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AP Statistics - Probability - Updated
AP Statistics - Probability - Updated
Mrs. Lerner
Charlotte Catholic High School
With some updates by
Dr. Davidson
Mallard Creek High School
Random Phenomena
1. Are uncertain in the short run
2. Exhibit a consistent pattern in
the long run
Note the dual aspect
P A and B P A B
P A or B P A B
Probability Rules - 7
When P(A)>0, the conditional probability of B
given A is:
winning
What is the probability that Sue
will win?
2. If three people, Joe, Betsy, and Sue, play
a game in which Joe has a 25% chance of
winning and Betsy has a 40% chance of
winning, what is the probability that Sue
will win?
P Sue 1 .25 .4
1 .65
.35
4. A summer resort rents rowboats to customers
but does not allow more than four people to a
boat. Each boat is designed to hold no more
than 800 pounds.
Suppose the distribution of the weight of adult
males who rent boats, including their clothes and
gear, is normal with a mean of 190 pounds and
standard deviation of 10 pounds.
If the weights of individual passengers are
independent, what is the probability that a
group of four adult male passengers will
exceed the acceptable weight limit of 800
pounds?
X 190
X 10
T 4 X
4 190
760
X 190
X 10
T 4 X T2 X2 X2 X2 X2
4 190 102 10 2 10 2 10 2
760 400
T 20
X 190
X 10
T 4 X T2 X2 X2 X2 X2
4 190 102 10 2 10 2 10 2
760 400
T 20
normalcdf 800,1E 99, 760, 20
P exceed 800 lbs 0.023
The following table shows the frequencies of political affiliations in
the age ranges listed from a random sample of adult citizens in a
particular city.
X x1 p1 x 2 p 2 x 3 p 3 x k p k
x pi i
Discrete Random Variables
Variance of a Discrete R. V. –
X2 x1 X 2 p1 x 2 X 2 p 2 x 3 X 2 p 3 x k X 2 p k
x i X 2 p i
Continuous Random Variables
Continuous R. V. – takes all values in an
interval of numbers
◦We look at its distribution
using a density curve
◦The probability of any event
is the area under the density
curve in that interval.
Rules for Means
1. If X is an R. V. and a & b are
fixed numbers, then the
mean
μa+bX = a +bμX
X E X
1 5 25
100 50 0
6 36 26
$23.61
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers – The long run relative
frequency of repeated independent trials gets
closer and closer to the true relative
frequency as the number of trials increases.
Binomial Distributions
Binomial Distribution – the distribution of the
count X successes in the binomial setting.
B(n,p) where n is the number of observations
and p is the probability of success
Binomial Distributions
Use binompdf(n,p,X) to find the probability
of a single value of X, such as P(X = 3).
P(X ≤ 3).
Binomial Distributions
np
np1 p
13. Pepsi is running a sales promotion in
which 12% of all bottles have a “FREE” logo
under the cap. What is the probability
that you find two free cans in a 6-pack?
13. Pepsi is running a sales promotion in
which 12% of all bottles have a “FREE” logo
under the cap. What is the probability
that you find two free cans in a 6-pack?
6
P X 2 .12 .88
2 4
2
13. Pepsi is running a sales promotion in
which 12% of all bottles have a “FREE” logo
under the cap. What is the probability
that you find two free cans in a 6-pack?
6
P X 2 .12 .88
2 4
2
binompdf 6,.12, 2
P X 2 .13
14. The National Association of Retailers
reports that 62% of all purchases are
now made by credit card; you think
this is true at your store as well. On a
typical day you make 20 sales.
a. Let X represent the number of
customers who use a credit card on a
typical day. What is the probability
model for X?
14. The National Association of Retailers
reports that 62% of all purchases are
now made by credit card; you think
this is true at your store as well. On a
typical day you make 20 sales.
a. Let X represent the number of
customers who use a credit card on a
typical day. What is the probability
model for X?
X np X np 1 p
20 .62 12 .62 .38
12.4 2.17
14. The National Association of Retailers
reports that 62% of all purchases are
now made by credit card; you think
this is true at your store as well. On a
typical day you make 20 sales.
c. What is the probability that on a typical
day at least half of your customers
use a credit card?
14. The National Association of Retailers
reports that 62% of all purchases are
now made by credit card; you think
this is true at your store as well. On a
typical day you make 20 sales.
c. What is the probability that on a typical
day at least half of your customers
use a credit card?
P X 10 1 P X 9
.9077
1 binomcdf (20,.62,9)
19. The volumes of soda in quart soda
bottles can be described by a Normal
model with a mean of 32.3 oz and a
standard deviation of 1.2 oz. What is the
probability that a randomly selected
bottle has a volume less than 32 oz?
There are typos in the next slide:
The z score calculation should read:
And
Normalcdf(-E99, 32, 32.3, 1.2)
The volumes of soda in quart soda bottles
19.
can be described by a Normal model
N(32.3, 1.2) a mean of 32.3 oz and a
standard deviation of 1.2 oz.
What is the probability that the volume of a
randomly selected bottle has a less than 32
oz?
32.3 32
P x 32 P z
1.2
P z .1429
.4013
normalcdf (1E 99,32,32.1,1.2)
20. A bank's loan officer rates applicants for
credit. The ratings can be described by
a Normal model with a mean of 200 and a
standard deviation of 50. If an applicant
is randomly selected, what is the
probability that the rating is between
200 and 275?
20. A bank's loan officer rates applicants for
credit. The ratings can be described by
a Normal model with a mean of 200 and a
standard deviation of 50. If an applicant
is randomly selected, what is the
probability that the rating is between
200 and 275?
P 200 x 275 .4332
Sampling Distributions
Sampling distribution – the distribution of
values taken by a statistic in all possible
samples of the same size from the same
population
Sampling Distributions of
Sample Proportions
Provided that the sampled values are
independent and the sample size is large
enough, the sampling distribution of p̂ is
modeled by a Normal model with mean p̂ p
and standard deviation SD pˆ p .1 p
n
Assume that 12% of students at a university
wear contact lenses. We randomly pick 200
students.
◦ What is the mean of the proportion of students in
this group who may wear contact lenses?
◦ What is the standard deviation of the proportion of
students in this group who may wear contact
lenses?
Assume that 12% of students at a university
wear contact lenses. We randomly pick 200
students.
◦ What is the mean of the proportion of students in
this group who may wear contact lenses?
◦ What is the standard deviation of the proportion of
students in this group who may wear contact
lenses?
.12
.12 .88
200
.023
Sampling Distribution of a
Sample Mean
Suppose that x-bar is the mean of an SRS of
size n drawn from a large population with
mean μ and standard deviation σ.
Then the
σ /√n.
The scores of individual students on the ACT
have a normal distribution with mean 18.6
and standard deviation 5.9. At Northside
High, 76 seniors take the test. If the scores
at this school have the same distribution as
national scores, what are the mean and
standard deviation of the distribution of
sample means for these 76 students?
The scores of individual students on the ACT
have a normal distribution with mean 18.6
and standard deviation 5.9. At Northside
High, 76 seniors take the test. If the scores
at this school have the same distribution as
national scores, what are the mean and
standard deviation of the average (sample
mean) for the 76 students?
18.6
5.9
76
.6768