IB A&I

Ch. 7: Quantifying Uncertainty

Probability, binomial and normal
distributions
7.1 Theoretical and Experimental
Probability
Skills Check
Skills Check
Skills Check
Subjective Probability
Based on past experiences and opinions rather than formal calculations.

What are the chances it rains tomorrow?

What’s the probability a fight breaks out in the hallway?

What’s the probability Mr. Hodges spills coffee on himself?

*Not particularly valuable

Experimental Probability
Experiment: a process by which you obtain an observation

Trials: Repeating an experiment a number of times

Outcome: A possible result of an experiment

Event: An outcome or set of outcomes

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, always

denoted by U
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical Probability gives you a way to quantify probability that does not
require carrying out a large number of trials.

“What you would expect to happen”

Example
Gambler’s Fallacy
Making Predictions with Theoretical Prob.
Example
Two-way Table Example
HW: 7A (pg. 306) and 7B (pg. 309-310)