Five Things Everyone Needs to Know

about Energy

* The era of cheap oil is over.

* Alternative energy, though promising, is not
ready to produce adequate supply.
* We need to invest quickly in new energy
sources.
* We need to learn to conserve energy.
* Energy is a national security issue.
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The US is the world’s number one oil consumer, using
more than 26 percent of the world’s oil.

Japan and China, are the next two leading consumers,

together account for 13 percent.

Roughly 11 percent of global oil production is devoted

purely to provide gasoline for cars and trucks on American
soil.

America spends more than $25 billion a year on Persian

Gulf oil.

But the US possesses only about 3 percent of proven

reserves. 2
Looking ahead, world oil consumption is likely to rise by
50 percent by 2020.

Also China, India and other developing countries need

more energy.

China alone is expected to quadruple its oil demands by

2020.

Think what will happen when three million more people on

this planet in the next 50 years.

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As the demand increases for a shrinking resource, so will
prices.

And as the prices increase, so will the paranoia and

uncertainty of the market-place, of consumers.

Once demand outstrips supply, it would be easy to envision

a scenario of financial panic and a global recession,
accompanied by political, economic, and social upheaval.

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But there is still time to alter this unwanted future, as long
as leaders-political, corporate, community, and
nongovernmental- commit themselves immediately to
pursuing alternatives to oil.

We must use technology to move away from oil.

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Why We Need to Cut Our Oil Dependence:

The top Risk Futures

1. National Security at Risk-Oil will become a geopolitical

weapon used between the oil producing and oil
consuming nations.
2. Global Warming Threat- the world is undergoing climate
change, which will have an adverse impact on the quality
of life, food production, economic growth, and financial
assets.
3. Middle East Conflict Exploding – between the Western
and Persian Gulf nations.
4. Public Health Risks Escalating – Environmental illnesses
such as cancer and threats to the food supply are on the
rise.
5. Increase Costs Inevitable- increase in oil demand will
drive the prices up.
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 The Path to Self-Reliance

The European strategy is to create a public that is

supportive and educated about the high cost of energy.

The strategy has allowed the Europeans to direct public

funds and support toward a lack of dependency on oil at
the precise time that actual oil reserves are diminishing.

European investments in nuclear, over the past decades, is

now handsomely pay off as oil prices continue to climb,
global energy competition by nations increases, and the
geopolitical realities of Middle East oil become fraught with
risk.
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 ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS OF
AMERICA’S OIL HABIT
• The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of greenhouse
gases from fossil fuel
use.
• Americans produce, per person, the most CO2
emissions of any citizens in the
world—more than 6.8 tons of CO2 per year, twice that of
Europeans.
• China produces only 1.1 tons per person per year.
• India produces 0.5 tons per person per year.
• The U.S. is the only major industrial nation that has
refused to ratify the
Kyoto Accord, which seeks to reduce carbon emissions
and limit greenhouse
gases.
8
CIA, IEEE, 2005
Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions
by Sector

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The Paradoxical Politics of Energy

The world is now facing of two different sorts of energy

anxiety.

1. Struggle for affordable fuel

2. The battle to combat climate change by reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases

In theory, these two worries point in the same direction.

The world’s leading economies need to find new and clean
sources of energy, decrease the dependence on fossil fuels.

The problem is that new forms of energy are not convincing

enough alternative to oil and gas.
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Some 97% of the American transport system is dependent
on oil- means dependence on fossil fuels.

As a result, in 2008 politicians will take a great deal about

the need to achieve a new international agreement on
climate change.

In July 2008, the G8 summit of industrialized nations to be

held in Japan, The Americans will insist that the next deal on
climate change must include China, India and other
developing nations.
The Chinese are genuinely alarmed about the implications of
climate change.

Any eventually deal will probably involve Americans and

Europeans essentially bribing the Chinese and Indians to cut
emissions. But the Chinese are very nervous about agreeing
to anything that might slow their economy down and create
unemployment. 11
Meanwhile, the drive to find new supplies of fossil fuels will go
on.. China will pursue more deals on oil with Sudan.

At home, China will keep opening new coal-fired power plants

at the rate of one plant per day, to the despair of global
warming activists around the world.

In Europe, the geopolitics of energy will be dominated by the

increasingly tense relationship between Russia and the EU.

The Russians will maintain their efforts to secure long term

deals to supply energy within the EU, while buying stakes in
energy companies inside the union.

The governments of western and central Europe will try to

reduce their dependence on Russia. 12
In 2008, the EU may agree a common policy to limit Russian
investment in EU energy assets-unless the Russians agree to
open up their own energy markets.

The Russian energy policy has been to lessen the involvement

of foreign companies in the Russian energy sector.

One deal to watch out for is the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas field.
Russia may try to put pressure on Exxon Mobil.

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The coming year may also see the intensification of an
emerging struggle to claim sovereignty over the Arctic.

The participants include Russia, Canada, America, Norway

and Denmark.

They are interested in stretches of tundra because of global

warming is making it easier to navigate the waters of the
Arctic-and to get access to the fossil fuels beneath the ice.

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The Politics of Petroleum Supply and
Demand

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 Canada

As oil prices topped $30 per barrel, the oil sands of Alberta became
economically viable and turned Canada into a
petro-state.

This emboldened some politicians to talk about refocusing exports

away from the US and toward Asia.

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 United States

Despite talk about “energy independence,” the world

biggest consumer shows little interest in cutting demand:
prices are up 140 percent since 2002, but the US still
uses 25 % of the world’s oil.

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 Latin America

Chavez and Bolivia’s Eve Morales may be nationalizing

their energy sectors, but look at the region.

Brazil has an ambitious plan to dominate biodiesel

exports, led by the private sector.

Colombia and Argentina have similar ideas.

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 VENEZUELA

Hugo Chavez has used his nation’s oil to embarrass

George W. Bush by offering cheap gas to poor Americans.
But until China can refine Venezuela’s heavy, sludgy crude,
the truth is that Chivez still needs the US as a customer.

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 NIGERIA

The good: oil has allowed Nigeria to pay off its debts.

The bad: Shell compares the Niger Delta to Chechnya and

Colombia. Militia violence cut output by 500,000 barrels
per day, and could threaten the May president election.

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 NORWAY

The national oil company, Stratoil, is unsually efficient for a

state monopoly.

The rub: North Sea oil is being depleted fast.

The Arctic ocean may hold more oil, but Norway faces a
nasty fight with Russia over which side owns the rights.

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 RUSSIA

Putin has put “resource nationalism” in the global political

lexicon.

Moscow has shut down private Russian firms and pushed

out Westerners even as it seeks foreign capital for the state
company, Rosnett.

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 CHINA

Even a 1 percent change in consumer’s economic growth

rate can move world oil demand up or down by 4 percent.

But China burns oil mostly in power plants, not for

transport, so a relatively rapid shift to other fuels is
possible.

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 IRAQ

Iraq has opened vast reserves that were shuttered under

Saddam Hussein, but no major oil company has cut a deal.

Amid escalating violence, Iraq now produces 900,000

fewer barrels per day than it did prior to the US invasion in
2003.

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 OPEC

While the cartel ends 2006 with uncharacteristic unity by

cutting production in order to keep prices, non-OPEC
producers sense opportunity. Does their simultaneous rise
of 1.7 million barrels per day sound like provocation?

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 IRAN

As long as oil remains tight and prices stay high. Mohmoud

Ahmadinejad’s inflammatory rhetoric and nuclear ambitions
will persist.

But as slack begins to appear in global oil supplies, the

threat of sanctions grows more likely.

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 ANGOLA

Peace with separatists in the Cabinda oil patch and

Chinese investment put Angola on track to pass Nigeria as
Africa’s top oil producer.

The main threat to a smooth 2007 election, President Jose’

Eduardo dos Santos’s health.

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 AFRICA

As a result, oil states are elbowing out foreigners. One

exception: chronically poor African nations like Chad and
Mauritania.

That’s why more than $40 billion is slated to be invested in

Africa’s oilfields by 2010, much of it from China.

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A NATURAL-GAS GANG
The world’s natural gas players
are showing their clout.

Gas consumption is rising, and the

world’s five leading exporters-
Algeria, Qatar, Iran, Russia and
Venezuela. The five discussed
creating an OPEC-like gas cartel
during the next meeting of the Gas
Exporting Countries Forum, in
Qatar on April 2007.

Global gas reserves, are even

more concentrated in the hands of
the few than oil reserve.
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 The Power Map of the Gas World

The gas market cluster around Eurasia and particular

Russia, which has used gas as a political weapon.

On the Barents Sea : the vast Shtokman gas field was to

the tapped by Western firms until Moscow intervened.

Georgia had its gas cut off after it accused Russia of

helping to sabotage pipelines.

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Europe suffered when Russian cut off Ukraine’s gas for
four days at the start of 2006. Cuts in supply of up to
30 percent were felt as far away as Germany and Italy.

In Central Asia, the US backs a trans-Caspian pipeline to

bypass Gasprom’s Euro-monopoly. But would the leader
like Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev be any better as a partner
than Russia?

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The Persian Gulf is home to Qatar’s giant gas fields-and to
Iran, which has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz to
liquefied natural-gas shipments to the West.

Sakhalin Island was to be the site of a huge gas project-

until Russia began threatening to revoke Shell’s permits to
develop it.

Burma and its gas reserves are being courted by Asian

rivals China and India.

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 THE FUTURE OF ENERGY
A variety of energy sources are emerging now that will offer
productive choices on the future. Some have the potential
to be significant in becoming viable alternatives to oil.

The following is a list of 6 requirements for future energy

sources that would make a difference in weaning us off the
oil habit and enabling a more sustainable global world.
New energy sources must be
• Abundant
• Reliable
• Renewable
• Clean
• Affordable
• Secure 34
 2030 ENERGY FORECAST
The global demand for energy will increase by 70 percent.

There will be a 50 percent increase in energy demand from

developing nations, especially China and India.

Energy access is an essential enabler of higher standards

of living in the developing world.

Increased energy access in the developed world will be

necessary to sustain productivity and growth.

Energy has become the leading global and national

security issue.
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 2030 ENERGY FORECAST (continued)
China’s energy needs will be double those of the U.S. and
the EU.

Renewable energy will account for more than 35 percent of total

global energy needs to offset reduced oil reserves.

Innovations like fusion, nanotechnology, and solar will replace

oil.

Distributed small scale, person-to-person electricity generation

will be sustainable.

Breakthroughs in hydrogen and renewable energy will provide

new energy supplies.
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DOE,CIA, 2005
 Hydrogen Energy
Hydrogen is the most plentiful gas in the universe.

It’s also a power house-it has the highest energy content

per unit of weight of any know fuel.

It’s abundant, reliable, renewable, clean ( a hydrogen-

powered car produces water as its exhaust), and secure
(because hydrogen is everywhere)

That leaves just one requirement-affordability.

The trick with hydrogen is that it never occurs by itself in

nature; it always combines with other elements, such as
oxygen or carbon. 37
At the moment, it’s quite costly to separate it from those
other elements and transfer it into fuel cells, which are the
standard storage technology for the form of energy.

In fact, the cost of doing so is greater than the current value

of the energy created.

Hydrogen-powered vehicles are coming in the future.

Hydrogen-generating power plants are further down the

road, but they are coming, too.

There is one in Iceland, the first of its kind to fuel a city.

In fact, the hydrogen economy, a holistic transportation

infrastructure, will arrive within 35 years.
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Hydrogen has problems other than high cost. It is unstable and
needs to be controlled.

The manufacture of hydrogen requires other energy usage, such

as nuclear or oil. The technology needed to store and pump
hydrogen into vehicles is still primitive and not yet adopted for
wide usage.

More than $5 billion is being spent around the globe by

government and industry for research and development.

The US has already launched a &1.2 billion hydrogen initiative.

The largest investment are being made by today at General

Motors, Shell, Exxon, BP, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Honda.

More than 20 governments are directing their energy

investments to hydrogen. 39
 WIND ENERGY
Wind energy is the fastest-growing energy technology.

Wind is actually a kind of solar energy- winds are created

by the uneven heating of the atmosphere by the sun, as
well as by the rotation of the earth and the uneven surface
of the planet.

For thousands of years, human have recognized the power

of the wind- to propel ships and provide mechanical power
to grind grain, pump water, and perform other tasks.

The future of wind energy, is in the large-scale production

of electricity through wind turbines. 40
Wind turns the turbine’s blades, which are connected to the
spinning shaft, which in turn is connected to a generator
that transforms the mechanical power into a power grid-just
like electricity produced by petroleum sources.

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In 1991, The US Department of Energy did an inventory of
wind energy in 3 states-North Dakota, Kansas and Texas
which can provide electricity for the entire needs of the
country. Wind generators typically generated about 300
kilowatts. Today the largest generators 5,000 kilowatts.

The tower is higher and the blades are longer.

The tower can be in a farmer’s field with the farmer farming

the land below the blades, as well as earning money from
the power generated.

Originally, wind cost about 40 cents per kilowatt-hour.

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Today, new technology wind farms in high-wind places cost
around 3 cents per kilowatt-hour.

The cost varies because the wind vary, but in a good

location wind energy is cheaper than energy from coal or
oil.

Some large wind projects are being planned.

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A wind company, Winergy Power, plans to generate 9,000
megawatts from a network of wind farms stretching along
the Atlantic coast.

Germany generates 16,000 megawatts todays-equivalent

of about 12 large power stations.

By 2020 Europe could be getting all in residential electricity

from wind if European governments get serious about
developing offshore wind resources, especially in the
NorthSea.

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 Megawatts and Negawatts

In California, the power-regulatory authority calculated how

much cheaper to save megawatts than to create new
megawatts.

If every household replaced 4 incandescent lightbulbs

(average 100 watts) with fluorescent lightbulbs (average 27
watts), burning 5 hours per day, that would save 22 million
kilowatt-hours per day-enough to shut down 17 power
stations.

If every household installed a solar power hot-water heater,

that could shut down another 67 power stations.
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The public utility commissions of California invented the
term “negawatts” (negative watts) to refer to electricity
saved.

The commission persuades power companies for lowering

electric consumption rather than increasing it.

The power company decided to meet demand with

negawatts rather than new power stations.

California has been one of the country’s greenest states for

decades. Now the state is further boosting its
environmental performance.

While the nation’s appetite for electricity has steadily

grown, California has become a model of energy efficiency.48
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 Nuclear Power
Technology can change rapidly, however, sometimes
needs to be looked at with fresh eye.

There are serious concern about traditional nuclear power.

1. Chernobyl experienced
2. Disposing of radioactive waste
3. facilities could help nations, or terrorists, obtain the
fuel to make atomic bombs.

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 Fourth-Generation Nuclear Power
It has been reinvented and specially designed to avoid problems
of traditional nuclear power.

Fourth-generation nuclear power stations need to satisfy the

following four criteria:
1. It is technically impossible for them to have a runaway chain action.
No accident, failure or human carelessness could produce mass
radiation. No matter what mistakes the operators make, the power
station is inherently safe.

2. Must be entirely divorced from the nuclear weapons industry.

It must be impossible to use their fuel to make atomic weapons.

3. The spent fuel must be easy to dispose of and must not leave
radiaoactive problems for future generations. No uranium could
possibly be in contact with the atmosphere or the environment.

4. Generate electricity at lower cost than with coal or oil power. 53

It is amazing that in the current intense arguments about
nuclear power, almost all politicians seem to have never
heard of fourth-generation nuclear power.

Designs for fourth-generation reactors have been developed

in various countries.

This kind of reactor was desined in South Africa.

A small prototype reactor was built in Beijing in 2004.

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 Potential in Developing Countries
Nowhere is new power more urgently needed than in China,
whose economy will grow rapidly.

China has massive medical problems caused by its extreme

pollution.

It will use solar and wind power, but its booming economy will
need more energy.

Chinese scientists have estimated that by 2050 China will need

300,000 megawatts of nuclear power- which can be the fourth-
generation nuclear power.

For developing countries, an alternative to building an expensive

power grid with power stations belching out pollutants, it makes
sense to have relatively small power units that are eco-friendly.55
56
Abundant energy will enable desert cities to bloom
spectacularly, as Abu Dhabi has done, by creating fresh
water from the sea.

Abundant energy and water will be critical to grand designs

for civilization.

At the same time buildings and cities will have become

“green” and machines will have become energy-efficient.

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 SOLAR POWER
It Tibet, many homes use homemade parabolic solar
reflectors, 5 feet wide, lined with silver paper. These focus
the sunlight onto a large iron cooking pot or kettle and keep
it hot for most of the day.

One of the best for generating electricity from sunlight is

the Astropower 120-watt photovoltaic panel.

Today, solar panels are small, designed to fit on

somebody’s roof.

If solar panels were designed to cover large areas, they

could be much less expensive and more efficient.
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Large field solar generation is planned in China, where it
doesn’t have to compete with the subsidies of the oil
industry.

Electricity generated from large-field solar systems could

become cheaper than electricity generated from oil. If they
are produced in large quantities, the cost will become more
lower.

A home may use rooftop solar panels to heat its swimming

pool water and at the same time generate electricity.

City skyscrapers will have glass walls facing the sun that
are made of photovoltaic material that enables windows to
generate electricity as well as let in heat.
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