Energy Systems Modeling

Energy Demand

Felix Amankwah Diawuo

PhD.
How do we meet the energy services needs?
Energy
Demand

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From services to end-use technologies
Industry
• Heat (Boilers and Industrial Ovens using fuel, diesel, gas, electricity)
• Machinery (electricity)
Agriculture
• Pumps (electricity, diesel)
• Machinery (diesel, electricity)
Services
• Thermal comfort (Chillers, Boilers and HVAC systems using electricity, gas)
• Lighting (electricity)
• Hot Water (Boilers using gas, electricity)
Residential
• Food Conservation (electricity)
• Thermal Comfort (Heaters and HVAC systems gas, electricity, biomass)
• Entertainment (electricity)
• Hot Water (Boilers using gas, electricity, solar)
• Cooking (Ovens and stoves using gas, electricity, wood)

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End-use technologies efficiency
Energy that is transferred in the form and
quantity required

Useful energy
𝜂=
Final energy

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Residential example
Hot water (40 L / per day / per person for one year): 2300 kWh
• Gas boiler: 2900 kWh (80%)
• Electric Boiler: 2500 kWh (90%)
• Solar thermal (1400-1600 kWh year) +
• Gas boiler: 1100 kWh
• Electric Boiler: 1000 kWh

SEDBUK rating KNOWLEDGE INTEGRITY IMPACT

Heating water with gas or electricity?
Heating one liter of water from 20º to 100º

Energy
• 1000gx4,2Jx80º = 336 kJ
• Electric Boiler = 1000W*336s = 93 Wh =0,093kWh
• Primary Energy for Electricity Production (40% efficiency) = 0,233kWh
• Gas boiler = 0,093kWh
• Pirimary energy from Gas (80% efficiency)= 0,116kWh

Cost
• Electricity (plain tariff 0,13€/kWh) = 0,03€
• Gas (LisboaGas tariff 0,07€/kWh) = 0,008€

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Incandescent bulb or fluorescent bulb
1 lumen - SI unit for luminous flux

• 60 W incandescent bulb – 800 lm

• 9-15 W compact fluorescent bulb – 800 lm

EU Energy efficiency policies

• From September 1st 2010 lighting equipment
must be labelled primarily in terms of lumens,
instead of watts of electricity consumed.
• This change is a result of the EU's Eco-
design Directive for
Energy-using Products (EuP).
• restricting incandescent lamps in Europe by
2012
• low efficiency halogen lamps by 2016

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Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency
Energy Conservation refers to the reduction in the amount of energy consumed
in a process or system, or by an organization or society, through
• economy,
• elimination of waste,
• rational use.
Eliminate stand-by is a energy conservation measure
Using natural light instead of artificial light

Energy Efficiency refers to getting more use out of the same amount of energy
source
• Using more efficient appliances
• Using alternative energy sources
• Using alternative processes
• Replace light bulbs by fluorescent lights, controlling light intensity
• Heating hater with solar energy
• Heating with gas instead of electricity

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IEA Energy Technologies Perspective 2010

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IEA Energy Technologies Perspective 2010 to
2012

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IEA Energy Technologies Perspective 2010 to
2012

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IEA Energy Technologies Perspective 2014

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Energy Efficient Abatement Curve (2009)

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 d
1 (1
CCE 
Cost of conserved energy Annual energy d )
n

savings

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Rebound Effect
Implementing energy efficiency implies energy
conservation?
Rebound effect describe the range of mechanisms that reduce or offset the
expected savings after a new technology improvement that is supposed to
increase efficiency
• can be measured as the ratio of the lost benefit to the expected benefit
succeeding
an improvement

Example
• If one replaces a 100 watt incandescent lamp for a 20 watt fluorescent equivalent
lamp, the expected savings are of 80%. But if in fact if only a reduction of 60% is
verified, that means that the rebound effect is 25%, i.e. only 75% of the expected
savings are achieved.

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Types of rebound effect

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Will energy efficiency measures lead to energy
consumption reduction? (UKERC)
Evidence suggests that economy-wide rebound effects will be at least 10% and
often higher
Household heating, household cooling and personal automotive transport in
developed countries, the direct rebound effect is likely to be less than 30% and
may be closer to 10% for transport.
• Direct rebound effects for these energy services are likely to decline in the future as
demand saturates.
• Improvements in energy efficiency should therefore achieve 70% or more of the
reduction in energy consumption projected using engineering principles.
• indirect effects mean that the economy-wide reduction in energy consumption will
be less.
Few studies of rebound effects in developing countries
Should be taken into account when developing energy efficiency policy

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Will energy efficiency measures lead to energy consumption reduction? (Azevedo et
al, 2013

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Final Energy
Consumption
World view
TFC – By Region

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TFC – By Fuel

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TFC by fossil and sector (2011)
Coal Oil Gas

Electricity

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Demand Side
Management
What is it?
cooperative activities between the utility and its customers (sometimes with the
assistance of third parties such as energy services companies and various
trade allies) to implement options for increasing the efficiency of energy
utilization, with resulting benefits to the customer, utility and society as a
whole.
• Education programs (eliminate stand-by, change incandescent bulbls)
• Economical incentives (dual tariff)
• Demand response

Customer benefits Societal benefits Utility benefits

• Satisfy electricity demands
• Reduce costs (bills)
• Improve value of service
• Maintain/improve lifestyle
and productivity
•Reduce environmental • Lower cost of service
degradation •Improve operating efficiency,
• Conserve resources flexibility
• Protect global • Reduce capital needs
environment • Improve customer service
• Maximize customer
welfare

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Types of Load shape
the reduction of utility loads, the increase of utility loads, more
more or less equally, during all or less equally, during all or
or most hours of the day most hours of the day

the reduction of utility the improvement of system

load primarily during load factor by building
periods of peak demand load in off-peak periods

the reduction of utility loads during

periods of peak demand, while at set up utility options to
the same time building load in off- alter customer energy
peak periods. consumption on an as-
needed basis, as in
Load shifting typically does not interruptible/ curtailable
substantially alter total electricity agreements.
sales.

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Demand side management vs Demand Response

Demand response (active demand side management)

Demand Response (DR) is a term used for programs designed to encourage end-
users to make short-term reductions in energy demand in response to a price signal
from the electricity hourly market, or a trigger initiated by the electricity grid
operator. Typically, DR actions would be in the range of 1 to 4 hours and include
turning off or dimming banks of lighting, adjusting HVAC levels, or shutting down a
portion of a manufacturing process. Alternatively, onsite generation can be used to
displace load drawn from the electricity power grid.

Demand Side Management

Demand Side Management (DSM) programs encourage the end user to be more
energy efficient. DSM measures can include lighting retrofits, building automation
upgrades, re-commissioning, HVAC improvements, variable frequency drives, etc.

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Type of loads involved in DR programs

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Demand response event timing

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ENERNOC
Another story of success

EnerNOC is one of the largest providers of energy

management equipment and services for:
• Commercial buildings
• Public sector buildings,
• Industrial customers,
• Electric power grid operators and utilities.

It provides demand response services that maintain real-

time balance between electricity supply and demand,
solutions for energy conservation and efficiency, and
consulting services for energy supply management.

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How it works:

Electricity utility companies

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Thanks!
Any questions?