to reduce the
weight of electric vehicles. However, the growing adoption of electric vehicles is
anticipated to significantly offset this, thereby resulting in surged demand for copper
in the future. With the new mining legislation implemented in Chile, several new
copper production expansions are anticipated to take place in the country in the
coming years. As such, a number of projects by major companies such as Rio Tinto
and BHP have been announced in Chile. This legislation reduces the tax to incentivize
the domestic production of copper that is anticipated to cater to the growing demand
for this metal from the renewable energy generation plants. Although mines in the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Panama, Botswana, Zambia, and Mongolia have the
presence of high-grade ore, the challenging political regimes make these countries
quite unstable when it comes to global supply. Moreover, the difficulty in carrying out
business operations and the lack of required mining technologies and expertise also
contribute to this instability. These geopolitical factors are anticipated to play a
significant role in shaping global prices and existing supply.
 NON-FERROUS METALS ALUMINUM

FORECAST End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change

1-month || 6-months || 12-months

- 1 % || - 12 % || 0%

End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 2 % || 0 % || + 7 %

In August 2023, there was a decrease of 0.7% in the prices of aluminum compared to July 2023 across the world. These prices witnessed a decline in the Midwest U.S.,
indicating a lack of demand for aluminum due to dampened investor confidence related to the global economic slowdown and prevailing high inflation. While the U.S.
automotive industry has contributed to a steady demand for this metal, other industries in the country are witnessing a lackluster demand for aluminum owing to the delay in
infrastructure funding by the government in the U.S. The prices of aluminum in Europe are also witnessing a shortfall owing to lowered demand for this metal from its
manufacturing industry. The aluminum prices at the main ports of Japan were relatively stable due to regional demand, albeit at a lower growth rate. This lower growth rate
can be attributed to the slow, yet muted demand in Asia Pacific. China also witnessed a marginal recovery in demand compared to the previous month, as its economy
continued to rebound. However, on the demand side, aluminum smelters such as Norsk Hydro and Alcoa reported a decline in sales due to the ongoing economic slowdown in
the EU, resulting in their lowered earnings in the second quarter of 2023. On the supply side, global inventory levels remained low for the first half of 2023 at 50 days, citing
reduced demand compared to the second half of 2022. It was observed that since a major portion of this global inventory comprised aluminum from Russia, consumers across
the world rejected the same owing to trade sanctions against the former due to its war with Ukraine. This led to reduced global inventory levels. Some smelters across the
world reported production halts due to high energy prices. For instance, Century Aluminum, a U.S.-based smelter, suspended production of its 250,000 tons per annum
smelter at the end of June 2023. Similarly, Romania-based Alro SA reported that its alumina plant with a production capacity of 600,000 tons per annum is scheduled to shut
down by September 2023. Neither smelters have announced the period of closure of their plants.
 BUNKERS- Oil Brent Barrel 12 Months History & 6 Months Forecast

FORECAST
End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months

+ 6 % || + 2 % || - 15 %

End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months

+ 4 % || + 6 % || + 13 %

Brent crude was priced at an average of approximately USD 85 per barrel in August 2023. Oil prices increased slightly in the first week of the month and remained relatively stable in the
second week. On 3 August 2023, Saudi Arabia announced oil production cuts of 1 million barrels per day till the end of September 2023. The government of Russia also announced a
reduction of oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day in September 2023. The aforementioned factors are expected to fuel the prices of Brent crude oil in the near future. Brent crude oil
prices continued to increase slightly as an effect of the announcement made by Saudi Aramco. On 7 August 2023, Saudi Aramco announced an increase in the official selling price of
Arab light crude oil grade to Asia by USD 0.30 per barrel for the month of September. In the second week of August 2023, Brent crude oil prices increased due to a decrease in crude oil
inventory by 5.9 million barrels for the week. In the third week of August 2023, Brent crude oil prices declined slightly after the Energy Information Administration reported a decline in
inventory by 6 million barrels for the week. A significant decline in global Brent crude oil inventories is expected to foster the growth of Brent crude oil prices in the coming months. The
U.S. oil and gas rig count has decreased significantly for the sixth time in a row, which indicates the future output and is expected to result in a tight global Brent crude oil supply. On 18
July 2023, Brent crude oil prices increased by 1% owing to the slowdown in the U.S. Brent crude oil production. Saudi Arabia also registered a Brent crude oil production of 9 million
barrels per day, which is cut of 1 million barrels per day in September 2023. In the fourth week of the month, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2% owing to China’s slow economic growth
as the world’s second-largest oil importer will restrain oil demand. Moreover, the U.S. federal interest rates are expected to negatively impact crude oil prices in the near future..
 MARINE FUEL – MGO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

MARINE FUEL MGO: 12 MONTHS MGO- MARINE GAS OIL

HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST
1,400 FORECAST Fujairah: End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1,300 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
1,200
1,100
1,000
+ 10 % || - 15 % || - 30 %
900
800 Fujairah: End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
700
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
600
500
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar Apr- May Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb-
22 22 22 22 22 23 23 -23 23 -23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24
+ 2 % || + 5 % || + 25 %
Fujairah Rotterdam
Rotterdam: End of Aug 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
MGO prices witnessed heavy fluctuations in the first week of the month as an effect of the announcement of revision in
International Maritime Organization greenhouse gas regulations (GHG) under which IMO members agreed to reduce GHG
emissions by 20pc and 30pc by 2030. According to MDI, in the MGO segment, Fujairah and Rotterdam ports were undervalued + 21 % || + 17 % || - 17 %
by 1 point respectively. The port of Houston decreased by 2 points whereas Singapore decreased by 1 point. On August 1, a
Swedish bunker firm, ScanOcean, announced collaboration with Neste to launch MGO with 0.1 sulfur comprising bio-based Rotterdam: End of Aug 2023 percentage (%)
feedstock. Increasing global focus on reduction of GHG emissions can hinder the growth of MGO prices in near future. On forecast change
August 10, Minerva Bunkering announced expansion in Saudi Arabia to serve vessels from King Abdulla Port which interlinks 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
three continents. Moreover, King Abdullah Port is one the fastest growing ports. Minerva will supply VLSFO, MGO, and HSFO to
this location. Increasing global footprint of major MGO suppliers is expected to increase the supply of MGO in the market and
witness decrease in the prices. According to Panama Maritime Authority (PMA), bunker fuel sales at Panama Bunker decreased 0 % || + 3 % || + 23 %
by 7.9% in July 2023. The Pacific side of Panama announced MGO sales of 67,055 tons in the month of July 2023. The
decreasing delivery of MGO from major ports in July resulted in heavy fluctuations in the prices of MGO in August. In Fujairah
port, sales in July increased 3.8% higher than the average of previous 12 months. MGO increased by 34.4% to 1,387 m3. Heavy
demand for MGO in the Middle East led to increase in prices in the month of August. Moreover, production cuts by major
marine oil supplier countries are expected to drive the growth of MGO prices in the coming months.
 MARINE FUEL - VLSFO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil)

MARINE FUEL VLSFO: 12 MONTHS HISTORY
& 6 MONTHS FORECAST Fujairah: End of July 2023 percentage (%) historical change
900 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
FORECAST 11 % || 0 % || - 24 %
850

800 Fujairah: End of July 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

750 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 2 % || + 7 % || + 16 %
700

650
Rotterdam: End of July 2023 percentage (%) historical change
600 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
550 + 10 % || + 5 % || - 17 %
500
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Rotterdam: End of July 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
Fujairah Rotterdam + 3 % || + 6 % || + 16 %

The price of VLSFO witnessed significant growth in the first week of the month. The price of VLSFO increased by USD 26 from USD 583 p/mt in July to USD 609 on August 1. In the
second week of the month, VLSFO prices witnessed a positive trend; prices in Rotterdam increased by USD 13.50/mt to reach USD 621/mt; at Fujairah, prices advanced by USD
15.50/mt to reach USD 638.50/mt. On August 15, Monfort launched VLSFO bunkering supply at Fujairah port after acquiring Uniper Energy’s refinery U.A.E. hub. Monfort will offer
VLSFO, LSMGO, and HSFO to the location. The firm is now renamed as Fort Energy Refining Middle East DMCC which operates 65,000 b/d at the port of Fujairah which produces
more than 30 million barrels per year of bunker fuel. According to MDI, VLSFO prices in Singapore emerged as an overprice zone which surged by 4 points. Moreover, prices in
other ports like Fujairah and Rotterdam increased by 2 points as weekly average. On the other hand, Houston registered a significant loss of 16 points. VLSFO prices at top ports
registered a negative trend in the last week of the month. Prices at Rotterdam port declined by USD 9.50/mt to USD 592.50/mt and at Fujairah they fell by USD 7.50/mt to USD
623/mt. VLSFO prices are expected to decline in the coming months as market players are focused on increasing supply at major ports.
 LOGISTICS- World Container Index (WCI)
FORECAST
End of July percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
+ 17 % || - 11 % || - 72 %
End of July 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 2 % || - 4 % || 0 %
After a consistent decline for almost two years, the World Container Index (WCI)
witnessed a rise of over 17.0% in August 2023. Container costs increased by ten
times during the pandemic period on account of clogged logistics network and
panic amongst consumers, which compelled them to hoard household essentials.
For the past two years, the prices of containers have been coming down to reach
prepandemic levels, which was aided by subdued consumer spending and high
inventory levels. The recent rise in prices is due to a surge in demand, causing
restricted space availability for cargo, thus giving leverage to shipping companies
to raise prices. The rise is mainly attributable to the Shanghai to New York and
Shanghai to Los Angeles routes, which witnessed a monthly average increase of
over 21% and 24%, respectively. The cost of shipping goods from Asia to the U.S.
has been rising for the last six months. The established shipping lines raised their
prices after witnessing the freefall for almost two years, along with retailers
pulling back their orders due to weakening demand, thus affecting the earnings
of
shipping lines. Another reason behind the rise is the Panama Canal’s low water
level. A congestion was reported, and a ship had to offload containers before
entering the canal. This is expected to have further detrimental consequences. As
of August 2023, the WCI is marking a return to normal prices, but, however,
remains higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of USD 1,420. Despite this
rise, the container shipping industry is anticipated to face risks owing to an
imbalance in supply and demand. It is anticipated that the peak season demand
is expected to be suppressed by the prolonged destocking activities of high U.S.
inventory levels. Furthermore, capacity additions in the container fleet are
another factor putting pressure on shipping rates. As a result, the recent surge in
costs is anticipated to be short-lived. According to BIMCO, a Denmark-based
international shipping association for shipowners, new container ships have
added a record capacity equivalent to 1.2 million containers from January to July
2023. On the other hand, carriers like A.P. Moller-Maersk have reduced supply by
eliminating some of its capacity. However, new container ships are expected to be
seen in 2024. The tide of overcapacity is anticipated to impact global shipping
rates.
Glossary
Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons.
Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the
biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea.

Copper futures are widely traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), at the COMEX and on the Multi-Commodity Exchange in
India. The standard contract is 25,000 lbs. Copper is the third most widely used metal in the world. Chile accounts for over one third of
world's copper production followed by China, Peru, United States, Australia, Indonesia, Zambia, Canada and Poland. The biggest
importers of copper are China, Japan, India, South Korea and Germany.

Aluminum futures are mostly traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the
Shanghai Futures Exchange. The standard future contract size is 5 tons. Aluminum is used widely in aerospace applications,
packaging, automobiles and railroad cars and as a construction material. The biggest producers of aluminum are: The Aluminum
Corporation of China (Chalco), Alcoa and Alumina Ltd, Rio Tinto from Australia, UC Rusal of Russia, Xinfa from China, Norsk
Hydro ASA from Norway and South 32 from Australia. China accounts for nearly 60 percent of global aluminum output. The biggest
resources of bauxites, the raw material for aluminum are located in Australia, China and Guinea.
Glossary
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is the most important cement type as it is widely used and all the research and tests on cement are
carried out on OPC in general. Ordinary portland cement is a cementing material obtained by fine grinding of portland clinkers with a
little amount of gypsum to adjust the setting time and prevent flash setting.

Brent Crude oil is a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. While Brent Crude oil is sourced from the North Sea the
oil production coming from Europe, Africa and the Middle East flowing West tends to be priced relative to this oil.

Drewry World Container Index is a composite of 40-foot ocean container freight rates on 8 major route to/from the US, Europe and
Asia as assessed by Drewry Maritime Research. This is primarily used as a benchmark for 40-foot ocean container spot rates across the
various trade lanes that it represents.