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Final Viva
Presentation Overview
Background Literature review and gaps in the literature Research Methodology Model framework Input data requirements Development of tools Model Verification and Validation Sample results Summary of research findings Significant contributions Recommendations for Delhi Limitations of research Contribution
Air quality Global climate Side effects or externalities affecting human health incidences of accidents congestion increasing travel time global environment via CO2 Passenger traffic in India is likely to grow at more than 8% per year (source : Ramnathan & Parikh, 1999) Vehicular emission alone account for 60 % of total pollution (Source: )
Background
Automobile Emissions
Evaporative Emissions
Running Losses
Refueling Emissions
Exhaust Emissions
Two Processes Combustion (Exhaust System) Evaporation (Fuel Storage and Delivery System)
Pollutants
Carbon dioxide CO2 Methane CH4 Nitrous oxide NOx Carbon monoxide CO Sulfur dioxide SO2 Particulate matter PM Non-methane volatile organic compounds CO2 is by far the most prominent GHG produced by this sector
Measures suggested
Cleaner fuels Improvement in engine efficiency Policies to manage the demand for travel
Complexity in Implementation
Presence of feedback loops within the system Find balance between technological and travel demand measures Behavioural response of transport users to policies
Cont.
Literature Classification
Transport Infrastructure
Activity based travel demand models treat travel as being derived from the demand for personal activities such as work, shopping, personal business, and recreation(Ben-Akiva et al., 1996). Traffic Simulation Models simulate the vehicle travel through a network influenced by real time traffic flows (Lenin & Yu, 2001). Emission Rate models These models provide the estimates of emission rates at which different pollutants are emitted during the vehicle use. These models are integrated with travel demand models for estimating emission inventories.
System Dynamics has found its application in diverse areas ranging from industrial system to health care system, from corporate planning to environmental planning.
Khanna (1986, 1989) has developed an urban transportation model for Delhi region. The model contains four sub sectors: socio-economic, transportation, energy, and environment. Various policies regarding petrol price, fuel consumption, bus fare, improvement in bus service etc. have been experimented with the model. Impact of introducing exclusive bus lanes, light transit rail system, use of catalytic converters have been studied. Sterman (2000) has used System dynamics methodology to understand the sources of policy resistance in a dynamic system (eg. Transportation system). A simple causal model is presented to illustrate the futility of road building activity to reduce traffic congestion. It is due to the presence of feedback loops in such complex and dynamic systems. Ghahramani & Bindra (1999), have used SD approach to predict traffic flow characteristics and travel time on each network links A macrolevel model of goods transportation growth by possible alternative modes has been suggested by Piattelli et al., (2002) as a decision support tool for policy making
Regions geographic size Population density pattern Distance between destinations e Topography of the region GEOGRAPHICAL SITUATION Housing Pattern
Travel Regulations
Developmental activity of the region Provision of the infrastructural facility for transport Funding for technological innovations Restrictions on vehicular Movements POLITICAL
Traffic Volume + +
Air Pollution +
Road Capacity
Vehicular Emissions
=
Pressure to reduceCongestion +
Congestion on Road
Policy measures
Emission Analysis
Travel activity
MODEL INTEGRATION
Policy evaluation module Technological changes in fuel and engine technology. Travel demand management measures Behavioural response of transport users Travel demand Estimates by considering the impact of policy intervention on input variables. Emission module
EMISSION INVENTORY
EIi = VNm,j AUm,j EFi,m,j Where EIi = Emission inventory of pollutant i summed over all modes m VNm,j =Vehicle number of mode m using fuel j AUm,j = Average vehicle utilization of mode m using fuel j in Km/day EFi,m,j = Emission Factor of pollutant i in gms/Km for vehicle of mode m using fuel j
EFi,m,j
TPTD TPTD
VOm,j VOm,j
EIi = TPTD
1 VOm,j
EFi,m,j
Total Activity
Load Factor
CO2 CO HC
NOx PM SO2
Benzene
Butadine
Zero emission
Research Methodology
DEVELOP SCENARIOS With alternative assumptions in growth in vehicle engine technology, vehicle population, alternative fuel etc. till 2025 TEST ALTERNATIVE EMISSION CONTROL POLICIES Vehicle occupancy Emission factor Modal split Bus lane Road construction Strengthen public transport etc.
COLLECT INPUT DATA Vehicle occupancy Average vehicle travel/day Modal split Vehicle number and age Speed range etc.
SELECT TOOL System Dynamics Causal loop Stock and flow diagram Spread sheet DEVELOP MODEL Emission module Policy evaluation module Congestion module Vehicle population module
Modeling Methodology
Should dynamically link different factors affecting transportation system such as Vehicle population Congestion on the roads Travel behaviour Vehicle travel Growth in transport infrastructure (road construction etc.) Regulatory and taxation mechanism etc.
Spreadsheet Large amount of data can be inputted and manipulated easily Open ended Non visual
System dynamics Inputting and manipulating large data is cumbersome C losed structure Visual depiction of interrelatedness
Proposed model Integrates spreadsheet and system dynamics model Inputting and manipulating large data is easy C losed structure Visually depicts interrelatedness amongst variables Dynamic data exchange during simulation
Scenario Developme nt
Model Improvement
Model Validation
Flow Diagram
Technology
Vehicle Population
Economic
Fuel type
Car pooling + Toll free High Occupancy Lane + Changes + Need to Manage Travel Demand + D
+ Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle Number/Travel + + Induced Travel + A + + C B Air Pollution + + Health related Problem &Climate Change + Adaptation of New Technology + H Pressure to Reduce Emissions + Search for Environmentally Friendly Technology/Alternative Fuels + Research activities Curbs on Polluting Vehicles + Running Cost Fuel Efficiency of Vehicles Attractiveness of Polluting Vehicles
in modal split
Leisure Trips
Road Construction
+ E Pressure to Road Capicity reduceCongestion Congestion on Road + Vehicle Speed + Adequacy of G + Public Transport Public Transport + Travel Time + F Fare Public Transport Network + L Size of the Region Within Desired
+ Attractiveness of Driving J
+ Vehicle Use +
Vehicle Travel
Modules
Vehicle population module Total number of registered vehicles in different category Vehicles registered every year Retirement age Mode conversion Congestion Module Road capacity Vehicle travel and Vehicle number & Vehicle size Emission module Vehicle travel Emission factor gms/km Fuel type Policy Evaluation module Impact of alternative measures is assessed
Model Overview
Congestion module Vehicle size Vehicle travel Vehicle population Induced Travel Vehicle population growth rate Impact of Metro rail Provision of pedestrian lane Modal shift Vehicles on road
Vehicle Population module
Vehicle registered per year Vehicle retirement Non motorised transport Metro rail
Emission module Speed related emission factors User defined modal share Passenger travel Impact of metro
Policy Evaluation module User defined vehicle occupancy Supply induced travel demand Passenger travel demand Use of alternative fuels Pollution inventory level
Modal Shift
Vehicle Occupancy
Vehicle Travel
Travel Demand
Causal relation between vehicle population, road congestion and travel demand measures
Vehicle Retirement
+ +
Vehicle Population
+
Development and Implementation o f Alternative Transport Mode Implementation of + Travel Demand Measures Search for Alternative Transport Mode
+ + +
Vehicle
+
Road Congestion
Road Capacity
+
Road Construction
TNRV VAR
VRR
DVR
T ravel tim e
+
R oadcapacity
+
T raffic volu m e
+
V eh icle em ission
Congestion level
CER SW CRR DNG NGF CL
TN
SDS
RCI
SCF
ER MVNOEB
PRR
UDVO IIBO
MVT
SPKTM
MVNOIB MVNOEB
Important parameters
Congestion Index (CI)
Congestion in the proposed model is defined as an index called congestion index. It is a measure of congestion relative to congestion in some base year for which its value is taken as one. CI = Vehicle number Vehicle size index Vehicle travel index Road capacity Index.
It represents the relative road space requirement of different vehicles. It is defined in terms of passenger car units, which is a measure of space occupied by different vehicles on road.
Vehicle Travel Index (VTI) is a relative measure of changes in vehicle travel with respect to average vehicle travel. When there is no change in vehicle travel its value is one.
It is the ratio of road capacity measured in terms of km length of road in the base year to road capacity in any other year .
Two speeds have been defined in the model corresponding to minimum and baseline CI for different categories of vehicles. Speed corresponding to CI equal to one is defined as the normal speed and that corresponding to minimum CI is defined as the reference speed. It is assumed that the reference speed is the maximum speed which any vehicle can attain in free flow conditions. Vehicle speed is linked to CI.
Supply induced travel is defined as the change in vehicle travel as a result of change in capacity of transportation system. SIT = AU SITDF AU - Average vehicle utilization per day SITDF - Supply induced travel demand factor SITDF varies as the congestion index varies
Modal Split (MS) Metro Travel Demand Share (MTDS) Modified Vehicle Number (MVN)
It represents the actual numbers of vehicles plying on the roads at any given time, which may be different from the vehicle number obtained from the vehicle registration records.
Stead (1999) has applied correction factor to account for the variation in emission due to change in vehicle occupancy. The correction factor (CF) is calculated as the ratio of present car occupancy and future car occupancy. EIi = VNm,j CF AUm,j EFi,m,j
It is a function of vehicle occupancy, vehicle number and vehicle travel per day. PTD = Occupancy * Vehicle Number * Vehicle travel per day
It is linked to road congestion through SITDF, and its value may change during dynamic simulation
To realistically assess the impact of vehicle speed on emissions average emission factor should be linked to the vehicle speed.
SITDF= 1 SITDF 1-0.18 (Linear) SITDF 1-0.01 (Linear) SITDF 1-0.18 (Exp) SITDF 1-0.01 (Exp) SITDF 1-0.001 (Exp)
Sensitivity Analysis
Growth dynamics of CL for alternative SITDF
0.5 0 0.1
3.5 3 2.5
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
CL
CL
Years
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Model validation
Tests of Model Structure Model Structure Verification Test Parameter Verification Test Extreme Condition Test High Level of Supply Induced Travel Zero Supply Induced Travel Model Behaviour Test Dimensional Consistency Boundary Adequacy Test (Face value test) Behaviour Sensitivity Test Extreme Condition Test All Vehicles Running on Solar Cell Metro rail meets full passenger travel demand
40000
30000 20000
BCNG 4BCNG
10000
1980
0 0 1,980
1990
24 1,990 10
2000
24 2,000 20
2010
13 2,010 30
12,020 3 40
2020
TNRV(*,CO2)
TNRV(*,CO2)
Static (S)
Dynamic (D)
CO2
Dynamic interaction yields lower value of emissions. True only with present assumptions.
2-Wheeler TD VT 54.06 27.5 63.75 27.5 77.63 27.5 89.97 27.5 100.08 27.5 106.3 27.5 61.95 28.96 72.94 30.53 88.53 30.75 102.25 30.68 112.88 30.61 119.16 30.66
CO2
Car/Jeep TD VT 50.09 41 85.09 41 124.7 41 169.48 41 212.13 41 245.13 41 60.77 43.18 101.13 45.51 145.85 45.85 196.66 45.74 242.83 45.64 277.68 45.72
3-Wheeler TD VT 4.22 109.6 4.05 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.22 109.6 4.61 115.43 4.54 121.66 4.71 122.55 4.71 122.26 4.71 121.99 4.71 122.21
Taxi TD 1.2 2.2 3.48 4.17 4.86 5.55 1.45 2.67 4 4.77 5.54 6.3 VT 82 82 82 82 82 82 86.36 91.02 91.69 91.48 91.27 91.43
Bus TD 90.12 125.72 174.75 214.75 241.32 266.47 94.49 132.84 181.85 219.43 244.95 269.99 VT 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 Total 211 297 406 508 592 659 236 332 448 556 642 711
CO
Avg Speed 41 33 26 20 16 15 59 66 67 66 66 67
CI 1.23 1.59 1.98 2.39 2.72 2.9 0.62 0.44 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.42
1800 1600 1400 Tonnes/day 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2005 S/UR/BAU 2010 2015 D/UR/BAU/25NG 2020 2025 0 2000 2005 S/UR/BAU 2010
Year
2015 D/UR/BAU/25NG
2020
2025
Passenger Travel
50000 40000 Tonnes 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
CO2
Total Travel
800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
D/UR/BAU
D/UR/BAU/25NG
D/UR/BAU
D/UR/BAU/25NG
CO
D/UR/BAU
NOx
S/UR/BAU
D/BL/BAU Total CI Travel CO 2 1.04 212 12045 1.25 291 16637 1.44 390 22452 1.62 479 28282 1.75 548 33159 1.82 605 37678
CO2
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
S/UR/BAU
S/UR/ME2
D/UR/BAU
D/UR/ME2
Table-6.6
S/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 212 12067 297 17481 406 25141 509 34302 592 43621 659 52123 D/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 211 11999 290 16575 388 22391 476 28247 545 33156 601 37700
In dynamic scenarios not possible to find trend in emissions. In dynamic system difficult to know which loop dominates the dynamics. Dominance changes as various nonlinearities come in to play.
D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795 D/UR/VO2 Total Travel CO2 209 11887 286 16418 387 18938 481 20989 556 21839 620 22448
D/PL/BAU Total Travel CO 2 211 11999 290 16575 388 22391 476 28247 545 33156 601 37700 D/PL/VO2 Total Travel CO2 211 11999 290 16575 393 19102 488 21133 565 21937 631 22522
NOx 98 95 91 80 59 65
NOx 96 94 90 79 60 66
Pedestrian lane with rise in vehicle occupancy leads to rise in emissions as compared to rise in occupancy without pedestrian lane
NOx 98 95 91 80 59 65
Percentage reduction
S/UR/VO2 2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025 0 33.28 52.93 0 25.53 40.58 0 41.12 54.27 0 29.66 35.63 0 32.79 40.1 0 23.11 22.16 0 31.38 34.63 0 24.39 24.04 0 30.06 48.63 0 26.86 44.27 0 27.66 48.94 0 12.3 25.8
D/UR/VO2
CI
NOx
D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Avg Speed
S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2 D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2 Tonnes/day
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Year 0 2000 2005 S/UR/BAU S/UR/VO2
CO2
D/UR/BAU D/UR/VO2
2010
2015
2020
2025
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
NOx 92 94 108 94 63 67
D/UR/BAU Total Travel CO 2 209 11887 286 16418 383 22264 470 28184 538 33181 594 37795
Avg. Speed 44 37 34 33 34 35
D/UR/MS2 Total Travel CO 2 209 10285 287 14875 386 19531 478 22075 557 21698 626 21657
NOx 90 88 97 84 58 63
Modal Split
Scenarios Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2-WheelerCar/Jeep 25.24 23.39 20.8 27.77 18.15 29.16 16.53 31.14 15.63 33.14 14.82 34.19 25.54 23.67 20.45 28.04 17.63 29.81 15.18 31.82 13.66 33.9 11.52 34.44 20.74 19.01 16.6 25.73 14.56 25.96 13.1 24.15 13.66 20.13 12.65 17.67 3-Wheeler 1.97 1.32 0.99 0.78 0.66 0.59 2 1.16 0.8 0.53 0.45 0.46 1.92 1.17 0.97 0.76 0.56 0.36 Taxi 0.56 0.72 0.81 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.57 0.5 0.56 0.42 0.3 0.29 0.55 0.6 0.64 0.67 0.7 0.73 Bus Metro Share 43.19 0 43.93 0 45.6 0 45.69 0 44.89 0 44.88 0 42.58 0 42.33 2.06 43.02 2.89 42.23 4.71 40.78 5.99 40.44 8.11 48.48 0 41.76 6 42.42 8.5 42.97 12.55 43.53 16.8 44.08 21.05 NMT 5.64 5.46 5.29 5.11 4.92 4.74 5.64 5.46 5.29 5.11 4.92 4.74 9.3 8.13 6.97 5.8 4.63 3.46
D/UR/BAU
S/UR/ME2
S&D/UR/MS2
CO2
S/UR/BAU
Insights gained..
The model uses a very aggregate level of data for estimation of emission inventories, traffic congestion and average vehicle speed. The model does not explicitly take into consideration the impact of changes in the land use pattern, growth in population, economic activity of the region etc. on the characteristics of transportation system.
Thank you !
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Utility of the Model Development of a tool to assess alternative long term policies to mitigate emissions from transport sector. Estimation of vehicle emission inventory Technological as well as travel demand measures can be assessed. Provides a micro world to the policy makers where they can test alternative policies before implementing Realistic assessment of policies as closed loop dynamic interaction amongst various factors affecting transport emissions is considered