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Operating Exposure Presentation
Operating Exposure Presentation
G
EXPOSURE
- “Coyote is always waiting. And Coyote is always hungry”
01
Introduction
1.1. What is Operating Exposure?
Introduction
Referred to as
Competitive Exposure/Strategic Exposure.
Determinants
Determinants
On net, although having some cash inflows in both Turkish lira and euros, the
dominant currency is the ringgit
Static vs. Dynamic Operating Exposure
o 2012, the euro depreciates in the market against the Turkish lira.
o At the same time, the Malaysian government continues the gradual
revaluation of the ringgit.
No immediate impact,
May suffer from rising
Effects on profit Fall in short-run but may change over the
input costs
medium to long term
Operating and Financing Cash Flows
MNE’s Cash Flow
o rent & lease payments for facilities and o principal and interest
equipment usage o new equity investments and dividends
o royalty & license fees for technology &
intellectual property usage
o assorted management fees for services
provided
Operating and Financing Cash Flows
MNE’s Cash Flow
Definition of
Not included Included
exposure
Sensitivity of
the firm to
other key
macroecono
mic
variables.
Macroecono
mic
uncertainty:
E.g. Changes
Definition:
The impact of unexpected exchange rate changes the value of the firm.
=> Measure the impact on present value of several next years’ OCF.
OCF’s Principal
Drivers
Sale prices
Sales volume
Aidan Turkey’s Case
Reminder:
6.21 6.4
Lira/Euro Lira/Euro
What to do now?
And Why?
Case 1: Depreciation (all variables remain constant)
Base case
● Sales volume: 1,000,000 ● Sales volume: 1,000,000
● Sales price per unit: 80.50 Lira ● Sales price per unit: 80.50 Lira
● Direct cost per unit: 60.50 Lira ● Direct cost per unit: 60.50 Lira
● Income tax: 20% ● Income tax: 20%
● Exchange rate: 6.21 Lira/Euro ● Exchange rate: 6.4 Lira/Euro
● Days sales outstanding: 45 days ● Days sales outstanding: 45 days
● Days sales in Inventory: 10 days ● Days sales in Inventory: 10 days
● Days payable outstanding: 38 days ● Days payable outstanding: 38 days
Present value @ 15% Present value @ 15%
6,625,501 euros 6,428,805 euros
Base case
● Sales volume: 1,000,000 ● Sales volume: 1,100,000
● Sales price per unit: 80.50 Lira ● Sales price per unit: 88.55 Lira
● Direct cost per unit: 60.50 Lira ● Direct cost per unit: 63.53 Lira
● Income tax: 20% ● Income tax: 20%
● Exchange rate: 6.21 Lira/Euro ● Exchange rate: 6.4 Lira/Euro
● Days sales outstanding: 45 days ● Days sales outstanding: 45 days
● Days sales in Inventory: 10 days ● Days sales in Inventory: 10 days
● Days payable outstanding: 38 days ● Days payable outstanding: 38 days
Present value @ 15% Present value @ 15%
6,625,501 euros 9,059,604.9 euros
3: Sales price increases 6.40 82.96 1,000,000 60.50 6,986,942.3 361,441.3 5.45%
4: Price, cost and volume
6.40 88.55 1,100,000 63.53 9,059,604.9 2,434,103.9 36.74%
increase
03
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
OF OPERATING EXPOSURE
Strategic Management
Anticipate and influence the effect of
Objective unexpected changes in exchange rates on
a firm’s future cash flows.
A U.S. based -
A clothing retailer expands into the
firm issues
home goods market.
Examples A restaurant chain opens a new
more debt and
equity in the
location in a different city.
Asian market.
Strategic Management
Permits the firm to react either Does not require to predict
actively or passively, depending disequilibrium but only to
on management’s risk recognize it when it occurs
preferences, to opportunities
presented by disequilibrium
conditions
Marketing
PPP Marginal shifts
Purchasing Power effort
Parity is in Can be strengthened
Sourcing raw materials,
disequilibrium because of price
components or finished products
competitiveness
EXAMPLES
Intense import competition in its domestic
market from competing firms producing in
countries undervalued currencies
Purely domestic firm in Operating Exposure
PROBLEMS
Does not have the option to react to an
international disequilibrium condition
Example
04
Proactive Management of
Operating Exposure
Most common proactive policies
01 02 03
Matching currency cash flows Risk sharing agreements Back - to - back or parallel loans
04 05
Cross currency swap Contractual approaches
Matching Currency Cash Flows
One way to offset an anticipated continuous long-term
exposure to a particular currency is to acquire debt
denominated in that currency.
Goods and services
Canadian dollars
PREDICTABLE
and CONSTANT
U.S Corporation Canadian Buyers
eb t
rs d
d o l la
ad i an
Ca n
Canadian dollars
Canadian dollars
Canadian dollars
FORD MAZDA
If the exchange rate fall out of this
range, Ford and Mazda will share
the difference equally.
FORD MAZDA
The spot exchange rate: ¥110/$.
FORD MAZDA
FORD would pay to Mazda:
[ = $222,222.22
FORD’s Savings:
$227,272.73 - $222,222.22 = $5,050.51
FORD MAZDA
Risk – Sharing Agreements
In use for 50 years
On world market
During 1960s
Become rarity – Bretton
Woods Agreement
During 1970s
firms with long-term customer-supplier
relationships across borders have returned to
some old ways of maintaining mutually
beneficial long-term trade
Back – to- Back or Parallel Loans
A back-to-back loan, also referred to as a parallel loan or
credit swap, occurs when two business firms in separate
countries arrange to borrow each other’s currency for a
specific period of time.
The Foreign Exchange Market
Conducted outside
Spot quotations may be used as
the reference point for
determining the amount of
funds to be swapped.
Such a swap creates a
covered hedge against
exchange loss, since each
company, on its own books,
borrows the same currency
it repays.
Awesome
words!
British pounds Dutch euros
loan to Dutch’s loan to British’s
British subsidiary Dutch subsidiary
Dutch euros
loan to British’s
Dutch subsidiary
British pounds
loan to Dutch’s
British subsidiary
Equivalent amount
Middleman
Firm A Firm B
d
rs e arn e
e d o lla
t wi th th
ack d eb
Pa y
b U.S Financial Market
Japanese Firm
U.S Buyers
Yen – denominated debt services payment
“paying yen” and “receiving dollars”
Middleman
Ability
To hedge
“unhedgeable”
Merck Company
The predictability of the firm’s The predictability of the firm’s
future cash flows competitors’ responses to
exchange rate changes
relatively predictable long-run
revenue streams due to the product- As a U.S.-based exporter to foreign
niche nature of the pharmaceuticals markets, markets in which sales
industry levels by product are relatively
predictable and prices are often
regulated by government, Merck
can accurately predict net long-
Ability term cash flows in foreign
currencies five and ten years into
To hedge the future.
“unhedgeable”
Merck has purchased over-the-counter (OTC) long-term put options on foreign currencies versus the
U.S. dollar as insurance against potential lost earnings from exchange rate changes.
THE END
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