14: Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing
• Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether a statement about the value of
a population parameter should or should not be rejected.
• The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative assumption about a population
parameter.
• The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the opposite of what is stated in the null
hypothesis.
• The hypothesis testing procedure uses data from a sample to test the two competing
statements indicated by H0 and Ha.

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Stating a Hypothesis
• A significance test starts with a careful statement of the claims we want to compare.
 The null hypothesis (H0)
 The alternative hypothesis (Ha)

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Stating the hypothesis
The null hypothesis
• The claim tested by a statistical test is called the null hypothesis (H0).

• The test is designed to assess the strength of the evidence against the null
hypothesis.

• Often the null hypothesis is a statement of “no difference.”

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Stating the hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis
• The claim about the population that we are trying to find evidence for is the alternative hypothesis
(Ha).

• The alternative is one-sided if it states that a parameter is larger or smaller than the null hypothesis
value.

• It is two-sided if it states that the parameter is different from the null value (it could be either smaller
or larger).

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Many applications of hypothesis testing involve an attempt to gather evidence in support of a
research hypothesis.

• In such cases, it is often best to begin with the alternative hypothesis and make it the conclusion that
the researcher hopes to support.

• The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true is made if the sample data provide sufficient
evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be rejected.

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Example
• A new teaching method is developed that is believed to be better than the current
method.
• Alternative Hypothesis
 The new teaching method is better.

• Null Hypothesis
 The new method is no better than the old method.

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Example
• A new sales force bonus plan is developed in an attempt to increase sales.

• Alternative Hypothesis
 The new bonus plan increase sales.

• Null Hypothesis
 The new bonus plan does not increase sales.

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Example
• A new drug is developed with the goal of lowering blood pressure more than the
existing drug.
• Alternative Hypothesis
 The new drug lowers blood pressure more than the existing drug.
• Null Hypothesis
 The new drug does not lower blood pressure more than the existing drug.

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be Challenged
• We might begin with a belief or assumption that a statement about the value of a
population parameter is true.
• We then using a hypothesis test to challenge the assumption and determine if there
is statistical evidence to conclude that the assumption is incorrect.
• In these situations, it is helpful to develop the null hypothesis first.

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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Example
• The label on a soft drink bottle states that it contains at least 67.6 fluid ounces.

• Null Hypothesis
 The label is correct. ounces.

• Alternative Hypothesis
 The label is incorrect. ounces.

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 Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses
about a Population Mean
• The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis.
• In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population mean must take one of the following
three forms (where is the hypothesized value of the population mean).

𝐻 0 : 𝜇 ≥ 𝜇0 𝐻 0 : 𝜇 ≤ 𝜇0 𝐻 0 : 𝜇=𝜇 0
determines the lower 𝐻 𝑎 : 𝜇< 𝜇0 𝐻 𝑎 : 𝜇> 𝜇0 𝐻 𝑎 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0
or upper tail of the
distribution
One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed
(lower-tail) (upper-tail)

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Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Example
• A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive emergency medical services in the
world. Operating in a multiple hospital system with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the
service goal is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.

• The director of medical services wants to formulate a hypothesis test that could use a sample of
emergency response times to determine whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is
being achieved.

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Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Example
• Null Hypothesis:
 The emergency service is meeting the response goal; no follow-up action is
necessary.
H0: 
• Alternative Hypothesis:
 The emergency service is not meeting the response goal; appropriate follow-up
action is necessary.
Ha:
• where:  = mean response time for the population of medical emergency requests

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Type I Error
• Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data, we must allow for the
possibility of errors.
• A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
• The probability of making a Type I error when the null hypothesis is true as an
equality is called the level of significance.
• Applications of hypothesis testing that only control the Type I error are often called
significance tests.

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Type II Error
• A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.
• It is difficult to control for the probability of making a Type II error.
• Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II error by using “do not reject H0” and
not “accept H0”.

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Type I and Type II Errors
Population Condition

H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)

Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Decision

Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error Decision
(Conclude m > 12)

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p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
• The p-value is the probability, computed using the test statistic, that measures the
support (or lack of support) provided by the sample for the null hypothesis.
• If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance , the value of the test
statistic is in the rejection region.
• Reject H0 if the p-value .

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Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Known
p-Value < a ,
so reject H0.

a = .10 Sampling
distribution
𝑥 −𝜇 0
of 𝑧=
p-value 𝜎 / √𝑛
72

z
z = -za = 0
-1.46 -1.28

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Suggested Guidelines for Interpreting p-Values
• Less than .01
 Overwhelming evidence to conclude Ha is true.
• Between .01 and .05
 Strong evidence to conclude Ha is true.
• Between .05 and .10
 Weak evidence to conclude Ha is true.
• Greater than .10
 Insufficient evidence to conclude Ha is true.

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Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Known

Sampling
distribution a = .04
𝑥 −𝜇 0
of𝑧= p-Value < a ,
𝜎 / √𝑛 so reject H0.

p-Value
11

z
0 za = z=
1.75 2.29

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Steps in Hypothesis Testing
p-value Approach
• Step 1: Develop the null and alternative hypotheses
• Step 2: Specify the level of significance
• Step 3: Collect the sample data and compute the value of the test statistic.
• Step 4: Use the value of the test statistic to compute the p-value.
• Step 5: Reject H0 if p-value .
Conditions for Valid Conclusions
i. The population distribution is
normal, OR
ii. The sample size, (CLT)

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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: Known

Example: Metro EMS

• The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies
were tabulated. The sample mean is 13.25 minutes. The population
standard deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
• The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of
significance, to determine whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less
is being achieved.

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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
Known
p –Value Approach
• Step 1. Develop the hypotheses.
H0: 
Ha:
• Step 2. Specify the level of significance. a = .05

• Step 3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

𝑥 −𝜇 0 13.25− 12
𝑧= = =2.47
𝜎 / √ 𝑛 3.2/ √ 40
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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
𝜎 Known
P-Value Approach
• Step 4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932.

p–value = 1 - .9932 = .0068

• Step 5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .0068 < a = .05, we reject H0.

There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting the
response goal of 12 minutes.
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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
𝜎 Known
p-Value < a ,
P-Value Approach so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution a = .05
𝑥 −𝜇 0
of𝑧=
𝜎 / √𝑛
p-value


z
0 za = z=
1.645 2.47

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A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses
About a Population Proportion
• The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis.
• In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population proportion p must take
one of the following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized value of the population
proportion).

H 0 : p > p0 H 0 : p < p0 H 0 : p = p0
H a : p < p0 H a : p > p0 H a : p ≠ p0

One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower tail) (upper tail)
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Tests About a Population Proportion
• Test Statistic
𝑝 − 𝑝0
𝑧=
𝜎𝑝
 where:

𝜎 𝑝=
√
𝑝0 (1− 𝑝 0)
𝑛

assuming np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5

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Tests About a Population Proportion
• Rejection Rule: p –Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value < a

Conditions for Valid Conclusions

i. The population distribution is
normal, OR
ii. np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5 (CLT)

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Videos on p-value
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTZ8YKgD0MI
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTABmVSAtT0

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Exercise 1
In a study entitled How Undergraduate Students Use Credit Cards, it was reported that undergraduate students have a
mean credit card balance of $3173. This figure was an all-time high and had increased 44% over the previous five years.
Assume that a current study is being conducted to determine if it can be concluded that the mean credit card balance
for undergraduate students has continued to increase compared to the original report. Based on previous studies, use a
population standard deviation .
a) State the null and alternative hypotheses.

b) What is the p-value for a sample of 180 undergraduate students with a sample mean credit card balance of $3325?

c) Using a .05 level of significance, what is your conclusion?

Since p-val reject . The population mean credit card balance has increased compared to $3173

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Exercise 2
Last year, 46% of business owners gave a holiday gift to their employees. A survey of business owners conducted this year indicates that
35% plan to provide a holiday gift to their employees. Suppose the survey results are based on a sample of 60 business owners.
a) How many business owners in the survey plan to provide a holiday gift to their employees this year?

b) Suppose the business owners in the sample did as they plan. Compute the p-value for a hypothesis test that can be used to
determine if the proportion of business owners providing holiday gifts had decreased from last year.

c) Using a .05 level of significance, would you conclude that the proportion of business owners providing gifts decreased? What is the
smallest level of significance for which you could draw such a conclusion?
We can reject , and conclude : the proportion of business owners providing gifts has decreased from last year. The smallest level of
significance to draw this conclusion is 0.0436.

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Practice Problems
• Practice Problem Set #11

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